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Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

arstechnica.com

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Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#41

Post by dham »

dragonwriter wrote: post #39
dham wrote: post #4

Why is everything so black and white in studies, hospital reporting and government policies? There are 5 groups of people. There's really more if you want to get detailed but here are the basics. Vaccinated Vaccinated then infection Unvaccinated - Previous infection Previous infection then vaccinated Unvaccinated - No previous infection Does anyone care about nuance anymore? Just saying vaccinated and unvaccinated is…

> Why is everything so black and white in studies Because getting to black and white and cutting through fuzziness is the whole point of expending resources on a study . > Does anyone care about nuance anymore? Just saying vaccinated and unvaccinated is a disservice to the population Not if your goal is to isolate the effect of vaccine rather than to do some kind of fuzzy emotional handholding to people's instinctive…

> Not if your goal is to isolate the effect of vaccine rather than to do some kind of fuzzy emotional handholding to people's instinctive, non-fact-driven subjective feelings about what groupings are important.

I mean all the groups I presented have some sort of merit to them based off research (delayed 2nd shot), at least observational studies (previous infection then vaccine) or guidelines from CDC on other viruses (previous infection). Doesn't seem emotional.

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#42

Post by jasonlaramburu »

iammisc wrote: post #31
jasonlaramburu wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they’re more likely to take risks out of perceived protection. Well designed studies do take these factors into account and ensure a sufficiently large and diverse sample size.

How can you possibly find the group that represents the intersection of both 'covid is no big deal and I'll continue to live my life as normal' and 'you should take the covid vaccine'? This is like trying to find a pro life obstetrician who performs abortion. Other than the mentally ill, no one holds those two beliefs honestly at the same time. If it does exist, it probably doesn't in numbers large enough to matter.…

Double blind technique should eliminate a lot of these confounders, eg if you don’t know whether or not you’ve received the vaccine, your behavior presumably wouldn’t change much. However that is admittedly harder with the MRNA vaccines since most people have some mild side effects after the second dose.

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#43

Post by iammisc »

jasonlaramburu wrote: post #42
iammisc wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you possibly find the group that represents the intersection of both 'covid is no big deal and I'll continue to live my life as normal' and 'you should take the covid vaccine'? This is like trying to find a pro life obstetrician who performs abortion. Other than the mentally ill, no one holds those two beliefs honestly at the same time. If it does exist, it probably doesn't in numbers large enough to matter.…

Double blind technique should eliminate a lot of these confounders, eg if you don’t know whether or not you’ve received the vaccine, your behavior presumably wouldn’t change much. However that is admittedly harder with the MRNA vaccines since most people have some mild side effects after the second dose.

Those distrustful of vaccination are unlikely to sign up for trials

Or are the trials being conducted clandestinely?

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#44

Post by [deleted] »

BoHerfIVJrEsq wrote: post #2

I find this unpersuasive. I don't want to hear anything from the CDC. I don't trust the CDC because (among other reasons) they recently silently redefined "vaccine" to not include the idea that it provides immunity. https://web.archive.org/web/20210826113846/https://www.cdc.g... https://web.archive.org/web/20210902194040/https://www.cdc.g... Vitamin D might qualify as a vaccine under the new definition, or some other…

[deleted]

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#45

Post by moistly »

BoHerfIVJrEsq wrote: post #11
moistly wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Upvoters, colorless green ideas sleep furiously. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorless_green_ideas_sleep_...

Could you clarify your point?

I posted a grammatically correct, but semantically nonsensical statement. The point of doing so? To illustrate that fun nonsense can garner upvotes, while bullshit nonsense gets downvoted.

Get vaccinated.

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#46

Post by moistly »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #20
moistly wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s me and my worms, buddy. Royal worms.

Typical anti scientific FUD spreading trolls then. Got it.

Live virus vaccination is (was) a thing. There is nothing unscientific about stating that there are only two classes of people: vaccinated against sars-cov-2 spike protein, and not vaccinated against the same.

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#47

Post by throwawaylinux »

moistly wrote: post #46
throwawaylinux wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typical anti scientific FUD spreading trolls then. Got it.

Live virus vaccination is (was) a thing. There is nothing unscientific about stating that there are only two classes of people: vaccinated against sars-cov-2 spike protein, and not vaccinated against the same.

Stop peddling this idiotic pseudoscientific drivel designed to misinform people.

Re: Unvaccinated are 5X more likely to catch Delta, 11X more likely to die

#48

Post by angelzen »

stickyricky wrote: post #7

Hoping someone on HN knows the answer to this. Can someone explain what "5X more likely to catch Delta" means? I'm vaccinated. If I'm around someone with a delta infection, do I have 5X the amount of time to get away? Can I receive 5X the amount of viral particles with the same infection risk? Is my immune system response 5X as effective at preventing an infection? I'm assuming its a population level analysis and not…

Possibly a side effect of biased data collection.

"... I had gone to a house party in Montgomery County. There were 15 adults there, all of us fully vaccinated."

"... Then, I started to hear that a few other people who had been at the party were getting sick. Then a few more. At this point, 11 of the 15 have tested positive for COVID."

"... The CDC announced in May that it was only going to collect data on breakthrough infections that led to hospitalization or death, which are fortunately rare."

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-0804-bre...

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