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England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#81

Post by scrollaway »

MatteoFrigo wrote: post #61
azalemeth wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very true. I personally find it mad that the UK is the nation with the highest covid infection rate in western europe, with ~30k new cases/day. Long covid is a real, debilitating condition and if anything is going to affect the young -- who are least vaccinated -- the most, thus creating a long-term disease burden and morbidity cost on both those individuals and the country as a whole. Ignoring the human cost…

You have the right to be unhappy. However, looking at the latest data from the UK at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... , it is not clear whether pushing for more vaccines will change the situation in any way that makes you happy. For example, that report says that 97% of the blood donors has some kind of antibodies, either from vaccine or previous infection. This number is almost 100% fo…

Blood donors are going to be underrepresentative of people with a fear of needles, people who don't trust the medical system, and be overrepresentative of selfless people.

I suspect an extremely strong correlation between giving blood and being vaccinated.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#82

Post by quotemstr »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #70
NomeChomsky wrote: post #3

Good. There is no evidence to support them. You can still transmit the virus whilst double vaccinated. They do not slow spread only hospitalisation.

That's wrong. The vaccine is moderately effective at preventing the spread of early variants. It's not very effective at preventing the spread of Delta from an infected person, but it's quite effective (but far from perfect) at preventing people from getting infected in the first place, thus overall significantly slowing spread . https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1

Vaccine passport proponents routinely cite "slowing [the] spread" as a reason to impose vaccination requirements despite discoveries earlier this year showing that vaccinated individuals can still spread the disease. In light of these discoveries, vaccine passports and other coercive measures don't make any dense.

Delta has an R value of 8. That makes it one of the most infectious diseases we know about. Future variants are likely to be even more contagious. (That's the evolutionary pattern we see in other diseases.) Even if universal vaccination were to somewhat reduce the R value, the R value would remain above the critical threshold value of 1.0 regardless --- because R starts out so high naturally. We know R is above one post-vaccination because highly-vaccinated places like Iceland and Gibraltar see COVID waves despite near-universal vaccination. If R is above one, everyone will get the virus sooner or later anyway no matter what, and we are not operating in the regime in which universal vaccination has the kind of large positive externalities that might justify a universal vaccination program for other diseases (e.g. measles).

It's only large positive externalities that can justify state intervention in individual health. (The 1905 SCOTUS case that people have been citing discusses the issue in detail.) Current COVID vaccines, due to the R-value threshold effect, don't have the large positive externalities attached to previous vaccines.

As an analogy: a leather jacket might reduce a bullet's velocity to some extent, but that bullet will still penetrate and kill you. Nothing short of body armor that can actually stop the bullet is effective. Likewise, unless the vaccine can reduce R below 1 --- and no current COVID vaccine can do that --- universal vaccination cannot stop the spread of the disease.

The vaccines may be beneficial, but being beneficial, by itself, doesn't present a case for coercive state action. If it did, we'd probably all eat healthier and exercise more --- and we'd be less free as a people.

There are real social and economic costs to creating a "papers, please!" culture and setting a precedent for state intervention in individual medical choices. As it stands, the low risk posed by COVID and the insufficiency of current vaccines can't the coercive state programs being proposed around the world.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#83

Post by tinus_hn »

ceesharp wrote: post #77
tinus_hn wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, these only put the health system under stress that we are used to. Remember that story about that guy in Mississippi who had trouble finding an ICU bed? If you look at the real data it turns out the vast majority of these beds are not in use by people with covid, but by people with other problems, like heart diseases. You know, the problems caused by that lifestyle that’s a-ok because we’re used to the problems i…

The difference is that in a very short period of time, numerous people can end up with the virus. The diseases you listed are distributed over the year. You don't see thousands of people getting a heart attack in a week in the same area. COVID puts the healthcare system at risk because it is a sudden surge of cases which ends up being overwhelming.

