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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

181–190 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#181
post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

so, the Tesla subsidiary in china is 51% chinese owned?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#182

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

>Sucked ass if you were a minority This is just propaganda from minority groups. For the vast majority of non-immigrant minorities, life has been reliably excellent.

Do you have evidence of this claim? Thank you!

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#183
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's changed? Colonialism ended. The west was not light years ahead of, say, India, when it was first colonized. In the process of colonizing it, India's industrialization was stopped. Countries didn't somehow fall into 'developed' and 'undeveloped' buckets by divine fiat. The latter tended to be invaded by the former, with the occupiers focusing more on wealth extraction, than development. Once that parasitic re…

I'm not sure if we can attribute the gap solely to colonialism. Chinese rulers back in 1890s thought the products of industrialization were simply exotic crap. They despised STEM and didn't have a single school teaching STEM (there were a few such schools due to the Western Affairs Movement, but they were not created by the government). I don't think this level of barbarian culture was caused by colonialism.

You can't speculate as to China's outcome in the 21st century, based on what its rulers may have thought in the 19th century, on an alt-historical timeline that skipped the opium wars, and the century of occupation, civil war, war, and some more civil war.

I mean, you can, but your speculation is as good as anyone else's.

In the late 19th century, Russia still had serfs, and Americans practiced chattel slavery. By the mid 20th century, both of those countries built the atomic bomb. A century is a very long time to make accurate alt-historic predictions about.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#184
post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

China hasn't made any power plays beyond currency manipulation. Greedy US/European CEOs handed the PRC the keys to the castle for short-term gains.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#185
post #147

This article repeats “安谋科技” so many times but as far as I can tell, doesn’t mention even once how I might attempt to pronounce it or recognize when anyone else mentions it in the future. Can anyone at least provide a transliteration?

"ānmóu kējì"

https://www.mdbg.net/chinese/dictionary?page=worddict&wdrst=...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#186
post #57
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is confusing cause and effect. Because companies move their manufacturing operations to china it becomes harder to manufacture in the US. They did not initially move to China because of a lack of dometic skilled workers, but because of lower costs. The result of that move was, after a delay, the de-skilling of the US labor force, creating the lack of domestic skilled workers we have now. To recover from that wou…

It's not just a lack of domestic skilled workers. I'm not really sure there is much of a lack. It's just that US labor is so much more expensive compared to earning power. US workers can't pay other US workers. Getting parts CNCed in China may be 10x less than the cost in the US, and materials are a tenth the cost as well (in small qty) as they haven't been transported yet. You can get roughly the same throughput in…

> US workers can't pay other US workers.

That is just logically false. It's not even a question of measurement, it is false by definition. The income paid to produce is by definition always sufficient to purchase the output that has been produced. But remember that income paid to the factors of production includes both labor and capital income, because both the owners of capital and the suppliers of labor purchase the products that are created by the combining of labor and capital to produce output.

What is unsustainable is running persistent trade deficits overseas. E.g. by allowing foreign capital inflows, we have allowed the foreign sector to distort prices in an unsustainable manner.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#187
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IANAL but I would assume they would infringe many Arm patents if sold outside of China.

Author here. They specifically said they are not working with foreign companies. While they have exclusive rights to arm architecture in china, they cannot do anything outside china.

[deleted]

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

Things will get really ugly once you codify special classes citizens and other US persons. It won't happen even though conservative congresspeople have been pushing for it for decades.

Well you have security clearances already no?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#189

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

It went sideways when the CCP/PRC realized that they could just sell off their citizens to U.S. corporations as cheap slave labor. My speculation is that they also figured out an effective system for blackmailing the executives of those companies and U.S. politicians into doing whatever they want (e.g. Christine Fang).

The subsequent ideological compromise of the West is the result of the CCP getting its tendrils into Western leadership (https://nypost.com/2020/12/13/us-companies-riddled-with-memb...) and culture. This video of John Cena apologizing for recogizing Taiwan as a country in Mandrin should have been a deeply frightening wake up call: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zre2p7mg64g&ab_channel=China....

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#190

The PRC isn’t fucking around. They’re playing for the whole show and the West is bringing a significantly weaker game than it did against a significantly dumber geopolitical adversary last time. Being England or whatever isn’t the end of the world, there is life after global hegemony, but e.g. the USA should be realistic about the fact that e.g. shit like a legislature whose job is to get nothing done isn’t how you w…

The West and Americans (in my experience) take for granted that civil rights, free speech, democracy, and other values automatically create better outcomes than authoritarianism. This is how it was taught to me, and it seems baked into the culture.

Unfortunately, the reality is that while (in my opinion) liberal values create better outcomes, it takes care and concerted effort to get the benefits. A democracy isn't automatically better than an authoritarian regime; that assumes that the democracy is effective and that the authoritarians are not.

The CCP is clearly effective. They are able to nail jello to the wall and have it stick. The US Congress is clearly not effective. Chinese people got to go to movie theaters and eat at restaurants and dance at raves for most of 2020 and 2021; I, as an American, could not. The CCP delivered for their people in a way that the US did not.

The United States is not particularly effective at national security (2021-01-06), foreign engagements (Afghanistan and Iraq, last 20 years), or social mobility (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_mobility_in_the_...). The media ecosystem is a mess (due to purposeful de-regulation), voting rates are abysmal, education is poor by rich world standards. Democracy doesn't work well when the populace is not sufficiently educated, accurately informed, and empowered by a political system (see the Senate's strong R electoral advantage). We keep choosing leadership who lose at the polls because we haven't invested in modernizing our democracy.

The US and other Western states need to step up and put in the work to prove that their values can deliver for their people better than the authoritarians can.

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