Arm China Has Gone Rogue • Hacker News Board

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#461

Post by AussieWog93 » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:26 AM UTC

refenestrator wrote: post #382

Phileosopher wrote: post #287

This is difficult to parse in my Western mind. I've grown up with a constant understanding of implicit liberties, so much so that I have the freedom to openly _discuss_ my general distrust of the government. The events that float by in HN are outliers: threats of more risk, but statistically unusual enough that they're stories of interest. This means that living and acting in a country where your very _thoughts_ are…

Remember that nobody was threatened or, as a result, morally offended by China until the last few years when we figured out we couldn't keep them at the bottom of the value chain forever. How do we live in a society where we can just be aimed at a new foreign enemy and all of our free, enlightened citizens go along every time? Russia (support afghanistan), Iran (support Iraq), Iraq (support gulf emirates), Al Qaeda,…

Maybe I'm biased somewhat as Australia has a history of being threatened by an aggressor taking over the Pacific in the past, but I don't think the situation with Xi Jinping is as simple as "national rivalry" or "a new foreign enemy".

Xi is reinstating policies that have not existed in China since the days of Mao: lifelong leadership terms, extreme cults of personality, a fostered sense of nationalistic violence, the beginnings of territorial expansion and mass incarceration and repression of an entire ethnic group.

There are very real fears that he could become the next Hitler and violently subjugate the entire Asia-Pacific region to his rule.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#462

Post by landryraccoon » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:26 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #94

landryraccoon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

If your system can’t win because it’s inherently better, then maybe your system shouldn’t win? Have a little faith. Our system shouldn’t win just because we are using it. After all, our core beliefs are that it is a better system, not just through our pure force of will. The OP is right, much of China is is still undeveloped and their policies short-sighted and naive. In fact the whole government is so sensitive to f…

I'm curious where you fix the goalposts.

The GDP of the Soviet Union never exceeded that of the United States at any point.

If the GDP of China exceeds the United States in the near future (which seems quite possible), how does that fact reconcile with your analysis?

I find the government of China to be morally reprehensible. However there are plenty of cases in history in the real world where that which is morally reprehensible prevails, at least in the short term.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#463

Post by Izkata » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:26 AM UTC

edderly wrote: post #424

justicezyx wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What security risk? This Mr. Wu did something bad inside China, without any evidence that he was colluding with the national and local government of China. How is that translate to security risk at US domestic? And all these Chinese stem students already contributed critical work to the boom of high tech industry. You are not appreciting their hard work, and link a speculation to national security risk?! How heartles…

I have no strong opinions on this, but for background, there are a bunch of Silicon Valley types like Eric Weinstein (Thiel Capital) who maintain that there are sinister undertones to the growing influence of Chinese immigrants in Tech and Higher Education. https://djonesvi.medium.com/eric-weinstein-on-the-secretly-c... Obviously that can veer into uncomfortable conclusions i.e. is it true, or is this kind of racist?

> i.e. is it true, or is this kind of racist?

You say that as if it couldn't be both...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#464

Post by spfzero » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:27 AM UTC

nerdponx wrote: post #402

thepasswordis wrote: post #396

It really feels like the rest of the world refuses to even try and prevent China from taking over everything.

It's the long game. The value of being an ally of China outweighs the costs of these individual situations.

Who would expect to remain an "ally" in China's eyes after their usefulness was exhausted? That's beyond wishful thinking. It is ascribing a magical western "loyalty" value that simply doesn't exist in business anywhere, even in the west.

Chinese companies no doubt believe they can do everything a western company can do, and they're right, for practical purposes. What do they need help with once they have the trade secret designs, processes, etc.?

I cannot believe these western "partners" believe in a long game where they come out being anything other than a chump.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#465

Post by jollybean » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:27 AM UTC

simonblack wrote: post #355

exporectomy wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect China doesn't really need western markets in the long term so denying access isn't all that powerful. Their population is the same as the entire OECD combined. They could become an entire "western developed economy" isolated within themselves plus a bunch of 3rd world allies.