What is the difference with ‘we’re used to it’? The things you describe also apply to the flu, yet no one would consider requiring vaccination cards for that. It just turns out there already are beds for people that get that because we are used to it.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#84

Post by paul_f »

azalemeth wrote: post #44
cstross wrote: post #2

Note this is specific to England . Other countries in the UK are following their own course -- the Scottish government agreed in principle to introduce vaccine passports as of a week ago and will require them for entry to large venues from October 1st: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-passports-requir... The NHS is a fully devolved issue, with separate NHS organizations in Wales, England, Northern Ireland,…

This is very true. I personally find it mad that the UK is the nation with the highest covid infection rate in western europe, with ~30k new cases/day. Long covid is a real, debilitating condition and if anything is going to affect the young -- who are least vaccinated -- the most, thus creating a long-term disease burden and morbidity cost on both those individuals and the country as a whole. Ignoring the human cost…

I think we are long past "short" anything related to COVID. It is now clearly endemic and will persist indefinitely. People need to make their own decisions on how to protect themselves and get on with their lives.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#85

Post by paul_f »

roenxi wrote: post #65
tchalla wrote: post #39

> "I've never liked the idea of saying to people you must show your papers or something to do what is just an everyday activity, but we were right to properly look at it. We regularly show papers for everyday activities - library card for reading books, ID for a hotel stay, driving license for driving a car, ID to pickup a parcel etc.

But those are largely proving your identity in a situation where you wish to identify yourself. Proving an unrelated fact about yourself solely because the government thinks so is a different thing.

I don't understand the downvotes. This is a legitimate distinction.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#86

Post by skytreader »

throwaway316943 wrote: post #46
throwawaylinux wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could ban elderly and overweight people and other such undesirables^Wvulnerable people from civil society too. For their own good.

This is snarky but poses a real question. If we ban people from spaces or events due to their vulnerability to COVID then why do we not do the same for those vulnerable to other diseases? Flu is a good example for the young and elderly since it poses a significant risk. It would strain the argument but you could make a case for banning the obese from fast food restaurants based on this reasoning as well.

Don't forget what makes COVID19 so insidious: without testing, it takes time before an infected contagious person shows symptoms. By the time they decide to stay off public spaces, they have already potentially spread the virus.

With the common flu, you know almost instantly so you stay home to recover.

Fat people know their condition and it's their choice to eat fast food anyway. And obesity is also non contagious.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#87

Post by rszfa100 »

libertine wrote: post #71
belter wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cases in Portugal are staying stable neither growing or diminishing. Looking at the curve for deaths there seems to be no correlation between deaths and the vaccination program. https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-09-10-Covid-19.-O-oitav...

I can't even take your comment seriously.

Why? The graph under "Total de mortes" shows that the number of fatalities is higher right now than last year (when no one was vaccinated).

We don't know yet if the clearly seasonal winter outbreak will be the same as last year (or worse).

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#88

Post by oakesm9 »

roenxi wrote: post #65
tchalla wrote: post #39

> "I've never liked the idea of saying to people you must show your papers or something to do what is just an everyday activity, but we were right to properly look at it. We regularly show papers for everyday activities - library card for reading books, ID for a hotel stay, driving license for driving a car, ID to pickup a parcel etc.

But those are largely proving your identity in a situation where you wish to identify yourself. Proving an unrelated fact about yourself solely because the government thinks so is a different thing.

Showing your ID to buy alcohol because the govenment has decided that under 18's cannot buy it. That's widely practiced and accepted without issue

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#89

Post by quotemstr »

paul_f wrote: post #85
roenxi wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But those are largely proving your identity in a situation where you wish to identify yourself. Proving an unrelated fact about yourself solely because the government thinks so is a different thing.

I don't understand the downvotes. This is a legitimate distinction.

Discussions generally don't sway people. When someone has a fixed worldview and you present facts that undermine that worldview, he perceives you as a threat (like he would a large bear) and reacts to those facts with the same fight-or-flight response that threats generally elicit.

Online, this fight-or-flight response manifests as people downvoting you, flagging you, doxxing you, and so on for presenting hard-to-refuse facts and arguments contrary to any entrenched but incorrect narrative.

The problem is exacerbated on HN by high-karma accounts having the ability to flag discussions to death without engagement and essentially end them unilaterally.

Re: England vaccine passport plans ditched, health secretary says

#90

Post by Nextgrid »

roenxi wrote: post #65
tchalla wrote: post #39

> "I've never liked the idea of saying to people you must show your papers or something to do what is just an everyday activity, but we were right to properly look at it. We regularly show papers for everyday activities - library card for reading books, ID for a hotel stay, driving license for driving a car, ID to pickup a parcel etc.

But those are largely proving your identity in a situation where you wish to identify yourself. Proving an unrelated fact about yourself solely because the government thinks so is a different thing.

Providing ID to enter a bar or nightclub (where some have these machines which no doubt capture and store that data) is commonplace even though the venue has no business knowing who the person is.
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