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A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

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Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#91

Post by inter_netuser »

jonny_eh wrote: post #44
criticaltinker wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccination has been shown to induce an immune response including T cells [1]. However, vaccination induces a slightly different immune response compared to natural infection [2][3] . These differences may account for variation in effectiveness between vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity. [1] Rapid induction of antigen-specific CD4+ T cells is associated with coordinated humoral and cellular immune respon…

> differences may account for variation in effectiveness between vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity. What's the variation you are referring to?

antibodies produced in a primary infection target a lot more than spike protein, in some pre-prints.

It's all preliminary data. However, the sinopharm vaccine, which is the whole virus, not just spike protein, seems to lose effectiveness after several months as well.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#92

Post by Retric »

trhway wrote: post #86
Retric wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you misunderstood what I meant. As your first graph shows the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated than the young thus age correlates with vaccination rates. However, youth is protection from serious complications or deaths. So if you look hospitalizations or deaths rather than positive tests for infections the graphs look very different. The Simpson’s paradox means your less likely to die after a COVID v…

i don't discuss the number of hospitalizations or deaths - that is currently established fact that the current vaccines decrease that (at least as the 1st order effect and leaving aside the possible 2nd order that infected vaccinated being undercounted and asymptomatic with higher chances may be walking around spreading) and there is not much point to discuss there. I discuss infection spread at which those vaccines…

Ok, that’s a different issue. We have crossed the threshold where most people are getting sick or vaccinated, with many getting both. People can test positive for infection without being particularly infectious. Just as the vaccinated are less likely to be hospitalized they are also vastly less contagious on average after infection.

That’s from two different effects the vaccinated and prior infected are both less sick and sick for a shorter periods. Which is why people talk about herd immunity. Of course the longer people go unvaccinated the more evolution is pushing COVID to become ever more infectious aka Delta as part of a long line of slightly worse variants.

But, again eventually almost everyone gets it or the vaccine so there is major pressure to get people vaccinated or just open up so the unvaccinated get sick.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#94

Post by baumy »

inter_netuser wrote: post #90
nradov wrote: post #69

How is this grim? Case numbers are mostly irrelevant now. What really matters is the death rate. Very few vaccinated people die, and the death rate for unvaccinated children is also extremely low. All of us are likely to become a "case" at some point no matter what we do. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

case numbers of course matter, because vaccines do not guarantee you will not end up with long covid, or many other consequences of a rough viral infection. Countless millions will live with a permanent disability their entire life.

> Countless millions will live with a permanent disability their entire life.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I see no reason to believe this at all. Side effects from a viral infection, and specifically coronaviruses, lasting for months or even a year or two afterward in uncommon cases are well documented. To say that "countless millions will live with a permanent disability" with regard to a virus that has only even existed in humans for ~2 years now is completely unfounded, and over dramatic.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#95

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

neonate wrote: post #82
mig39 wrote: post #11

Base Rate Fallacy on science.org ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

That page explains the fallacy poorly. Like a lot of Wikipedia articles on technical topics, it gives an explanation that only makes sense to people who already know the concept (or at least I assume it does). For the rest of us, maybe someone could provide a clearer explanation?

I think this is the same as my earlier comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28273947

Quote:

---

This number is meaningless without also knowing what percentage of the people are vaccinated. Compare:

"80% of the people in hospital have $foo, and 80% of the general population has $foo" - $foo has no bearing at all on hospitalisation.

"80% of the people in hospital have $spon, and 5% of the general population has $spon" - $spon is clearly linked to the majority of hospitalisations.

"45% of the people in hospital have $bar, and 5% of the general population has $bar" - $bar is linked to higher rates of hospitalisation, _despite_ not being the majority of hospitalisations.

Spoiler: for some age groups in the UK now, "being unvaccinated" is much like $bar.

---

I would add now:

"not $bar -" i.e. "being vaccinated" could make up "55% of the people in hospital" (or more) despite reducing the odds of it.

and "not wearing seatbelt" -> "in hospital after a car crash" is probably like the $spon case.

Those examples above of course come with the caveat "all other things being equal" which isn't the case if, e.g. that others have raised, the age breakdown of the whole population vs hospitalisation is different. That's why there are graphs of "over 50s, vaccinated vs. hospitalised" as a catogory.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#96

Post by dotancohen »

bequanna wrote: post #54
conception wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> somewhat more deadly A magnitude more deadly. Flu's death rate is ~.1%, Covid's is about 2-3%.

That is an insane, alarmist claim if I ever saw one. The death rate is absolutely not 2-3%. What percentage of the population do think has been infected?

To be fair to GP, during the first few months of the pandemic - early to mid 2020 - this was the rate that was used in all publications. Though the rate might currently be known to be lower (or higher for all I know) this is the rate that I remember.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#97

Post by helge9210 »

bequanna wrote: post #64
helge9210 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid's is about 2-3%. 0.7% in Israel. Much much less if you exclude terminal cancer, obesity and immunosuppressed transplant recipients.

Right. So, an overwhelming majority of the people who “died from COVID” would have likely passed away in the near future from something unrelated. They just were unfortunate enough to catch COVID in their already incredibly fragile and deteriorating state and end up with COVID listed as their cause of death.

> in their already incredibly fragile and deteriorating state

This state is called "dying". Dying people in ECU will develop pneumonia no matter what. If it would not be COVID, it would be their own gum bacteria.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#98

Post by helge9210 »

e40 wrote: post #66
resource0x wrote: post #47

Some updates from Israel (based on Wednesday Sept 01 data) "Some 11,246 new cases out of around 145,000 tests that were performed on Wednesday were diagnosed with the virus, the Health Ministry reported on Thursday evening, with 7.9% of those screened testing positive – the highest percentage since the start of the pandemic. Israel is in first place in the world in the number of daily cases per capita in the last sev…

Does anyone know what Israel is doing in terms of lockdowns, etc? Are they back to business as usual, or something else?

After two weeks in June mask mandate is back. Mass gatherings are limited. Certain fasciitis are available only to vaccinated.

Practically, nobody cares anymore. Compared to first lockdown, when streets were totally empty (a sight to behold), last half a year is business as usual.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#99

Post by conception »

nradov wrote: post #63
conception wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> somewhat more deadly A magnitude more deadly. Flu's death rate is ~.1%, Covid's is about 2-3%.

That is misinformation. The CDC estimates COVID-19 death rate to be 0.6%. And vaccination cuts that rate close to 0. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Vaccination is moot as a point.

And even then... ok... COVID is only FIVE times more deadly, not 10.

It's not slightly more.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#100

Post by conception »

bequanna wrote: post #54
conception wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> somewhat more deadly A magnitude more deadly. Flu's death rate is ~.1%, Covid's is about 2-3%.

That is an insane, alarmist claim if I ever saw one. The death rate is absolutely not 2-3%. What percentage of the population do think has been infected?

Of cases reported, 2% have died. If you want to go with CDC estimates, it's about .6%, still 5X the flu. If you include all excess death's it's about .7-8%.

Pick your number but COVID The Flu.

I can't believe almost a million people have died and people still shrug it off as just the flu.

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