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Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

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Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#111

Post by lamontcg »

listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

You're fine, you got a complimentary booster shot early. On average the best immunity is recovered and vaccinated one way or the other, so you may be better off than your wife now. Vaccine breakthroughs were expected so there's nothing wrong with you.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#112

Post by AzzieElbab »

sterlind wrote: post #102
AzzieElbab wrote: post #58

The virus is here to stay, vaccines or no vaccines. We need to learn to treat it effectively or accept vaccine boosters every 6 months

I'm fine with vaccine boosters every six months. Please! Sign me up!

Me too but I am old.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#113

Post by sjg007 »

listless wrote: post #106
glugc wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now in 2021 we are going to force kids to interact with their peers with a facemask on to make sure they never get to build a competent immune system.

I’m with you on this. I think kids getting it is the key to us getting out of the cycle. Despite media hysteria, the risk to children is extremely low. So low that the UK isn’t going to vaccinate most kids at all. https://www.newsweek.com/uk-wont-vaccinate-most-children-tee...

Please do explain exactly how will kids get us out of the cycle?

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#114

Post by curation »

nostromo wrote: post #36
listless wrote: post #17

> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera” I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvacc…

Natural immunity is 13 times stronger than what we get from the vaccines, according to data from Israel. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... We probably didn’t even need to waste vaccines on people who had already recovered.

As a horror writer I cannot help but imagine moralizing scenarios where in the west, we vaccinate and lockdown and hoard vaccine and have immunity from vaccines, while in the Global South and places forced to reach herd immunity are realized to be immune to all variants while we must race to make and inject ourselves with boosters against each new variant. A variant arrives that is even more deadly and it wipes us out while the Global South survives better and ascends. I'm always writing stories!

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#115

Post by angelzen »

sjg007 wrote: post #113
listless wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m with you on this. I think kids getting it is the key to us getting out of the cycle. Despite media hysteria, the risk to children is extremely low. So low that the UK isn’t going to vaccinate most kids at all. https://www.newsweek.com/uk-wont-vaccinate-most-children-tee...

Please do explain exactly how will kids get us out of the cycle?

They'll develop robust natural immunity with negligible risk, then grow up and become adults with robust natural immunity.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#116

Post by sjg007 »

angelzen wrote: post #115
sjg007 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do explain exactly how will kids get us out of the cycle?

They'll develop robust natural immunity with negligible risk, then grow up and become adults with robust natural immunity.

I think your logic is wrong.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#117

Post by _red »

syops wrote: post #55
_red wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If thats true why the boosters? Or are you claiming the boosters have been upgraded with latest variants?

It’s easy to find the answer to your question. One does not have to deliberately wallow in ignorance.

So they vaccines work, you just need to take them every 6 months or they dont work...and they haven't been updated for latest variants but mandating their universal use isn't putting selection pressure which will cause further 'breakthru cases'?

The anti-science of your belief system is pretty astounding.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#118

Post by throwaway210222 »

_red wrote: post #12
syops wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus mutates quickly so the vaccine can't be expected to be as effective at new variants compared to the variants it was designed to combat.

If thats true why the boosters? Or are you claiming the boosters have been upgraded with latest variants?

> Or are you claiming the boosters have been upgraded with latest variants?

Ok, what would YOU do if you ran Pfizer or Moderna?

1. ship v1.0 of your vaccine with mRNA designed for the original COVID variant

2. modify your vaccine to be effective against the delta variant?

As expected, here is a joint statement from Pfizer and Moderna stating exactly that. [1]

[1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#119

Post by charbonneau »

cogman10 wrote: post #59
meheleventyone wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lower hospitalization rates amongst the vaccinated seem to suggest less people are getting seriously ill.

Which is an important point. While the vaccinated are still getting COVID, and even sometimes ending up in the ICU, they very often aren't ending up hospitalized or in the ICU. The vast majority of ICU patients are unvaccinated [1]. [1] https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-...

> https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/2021/08/27/adult-...

It's frankly irresponsible to say this. We are talking about what's essentially an exploratory study that needs a LOT of followup before taking action and pushing it in a way that's going to cause people to run scared.

Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity

#120

Post by [deleted] »

TheBlight wrote: post #88
gfodor wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is presently to my understanding a lot of claims of severity reduction, but I would like to see evidence and an explanation for it. My working model is that a consistent alternative explanation is the vaccine reduces infection risk dramatically but once infected severity can be the same.

I've been trying to find accurate signals of this and haven't found much. I've only really spent time looking into the Data: Graph from the CDC: https://i.imgur.com/Ql25IjB.png Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm Spreadsheet based on weekly UK data: https://i.imgur.com/yySYFyd.png Source (PDF warning): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... And a Twitter thread on Isra…

[deleted]
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