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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#501

Post by entropicgravity »

AussieWog93 wrote: post #437
MichaelGroves wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one talks about it? China inventing paper, printing and gunpowder is something every school child knows. I think I've heard about it about a million times. These facts are common knowledge; certainly paper and gunpowder. Printing is an odd example; the reason Gutenberg was influential is not the reason most people think. He did not invent movable type. He invented systems for mass producing movable type, particula…

>China inventing paper, printing and gunpowder is something every school child knows. Just anecdata, but prior to reading your comment I thought the Egyptians invented paper (papyrus) and Gutenberg invented printing.

It's "the four great inventions" the fourth is the compass. Sure, but what have they done for us in last few millenias? :)

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#502

Post by makeitdouble »

jollybean wrote: post #447
makeitdouble wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A point on addressing China as market: for a non US company, I think there just isn’t any market that will be much easier to compete in either way. If we imagine a Swedish chip maker that wants to become a global powerhouse, the US will dip a finger or two in it to make sure it mostly goes along their interests, otherwise the maker will just get banned from US use (Huawey…). China will do the same if the chips ever t…

The US is not going to interfere in 'Swede Corp' unless it's a serious issue of state security. Spottily could be worth $500B and they would not care. Recently Erickson took the spotlight as one of the few alternatives to 5G Huawei there was talk of US sate intervention but that might have been a good thing for them, otherwise, if they came to totally dominate 5G gear sales, again, the US wouldn't really have cared.…

Interestingly Spotify is playing relatively nice with the US in general, e.g: https://themusicnetwork.com/spotify-expands-us-operations-ad...

They also rely on GCP, and have a strong dependance on Apple and Google’s gardens, so their growing success is also tied to US firms.

Nokia is also in very good terms with the US gov: https://www.nokia.com/networks/us-federal-defense/

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#503

Post by sudosysgen »

ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #476
sudosysgen wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one and everyone is responsible. Capital has its hands tied and must pursue higher profits. The ones responsible aren't just the ones that signed the paper but the ones that made and perpetuated the system that made that decision necessary.

They're called tariffs, they've been around for centuries, for exactly this purpose. Tariffs should have been raised ages ago on Chinese imports. And if not tariffs, sanctions have been put out against countries for way less.

That's the thing. Tariffs hurt capital. And in our system, by design, it's those with property that have undue influence.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#504

Post by coldtea »

cscurmudgeon wrote: post #356
coldtea wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Why shouldn't they? It's their market. Do you propose we do like the British, which bomb them and opened it by force to have them buy opium? For perspecive, and to answer the "seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else", part, the US has historically had tons of tarrifs on its own, it's how it got big - they only switched to "free trade" when…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_ra... China has twice the tariff rate of the US, *in addition* to directly stopping foreign companies.

Yes, because China is not in the development stage the US is now, but where it was decades ago and with huge setbacks from the 19th century and Mao era.

The finger pointing to that is a "I kicked the ladder after I've climbed" thing (or "do as I do now that I'm on top, don't do what I did to get on top, I don't want competition up here" kind of advice).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#505

Post by nootropicat »

omegaworks wrote: post #210
nootropicat wrote: post #173

Diversity happened. Civic nationalism empirically doesn't work [1]. Societies need some level of individual sacrifice for the group to prosper over the long term, and diversity kills the impulse to do that. Favoring the ingroup over the outgroup is a stable state for groups, starting from ants and ending with humans. Trying to eradicate those impulses was perhaps noble, but ended in utter failure. Hapless attempts at…

"The West" is absolutely reliant on the people that emigrate to it from elsewhere for its success. There is empirical evidence that startups that incorporate H1B workers see their measures of "financial performance, likelihood of going public, and quantity and quality of innovation" increase significantly[1], the paper detailing as such trended on HN not one week ago[2]. Efforts to stymie diversity and decrease immig…

You wrote that under the article that shows the long-term consequences of short-term profits you mentioned.

"Prior to joining Arm, Wu was the founder of AccelerateMobile in Silicon Valley, and held management, marketing, sales, and engineering positions at Mentor Graphics, LSI Logic, and Intel."

