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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#631

Post by dirtyid »

wazoox wrote: post #617
NonEUCitizen wrote: post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In California, we celebrate workers' rights to move between companies, and have made non-compete clauses unenforceable.

That's not what I'm talking about. Notice that Airbus started assembling A320 planes in China (under Chinese pressure), then Comac was founded, most of Chinese people working at Airbus went to Comac 1000 km away to build an A320 clone. This isn't simply a case of people "freely switching jobs". Particularly not in light of blatant and repeated Chinese espionage of incredible breadth in France going on for years and y…

>most of Chinese people working at Airbus went to Comac 1000 km away to build an A320 clone. This isn't simply a case of people "freely switching jobs".

State directed espionage doesn't get hundreds/thousands of engineers to switch allegiances. Money does. Then the knowledge travels with them. Personal knowledge that Airbus like many Euro companies in China treated their local employees like shit.

Another example was ZTE/Huawei managed to poach Nortel and other Euro telcom empoyees in China was because mainland employees had very little advancement opportunities. This included foreign nationals like Canadians with PRC Chinese background. An aquaintence of Chinese Canadian background poached most of Nortel GuangZhou's engineering team because state companies simply compensated better and provided more opportunities. A few years later, he poached a bunch of engineers from state company back to a foreign one who promoted. That's the incentives driving these mass migrations. Many PRC talent would rather stay working with foreign multinations due to prestige and better conditions (nice offices etc), especially in the late 90s, but at the end of the day, there was a bamboo ceiling and they generally weren't respected. Of course state will continue to espionage, but don't estimate role of Western companies being racist biting self in the ass that drove mainland talent to work for domestic companies.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#632

Post by archibaldJ »

strogonoff wrote: post #180
archibaldJ wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Authoritarianism always comes with a top-down execution structure, which optimises for cost-to-execute but not cost-to-transform. When the need-to-transform exceeds a certain value, it would either have to re-adjust its internal structure or it will crumble (as the cost skyrockets) [1]. Interest…

Your point about cost-to-adjust resonated with me. What I’ve found is that designing for software successfully existing over time implies giving up control and instead going up to a meta-level, enabling sound methods of development to evolve—as opposed to defining specific processes, architecture and implementation, which in longer term leads to a situation in which whenever lead developer has not enough time (or is…

> giving up control and instead going up to a meta-level, enabling sound methods of development to evolve - as opposed to defining specific processes, architecture and implementation...

Intriguing! Sounds like we'll end up with something hugely team-players-dependent. Also removing lead dev dependency is an interesting take. (I had at most worked with 2 devs in a project so this is definitely something to keep in mind when the team scales up.)

> I’ve read that the one-child policy in China was not strictly enforced outside of major cities, and resulted in many children born in the countryside essentially “outside of the system”, not having access to education or healthcare

Maybe not that many. But definitely not a phenomenon unfamiliar to the city dwellers (esp when there had been a huge rural-to-urban migration from 2005~2018)

At one point they did (unofficially, I think) relax access to education and healthcare. Ultimately every actor in the societal chains of command would try to milk out from the perpetrators as much as possible (in the form of bribes/fines), until eventually very little can be milked and then things became cheaper (or close-to-free).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#633

Post by star-trek-fleet »

barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

No, certain industry used to require that like financial industry.

Of course, the state controlled joint venture gives more benefit on the table, like any business deals.

Use your brain...

US capitalists are the best and smartest. You think they are willing to subject to such draconic rullings?!

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#634

Post by jollybean »

makeitdouble wrote: post #502
jollybean wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not going to interfere in 'Swede Corp' unless it's a serious issue of state security. Spottily could be worth $500B and they would not care. Recently Erickson took the spotlight as one of the few alternatives to 5G Huawei there was talk of US sate intervention but that might have been a good thing for them, otherwise, if they came to totally dominate 5G gear sales, again, the US wouldn't really have cared.…

Interestingly Spotify is playing relatively nice with the US in general, e.g: https://themusicnetwork.com/spotify-expands-us-operations-ad... They also rely on GCP, and have a strong dependance on Apple and Google’s gardens, so their growing success is also tied to US firms. Nokia is also in very good terms with the US gov: https://www.nokia.com/networks/us-federal-defense/

Spotify has barely any material relationship with the US Gov. and that they are closer to Apple and Google is normal.

Nokia might have some relationship with US gov. but that's also normal.

US Gov. will not interfere in most cases with things.

With energy security i.e. Petrodollar, yes, but usually it requires a 'problem' to surface i.e. chip shortage for them to take action.

The US benefits from 'open trade' - being the biggest economy i the world and fairly open, it usually means 'they win' so they're fine with it, they don't have to be protectionist or nationalist. 'Open' is a winning strategy for them in a way that it's not for say, Sweden or Columbia, which may have to have more selective national strategies.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#636

Post by justicezyx »

droopyEyelids wrote: post #269
barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

Maglev trains, and also with McDonnell Douglas/Boeing and airframes. https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/how-bill-clinton-and-amer...

""" American officials want to avoid sending any signals that would fuel China's belief that the United States is trying to ''contain'' China's power, militarily or economically. And they know that if they deny a range of industrial technology to China, other competitors -- chiefly France and Germany -- are ready to leap in and fill the void. """

I am not sure the clickbating sensentional title really can be substantiated by the content...

Except from the fact that China practiced a different political system and ideology, developing China is not morally worse or better than developing any other nations.

Of course, when China grows powerful, they'll become more aggressive, and may even become the next super bully.

Buy is that particularly exceptional in history?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#637

Post by justicezyx »

rossdavidh wrote: post #17

So, I cannot see this sort of thing stopping, until we see a point where non-Chinese investors revolt when they hear about the company they've invested going into China, rather than cheering. If investors have had such a change of heart at this point, I have not seen it.

This type of thing happened rarely...

This is a rogue CEO who is exploiting a particular legality niche to fight his own board. And had committed misconduct before.

This is a extradinary situation. Not something you see often.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#638

Post by justicezyx »

thepasswordis wrote: post #396

It really feels like the rest of the world refuses to even try and prevent China from taking over everything.

The firm's 49% shares belong to arm holding. Where are the "taking over everything". And literally the CEO and Softbank own the majority shares, are American and Japanese... What are the China taking everything in this non Chinese entity?...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#640

Post by redwood »

justicezyx wrote: post #637
rossdavidh wrote: post #17

So, I cannot see this sort of thing stopping, until we see a point where non-Chinese investors revolt when they hear about the company they've invested going into China, rather than cheering. If investors have had such a change of heart at this point, I have not seen it.

This type of thing happened rarely... This is a rogue CEO who is exploiting a particular legality niche to fight his own board. And had committed misconduct before. This is a extradinary situation. Not something you see often.

You kidding? This is par for the course.. this is the macro playbook that we've seen time and time again over the last 20 years
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