The bargain at the heart of the BBC is fraying

Wait and see. Netflix was once the place for new fresh shows but it's a victim of it's shareholders value. Most shows don't survive the 1st season. If the BBC tries to copy Netflix they will lose, if they stick to their last it might work out.

Even Netflix and Disney can't buy them all.

My kids have no concept of linear TV. My 9 year old came back and told me that a friend had a broken TV as when they turned it on, the program was already half way through.

Their 'channels' are netflix, amazon and disney. When I had the choice and they were pre-school then sure, we watched things like Alphablocks on iplayer. I can force them to watch Attenborough or Blue Peter, and they enjoy it, just not enough to want to watch them over things on disney. There's so much competition of things to do.

I do watch BBC (iplayer obviously) occasionally, but the material I'm interested in isn't as accessible as it is on disney/apple/prime/netflix/youtube.

We watched Eurovision and Euro2020 (England games) this year. Aside from that the only BBC output we watched was Roadkill about a year ago, and the one Doctor Who episode which had John Barrowman in. I would watch have I got news for you, but whenever I remember to watch it, it's not on.

This itself might not say a lot, and I still have a TV license despite the limited direct value I get (listen to a lot of BBC radio, and the news website), but what's interesting is I actually work for the BBC. If my household barely watches it, where does the future lie.

Linear TVs days are numbered, but the underlying cultural links that prime time TV provided in the 60s through 90s has already gone. 1 in 4 people in the UK used to watch the same shitty sitcoms in the 80s because there was very little choice.

It's not just BBC or the UK that has this cultural difference. "It's a wonderful life" is an American classic. It is because it was shown on every channel every christmas year after year, generation after generation, and kids watched it, because it was that or reading a book.

I think Star Trek was right with its outlandish prediction from 1988. TV as a form of entertainment won't survive much past 2040 (I think linear TV will still be going in 10 years time, but probably not 30).

> BBC World Service, which is an entirely commercial entity

This is not truthful - the World Service is funded by the rest of the BBC, not the other way around, and until recently was also funded by the FCO.

The big distinguishing factor has long been Netflix's subscriber driven business model: if they're not growing in subscribers then the company appears to be "failing" or stagnant to investors/shareholders. Netflix's original productions are for retention, but moreso for getting new subscribers to boost the subscription numbers (hence their hard push into Asia).

Netflix's problem is that it doesn't have the niche of another service using the same business model, something like HBO which makes "HBO shows" (Nudity, violence, swearing, "prestige" productions). Without a distinct house style or niche aesthetic, Netflix has adopted the firehose method. Blast as much money at as many scripts as possible with the hopes that one will turn gold.

The BBC, through the licensing fee, kind of evades that business model and the ramifications of it; the BBC can choose to not aim for "hits", but for cultural content as such. Creators are free to create cultural content without a direct profit motive and that really allows the BBC to retain some very high quality documentarians, screenwriters, producers, and directors. The licensing fee is a tax, but it is a tax that keeps the profit motive from dominating media production.