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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#311

Post by torstenvl »

colechristensen wrote: post #309
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

We buy peace with China by maintaining strong economic codependence. There is a huge cost, but not necessarily one not worth paying. Economic isolation would mean war.

We have war already. It just isn't a very hot one.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#312

Post by scythe »

SavantIdiot wrote: post #184
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

China hasn't made any power plays beyond currency manipulation. Greedy US/European CEOs handed the PRC the keys to the castle for short-term gains.

PRC has made irredentist claims to parts of Tajikistan (Pamir), India (Ladakh), Vietnam (Paracels) and of course Taiwan. They invaded Vietnam in 1979 when the latter overthrew the genocidal Khmer Rouge in Cambodia (PRC supported KR) and have provided support to both the Burmese and North Korean dictatorships. Granted, they haven't done nearly as much meddling as the United States, but they nonetheless demonstrate a willingness to turn a blind eye to the worst sorts of atrocities when it suits them, and a generally expansionist ethos.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#313

Post by mousepilot »

benreesman wrote: post #178
jackcosgrove wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're looking for a turning point, it was fall of 2001 with the 9/11 attacks and China's accession to the WTO. The USA became distracted and the 00s were the time when China's economy grew like gangbusters.

Speaking for myself I’m happy that many millions of people got lifted out of crushing poverty in Asia. I think it’s a good thing that the economy in the PRC started producing fewer famines and more of a middle class. The part I’m less happy about is whatever point the Western economies began working less well for most people in them. Even serious economists have trouble being rigorous about this sort of thing, so I w…

Libertarianism isn't very realistic anyways.

I read something pretty interesting recently that pretty much convinces me that the folks at the top get there by luck rather than merit. Obviously I'm sure that they themselves would disagree but I'm talking about them, not to them.

The US got to the position it is in the 20th century by luck, we discovered a new world with wealth to exploit, took the country from the indigenous, then had a stack of decades with slavery, then took that momentum into the world wars, coming out on top into the boom years when our competitors were saddled with rebuilding ruins.

If we're in decline then its our own undoing, heck we pretty much inherited the best deal in the world and pissed it away.

The people who like Ayn Rand don't like history.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#314

Post by anm89 »

wonnage wrote: post #285
baq wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is China, deep contacts with the CCP are expected. You can be sure that neither Musk nor Tesla has full control of the factory.

Basically every large corporation in existence has deep government ties, but CCP bad

Last time I checked the US wasn't harvesting organs, running concentration camps, blatantly committing genocide and ethnic cleansing.

Yes, CCP bad.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#315

Post by thetwotimer »

at_compile_time wrote: post #160
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

>any person born in mainland China is a security risk We've staffed our campuses and laboratories with these people because there's nothing university administrators like more than cheap labour. The Chinese Communist Party has agents inside western countries who can get to these people, to say nothing of what they can do to these people's families back in mainland China.

University administrators? More like any medium to large employer these days.

The carrot on the stick is gone for a lot of westerners and so they would rather bring in modern slaves from China, India, and Iran and blame the whole thing on "lazy" youth and "worker shortages". Gee, I wonder what the cause of that shortage is. Could it be because workers are miserable and have no foreseeable future? Nah, must be because the government is giving them a few thousand bucks.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#316

Post by ggm »

Not entirely defending things but observing that if you are of a view that IPR is basically absurd, "stealing" it may be equally absurd, but rational.

After you've stolen it, it's still "there" except for the exclusivity.

Chips will still exist, fab lines will still run. Profits have tanked, sure. Innovation is probably stifled but that's an opportunity loss.

There's a long history of stealing IPR at the state level around the world. States do this, private individuals do this, assets get seized everywhere from time to time.

'Sovereign risk' has always to be factored in to any business venture, anywhere. Nobody can possibly have been investing millions in China mainland without knowing this risk going in. At this point, "outrage" is part of the negotiating tactics. Outrage won't really stop this happening here or anywhere else. Bilateral consequences might? What Chinese assets will somebody seize?

The German petrochemical and drugs sector was economically robbed postwar WW1 and WW2 and personally I think somewhat rightly so. Bayer made cool drugs, but also helped the nazi party. Russia and America both took things as expropriation. Postwar, but.. does war make this IPR and asset claim really that much better?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#317

Post by leephillips »

nzmsv wrote: post #164
leephillips wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did he register with the US gov. as a foreign agent? If not, he should be apprehended next time he enters the US.

Go look up the actual requirement for FARA before spewing nonsense.

The FARA act covers a person who “solicits, collects, disburses, or dispenses contributions, loans, money, or other things of value within the United States” while acting in the interests of a “foreign government, a foreign political party, any person outside the United States ... and any entity organized under the laws of a foreign country or having its principal place of business in a foreign country.”

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#318

Post by tiberiusteng »

mokus wrote: post #147

This article repeats “安谋科技” so many times but as far as I can tell, doesn’t mention even once how I might attempt to pronounce it or recognize when anyone else mentions it in the future. Can anyone at least provide a transliteration?

"安謀" just rhymes with "ARM", so that's ARM Technologies in Chinese.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#319

Post by gandalfian »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201
yodsanklai wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Naive question here: why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Same thing for trade sanctions on Iran which impacted European companies but not China (if I'm not wrong). Seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

It's not over yet.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#320

Post by Nevermark »

athrowaway3z wrote: post #277
rossdavidh wrote: post #17

So, I cannot see this sort of thing stopping, until we see a point where non-Chinese investors revolt when they hear about the company they've invested going into China, rather than cheering. If investors have had such a change of heart at this point, I have not seen it.

I'm not sure I follow. If it's taken for granted that its impossible to make profits on the Chinese market, the best outcome for a company is to sell their IP to China and make sure the markets are kept completely segregated.

You can control the sale your own tech, but you have little control over whether you will then be competing against it down the road - regardless of the terms you thought you were all agreeing too.

The best way forward with any critical tech won't be a simple decision. Not competing in China, partnering in China, or selling tech for use only in China, all contain existential risks.

This is a battle happening at the Chinese (as a nation) vs. the non-Chinese world level. Non-Chinese tech actors will remain at high risk until the non-Chinese world can negotiate together with the same coherence as the Chinese system can.

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