He definitely increased economic growth for a while, a very competent man. Now he captured a part of Arm for China and his experience (presumably) allows him to competently manage it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not criticizing him. He deserves praise - a patriot exploiting stupidity of foreigners for the benefit of his people.

China is never going to repeat these strategic blunders, which is what virtually guarantees a Chinese century - once they're top dog in something, good luck trying to learn anything near state of the art if you aren't Chinese. They have enough people for a complete blanket ban of foreigners for any position even near advanced knowledge or executive control.

Ironically, you shit on Elon Musk, yet SpaceX is the only entity that has the potential to prevent a total Chinese domination of yet another sector - space. It's somewhat protected by ITAR so there's a real chance.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#506

Post by throwaway34241 »

notabanker wrote: post #344
nabla9 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ray Dalio is fucked. Bridgewater has been expanding and expanding their Chinese assets. Dalio moved his Home Office to Singapore to really manage the assets from diversifying between America and China. He is still defending his position. (He can't talk negatively about Cina anyways) 'Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said investors are misconstruing China's regulatory clampdown on tech companies as "anti-capitalist."' h…

Does that mean Ray Dalio is pessimistic about US prospects and thinks China will dominate the future? But how does one invest in China without worrying about their capricious, personality-centered policies?

He's written (a lot) about his views on the future of the US and China here [1]. In general, he views them as the rising world power and the US being in (at least relative) decline. He seems about as well informed as anyone, apparently he's been involved there for 36 years and has personal relationships with high-level officials (I believe he even sent his kid to live and go to school there for a while). He also has a section on cultural differences - he expects them to continue to develop but doesn't expect them to become like the US.

As for how other people should invest there, I have no idea.

[1] https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#507

Post by HPsquared »

kreelman wrote: post #499
HPsquared wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Going rouge" as in red? Seems appropriate...

I'm guessing "rouge" should be "rogue"? Somewhere in this conversation I think someone made a typo and it's gained its own life in the comments, thinking it's the correct term? However, in this case Softbank must be "rouge" (embarrassed) for their mistake... So perhaps it's kind of okay :)

Red as in the colour of Communism (in name at least)... "Going red" meaning to defect to their side. Less rogue, more rouge.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#508

Post by kreelman »

rsj_hn wrote: post #49
comrade-hn wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the most competitive products in some categories are from China, for example in drones. It's only a matter of time until they work their way up the chain. Remember the Tim Cook quote how it's difficult to fill a room with machinists in US, while in China you can fill 3 football fields with them.

That is confusing cause and effect. Because companies move their manufacturing operations to china it becomes harder to manufacture in the US. They did not initially move to China because of a lack of dometic skilled workers, but because of lower costs. The result of that move was, after a delay, the de-skilling of the US labor force, creating the lack of domestic skilled workers we have now. To recover from that wou…

"Skills follow activity, they do not lead activity. You learn by doing."

Nicely put. Thanks for pointing that out. That really resonates for me as I think about my career and skillset. I'm where I am now because of building things with somewhat inferior skills (risky) at the start and growing my skills . I need to repeat that with new tools/processes now. It all seems obvious looking back.

...Perhaps another skill is having the foresight to see what will be needed in the next phase. I did it then, hopefully I'll be able to do it again. A bit like running a small company of one person. Where is the next investment made?

China - the populace - seem to be pretty good at this.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#509

Post by nguyenkien »

ithkuil wrote: post #291
prewett wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days it's a round plastic handle with a carved rubber bottom that pairs with a spongy red-ink filled bottom. There's a picture and an explanation at [1]. It basically functions the same way as the signature of an authorized representative of the company does in the West. Presumably it comes out of personal seals which are a fun item to get if you're in China. I never interacted with someone who used them, but i…

In Japan seals/stamps (hanko) are still widely used as signatures.

Japan, Korea, Vietnam, China all using seal/stamp

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#510

Post by PostThisTooFast »

thesausageking wrote: post #400
fnord77 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so, the Tesla subsidiary in china is 51% chinese owned?

Yes. All companies that operate in China have to be 51% domestically owned. Often they're setup so the parent company keeps all of the IP but as the Arm situation shows, that only gives the parent so much power.

I thought they recently abolished this bullshit.

China has been making a joke out of foreign entities for years with this blatant rip-off.

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