Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

thinkcivics.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 159 posts

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#71

Post by aqme28 »

H8crilA wrote: post #61
_Microft wrote: post #2

That's good news for people who have already recovered from Covid. We should definitely take that into account for policies around opening up again, i.e. by treating recovered people like vaccinated people. Beside that it is of little use, is it? "Get Covid to be better protected from Covid" doesn't make a lot of sense to me, at least.

Wait, which country isn't treating the recovered like the vaccinated? I thought it's standard, at least in Europe.

I know for my flight from the US to Europe, I need proof of vaccination. Proof "of immunity" is not sufficient.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#73

Post by [deleted] »

bigcorp-slave wrote: post #23

Non-peer reviewed study being flogged by the right wing to push an anti-vaccine agenda, upvoted on Hacker News. How is today unlike any other day? Yawn. Worse, the guy who’s posting this has been spreading COVID misinformation on this site for literally years.

[deleted]

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#74

Post by criticaltinker »

dredmorbius wrote: post #18

Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…

Yes although the delta variant has undermined the efficacy of vaccines at preventing infection (from 91% to 66% [1]), it is still fairly effective at preventing severe outcomes such as hospitalization and death.

> but a poor basis on which to shift policy from vaccination to infecting the entire population and blessing the survivors

This is not at all what the paper is suggesting, and people should not be interpreting it as such. The fact is that a vast majority of people infected by SARS-CoV-2 will survive without any severe outcomes. In fact a significant proportion (at least 33% and up to 65% [2][3], perhaps even more [4][5]) will be completely asymptomatic.

This has implications for vaccine strategy because supply of doses is limited - these findings imply that individuals who are immunologically naive or vulnerable due to age and comorbidities should be prioritized for vaccination, rather than people who have already acquired robust and durable immunity from natural infection [6].

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm

[2] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976

[3] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

[4] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372...

[5] Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/13/601/eabh3826

[6] Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/371/6532/916.full...

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#75

Post by JumpCrisscross »

muttantt wrote: post #50
bluedevil2k wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don’t have any long term data on Covid infection either. Why risk children’s lives?

Because the vaccine is a risk factor on its own as well. Do you not agree with that?

> vaccine is a risk factor on its own as well

We have evidence, in adults, of long-term effects from Covid. These effects aren't benign, either, e.g. permanent damage to the brain's grey matter. We have zero evidence of long-term side effects from the vaccine.

Ceteris paribus, infection is riskier than vaccines to adults. (I can think of zero diseases for which the vaccines are fine for adults and harmful to children and whose infections are harmful for adults and fine for children.)

This study is compelling evidence for creating an analog to the vaccine passport for the provably previously infected. It is not good evidence for intentional infection.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#76

Post by pplante »

dataflow wrote: post #28

Important note: this is for the delta variant . Vaccines appear to be less effective* against delta in general, and previous comparisons (like those that said vaccines are more effective [1]) were regarding earlier variants. I have yet to see anything that confirms that the conclusions of the study would be similar for other variants. (If you have any links supporting that, please do share.) [1] https://www.cdc.gov/m…

Less effective at preventing infection, no less effective in preventing death or hospitalizations. We need to get everyone vaccinated to avoid the crush on our healthcare systems. Hospitals are facing bed shortages because many have given up on basic precautions in the USA.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#77

Post by bserge »

sergiotapia wrote: post #52

If you're young and not fat, why would you get the vaccine? Just lose weight and exercise. If you're a child, why would your parents want you to get vaccinated if there's no risk at all? I hope these studies are conclusive once and for all.

I agree if you sign a waiver saying you get no healthcare in the rare case that your infection requires hospitalization.

That's my stance on prescription medication, too, in case you think I'm just being an asshole about CV. I'd sign a waiver for the freedom to buy antidepressants.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#78

Post by Gibbon1 »

dataflow wrote: post #66
hurlathroway wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like that might be our endgame now. If covid becomes endemic, which may be inevitable, then the only question is whether you want your body to be prepared for its first infection or not. I wonder if this could end up like the 'common cold' coronaviruses, where future generations build up immunity through exposure very early in life, resulting in mild infections in adulthood. That would beg an interesting qu…

> 'common cold' coronaviruses I think you mean rhinoviruses?

There are four endemic coronaviruses that infect humans. One of them uses the same receptor ACE2 to infect cells. That one is getting a harder look.

There is also SARS which is extinct. And MERS which is producing sporadic outbreaks.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#79

Post by yehosef »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #53

I want to ask about source material for a minute. What is ThinkCivics? Why is it reasonable second-hand source for analysis of a non-peer reviewed article? Does it have editorial biases? I am asking sincerely. It is a new site to me, and I don't know if it is a trustworthy source of information. The site is also unresponsive at the time I'm writing this.

Anything that questions the value of vaccines should be suspected as misinformation, regardless of the source.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#80

Post by mlyle »

nradov wrote: post #32
throwawaycities wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “problem” is that vaccinated people with the virus but experiencing no symptoms is that they still spread it to both unvaccinated and vaccinated alike. While many might not feel sympathy for the unvaccinated, a small % can’t get the vaccination, and there will still be that % of vaccinated people that do have a bad health outcome.

At this point the Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect unvaccinated individuals. They're going to get exposed and infected eventually no matter what we do. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

Maybe. I quibble with "no significant herd immunity."

I'm in an area with a very high vaccination rate (>87% of those over age 12 having had at least one dose, >80% fully vaccinated). Our case counts are a fraction of the rest of the country. The country's rates would be expected to be 3x lower if we could simply extrapolate my locale's rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated people to those fractions of the population in the rest of the country. This seems to hold up in other high-vaccination regions, though obviously there are confounds.

The phase delay and greatly decreased count even makes me speculate that my locale (which is still using some mitigations) may be operating in a regime of Rt Maybe this isn't true. But we seem, at the least, to be experiencing some benefit beyond the direct benefits for vaccinated individuals.

Post reply on HN