I suspect China doesn't really need western markets in the long term Being from the West, we see things with West-Centric eyes. When, if we look more closely, we see that China alone has more customers than the whole of the West (Five-Eyes, Europe, Japan) combined . The West is pretty much unimportant, relatively speaking, in the over-all scheme of things. A mere 20% of the world's customers. As a whole, the world is…

The West + Japan + S. Korea, is where almost all the money, power and GDP is. China has roughly the same as the US, but with many more people. The 'Rest of Asia Minus Japan+Korea' is big, but still poor.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#466

Post by sfifs » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:27 AM UTC

thepasswordis wrote: post #396

It really feels like the rest of the world refuses to even try and prevent China from taking over everything.

Why would/should they? The short to medium term economic interests of most of the ruling/capital owning class (higher margins on production, real estate prices going up) and the plebs (cheaper products) are both tied to close cooperation. Maybe the long term interests are misaligned but in the prevailing Western capitalist system that has "won", long term costs and incentives are not really imposed on anyone - especially the capital owners/ruling class.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#467

Post by markus_zhang » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:28 AM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #459

markus_zhang wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that it's true when you point the finger to US companies. US companies are extensions of the US elites (while the state is just a tool). Actually US elites have way more power over foreign companies than Chinese elites do. I really don't think it's gonna make any real difference if we are facing (strong state + weaker corporations) or (strong corporations + weaker state).

> US companies are extensions of the US elites (while the state is just a tool) Incorrect. In the US, the state, the courts, corporations, elites, and everyone else all have competing and overlapping interests, and out of that democracy comes the sausage. In China, the system is specifically rigged so that the state always trumps everyone else, when it decides it needs to.

In China you also have elites and governments competing with each other.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#468

Post by landryraccoon » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:28 AM UTC

audunw wrote: post #205

landryraccoon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

> What evidence is there that China can't win? There's no evidence here. We're talking about predicting the future in a system that's too complex to make predictions with any certainty. But for those of us following the politics and economics of China closely, it's pretty clear that they're screwed. People said Japan would dominate the world. Then the demographic shift hit them and the economy has been stagnating eve…

If the GDP of China exceeds that of the United States and keeps a higher level for more than a few years, what would that mean for your thesis? Are you predicting that cannot happen, and therefore your thesis is falsified if it does?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#469

Post by jollybean » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:28 AM UTC

ridiculous_leke wrote: post #252

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> The Chinese government will ensure that no Western competitor will "win" in China. Period. I understand why to a point. My main issue is with the West being completely oblivious to it. > If China wants to impose such restrictions on Western companies, they shouldn't get access to Western markets. And that's it. And there are people around who give this a pass. And usually the defense is "China is just following Chi…

It's fine if China and Chinese want it this way. It just means that our posture with them should be adjusted, i.e. extracting a price for IP theft etc.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#470

Post by pfraze » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 12:29 AM UTC

refenestrator wrote: post #382

Phileosopher wrote: post #287

This is difficult to parse in my Western mind. I've grown up with a constant understanding of implicit liberties, so much so that I have the freedom to openly _discuss_ my general distrust of the government. The events that float by in HN are outliers: threats of more risk, but statistically unusual enough that they're stories of interest. This means that living and acting in a country where your very _thoughts_ are…

Remember that nobody was threatened or, as a result, morally offended by China until the last few years when we figured out we couldn't keep them at the bottom of the value chain forever. How do we live in a society where we can just be aimed at a new foreign enemy and all of our free, enlightened citizens go along every time? Russia (support afghanistan), Iran (support Iraq), Iraq (support gulf emirates), Al Qaeda,…

Disagree. Not only have Americans pointed out their disagreement with Chinese government for as long as I’m aware, one of our core foreign policy concepts was that doing commerce with China would push them to liberalize and adopt more Western values in their government.

As another commenter noted, what’s happened so far is that the quality of life has improved for so many Chinese that they seem willing to accept this system despite its problems. This may indicate American foreign policy was wrong-headed, but it’s still too early to tell. A middle class represents a large power base, and especially as second generation middle class Chinese come to adulthood, they may no longer see this model of government as acceptable. But: who knows? Nobody has a crystal ball.