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A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

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Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#81

Post by jonnycomputer »

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #52
jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

I think the science always knew this, but they mislead the population because being vaccinated is still better than not. The whole vaccination thing is a white lie. We have never eradicated the flu, it mutates too fast. Same is true with Covid-19. The medical establishment has always known this, yet they spread propaganda because, again, being vaccinated is safer. The numbers about 99% effective were a lie, they knew…

When we make accusations like this, its becoming to actually point to specific examples where specific individuals or organizations have done this. For example, this doesn't accord with my recollection, by my recollection is skewed in various ways.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#82

Post by neonate »

mig39 wrote: post #11

Base Rate Fallacy on science.org ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

That page explains the fallacy poorly. Like a lot of Wikipedia articles on technical topics, it gives an explanation that only makes sense to people who already know the concept (or at least I assume it does). For the rest of us, maybe someone could provide a clearer explanation?

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#83

Post by dlevine »

The important thing is that the vaccines are having a large effect on Covid-related deaths. Despite the current number of reported cases in Israel being equal to (or even a bit over) the January peak, the number of deaths is much lower.

According to Google's numbers, their current 7-day average number of deaths is 23, while in January they had a 7-day average of about 65. And it looks like the deaths peaked in the past week.

https://www.google.com/search?q=israel+covid+cases&rlz=1C1CH...

For reference, the numbers in Florida (where vaccination rates are significantly lower) look a lot different. You have many more cases and more deaths than the January peak.

https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+covid+cases&rlz=1C1C...

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#84

Post by arminiusreturns »

> What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,”

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#85

Post by Retric »

trhway wrote: post #51
Retric wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccination is heavily correlated with age and age is heavily correlated with risk. So, you really need to do a more complex breakdown to understand what’s going on. Aka if 90% of the 80+ year old population is vaccinated and 0% of the under 12 year old population is vaccinated then being unvaccinated starts to look like a good option. Except what you really want is to be young.

>Vaccination is heavily correlated with age not really https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/IL%2004.jpg Except for teenagers as it was pointed out, though i usually didn't consider them because of being outliers wrt. history of vaccination. Well, lets consider them too. That is new cases by age http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/25295.jpeg Let's look at opposites: 60-69 - 90% vaccination, 8%…

I think you misunderstood what I meant. As your first graph shows the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated than the young thus age correlates with vaccination rates.

However, youth is protection from serious complications or deaths. So if you look hospitalizations or deaths rather than positive tests for infections the graphs look very different. The Simpson’s paradox means your less likely to die after a COVID vaccination, but it’s easy to slice the data to make it look otherwise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#86

Post by trhway »

Retric wrote: post #85
trhway wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Vaccination is heavily correlated with age not really https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/IL%2004.jpg Except for teenagers as it was pointed out, though i usually didn't consider them because of being outliers wrt. history of vaccination. Well, lets consider them too. That is new cases by age http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/25295.jpeg Let's look at opposites: 60-69 - 90% vaccination, 8%…

I think you misunderstood what I meant. As your first graph shows the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated than the young thus age correlates with vaccination rates. However, youth is protection from serious complications or deaths. So if you look hospitalizations or deaths rather than positive tests for infections the graphs look very different. The Simpson’s paradox means your less likely to die after a COVID v…

i don't discuss the number of hospitalizations or deaths - that is currently established fact that the current vaccines decrease that (at least as the 1st order effect and leaving aside the possible 2nd order that infected vaccinated being undercounted and asymptomatic with higher chances may be walking around spreading) and there is not much point to discuss there. I discuss infection spread at which those vaccines fail, and thus various vaccine mandates policies and societal push for it are completely unfounded and based in hysteria and ideology.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#87

Post by [deleted] »

trhway wrote: post #86
Retric wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you misunderstood what I meant. As your first graph shows the elderly are more likely to be vaccinated than the young thus age correlates with vaccination rates. However, youth is protection from serious complications or deaths. So if you look hospitalizations or deaths rather than positive tests for infections the graphs look very different. The Simpson’s paradox means your less likely to die after a COVID v…

i don't discuss the number of hospitalizations or deaths - that is currently established fact that the current vaccines decrease that (at least as the 1st order effect and leaving aside the possible 2nd order that infected vaccinated being undercounted and asymptomatic with higher chances may be walking around spreading) and there is not much point to discuss there. I discuss infection spread at which those vaccines…

[deleted]

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#88

Post by nradov »

dlevine wrote: post #83

The important thing is that the vaccines are having a large effect on Covid-related deaths. Despite the current number of reported cases in Israel being equal to (or even a bit over) the January peak, the number of deaths is much lower. According to Google's numbers, their current 7-day average number of deaths is 23, while in January they had a 7-day average of about 65. And it looks like the deaths peaked in the pa…

Vaccines are very effective at reducing the death rate but when making comparisons between countries or states we also have to adjust for population demographics. Florida has a median age of 42 whereas in Israel it's only 30. And more importantly Florida has 21% of the population over age 65 whereas in Israel it's only 12%. We know that age is a huge risk factor.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#89

Post by inter_netuser »

jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

indeed, strange article.

It is however quite possible at this point, that the effectiveness against symptomatic infection wears off to nearly zero after 5-6 months.

This seems to be the cause with both mRNA and sinopharm's inactivated virus vaccine as well.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#90

Post by inter_netuser »

nradov wrote: post #69

How is this grim? Case numbers are mostly irrelevant now. What really matters is the death rate. Very few vaccinated people die, and the death rate for unvaccinated children is also extremely low. All of us are likely to become a "case" at some point no matter what we do. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

case numbers of course matter, because vaccines do not guarantee you will not end up with long covid, or many other consequences of a rough viral infection.

Countless millions will live with a permanent disability their entire life.

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