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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#341

Post by coldtea »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

>Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison.

I'm not so sure. It just goes through a few more mediators and more roundabout ways.

In the end, the fruit companies that turned Latin American countries into banana repubics, for one example, had big support from the state and vice versa. Ditto for oil, telecommunications, social, and so on.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#342

Post by mdavis6890 »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

"If China wants to impose such restrictions on Western companies, they shouldn't get access to Western markets. And that's it."

Why? Why should we prohibit US citizens from purchasing things they want from wherever/whoever they want? Why would we do that to ourselves (I'm a US citizen), and to each other?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#343

Post by LamaOfRuin »

kbenson wrote: post #327
LamaOfRuin wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What's a country like the US or UK to do? Tell it's local companies that want to and are totally willing to shift IP to China to access the market "No, sorry, you aren't allowed to, even though you own that information and it's not a state secret"? Yes, that is literally what the US has always done. The government can ban you from exporting anything it wants, which explicitly includes tech transfer.

China isn't just taking tech IP. They're taking everything. They localized and took a bunch of train IP from German company they partnered with in the past. They've been doing it for decades. You can say we do that all the time, but have we really been prohibiting experienc and technology for diesel engines? Like you say, maybe we should, but it will be an interesting argument to have with companies that really want…

Stuff like train IP is actually included in tech, same as rockets would be. My understanding is this is a legal definition of technology which can include basically anything (especially anything you might ever patent or have patented).

I also didn't mean to imply that the US has done a lot of this. I don't think they have in the free trade era. I just meant to point out that it has always been done for some stuff (one of the most controversial and what introduced me to this many years ago was the crypto export ban). The last few years have already seen an explicit expansion of much more general purpose tech being restricted, with China being a known bad actor for forced tech transfer, so it doesn't seem like a stretch that we'll see more of it.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#344

Post by notabanker »

nabla9 wrote: post #63
rayiner wrote: post #44

Western executives are in over their heads dealing with China. I don't think they even realized who was holding their leashes until China decided to start yanking on them a bit.

Ray Dalio is fucked. Bridgewater has been expanding and expanding their Chinese assets. Dalio moved his Home Office to Singapore to really manage the assets from diversifying between America and China. He is still defending his position. (He can't talk negatively about Cina anyways) 'Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said investors are misconstruing China's regulatory clampdown on tech companies as "anti-capitalist."' h…

Does that mean Ray Dalio is pessimistic about US prospects and thinks China will dominate the future?

But how does one invest in China without worrying about their capricious, personality-centered policies?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#345

Post by coldtea »

yodsanklai wrote: post #193
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

Naive question here: why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Same thing for trade sanctions on Iran which impacted European companies but not China (if I'm not wrong). Seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else.

>why China is able to close its market to foreign companies?

Why shouldn't they? It's their market. Do you propose we do like the British, which bomb them and opened it by force to have them buy opium?

For perspecive, and to answer the "seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else", part, the US has historically had tons of tarrifs on its own, it's how it got big - they only switched to "free trade" when Europe was devastated from WW II, and the US was already top dog dictating this "free" trade terms:

"The United States pursued a protectionist policy from the beginning of the 19th century until the middle of the 20th century. Between 1861 and 1933, they had one of the highest average tariff rates on manufactured imports in the world." [1].

Even so, US still has tarrifs and protectionist policies in many areas, not to mention the whole "yield the power of our military and diplomatic power to enforce favorable deals making a mockery of the free market we pay lip service to" thing.

Not to mention selectively targeting countries they don't like to close their markets via embargos, and using their force to force adherence to those embargoes to other countries around the world, something which no country dares do back (and can't anyway). Talk about "not playing by the same rules as anybody else".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariff_in_United_States_histor...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#346

Post by causality0 »

mdavis6890 wrote: post #342
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

"If China wants to impose such restrictions on Western companies, they shouldn't get access to Western markets. And that's it." Why? Why should we prohibit US citizens from purchasing things they want from wherever/whoever they want? Why would we do that to ourselves (I'm a US citizen), and to each other?

The same reason we don't let people do business with North Korea or purchase stolen goods. The same reason we shouldn't let people buy conflict diamonds or clothes made with slave labor.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#347

Post by TheMagicHorsey »

Is this a true story? If so, this is an extraordinary indictment of the Chinese court system and a real wake up call for Silicon Valley.

Thus far I've been of the opinion that people exaggerate the danger that Chinese IP theft poses ... but this is just ridiculous. Has any major newspaper covered this? It seems like it should make headlines ... ARM IP is a strategic asset!

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#349

Post by masswerk »

TomAbel wrote: post #328
SkyMarshal wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter. A quite foolish assumption given the 20th century counterexamples of capitalism + authoritarianism - Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan. In the 90s, Wall St. and corporate America bankrolled the largest ever lobbying campaign to open US markets and the WTO to China, and got it by 2000. Just…

Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan practiced corporatism[1] rather than capitalism [1] https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/corporatism.htm

Regarding Nazi Germany, let's say, it's complicated. While it's true that Hitler apparently envisioned a corporate society in "Mein Kampf", in actuality, the industry was much more structured capitalist than anything else, even in WWII. Thus, corporatist tendencies merely controlled the labor force and bound the intellectual class and educational system to the state, rather than actually defining the economic system. (This is also true for Austria, which was an explicitly corporate state in the 1930s before the Anschluss.)

Edit: As far as economic theories of the "Third Reich" are concerned, there was (quite naturally) a fascination with Fordism.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#350

Post by colordrops »

sjs7007 wrote: post #188
colordrops wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things will get really ugly once you codify special classes citizens and other US persons. It won't happen even though conservative congresspeople have been pushing for it for decades.

Well you have security clearances already no?

Yes, the cohort with security clearances is very white and eurocentric, which perpetuates a racial/ethnic divide between the in and outgroups for power in the US. Yes, you can't be legally discriminated against when seeking to be a wage slave, but if you want to get into the real echelons of secrecy and power, it's status quo, and without transparency.
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