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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#71

Post by nabla9 »

zoomablemind wrote: post #29

Are there examples of mainland-grown IP/technology breakthroughs that resulted from such "transfers"? It seems so far that this does enable China to further catch up and massively expand the use of the captured technology, but are there instances of them qualitatively surpassing it? I'm sure China has enough resources for advancements beyond replication, as much as it's capable of showcasing something to the rest of…

China repeats Japan 1950-1980. Focus on incremental innovation, instead of big leaps.

They started at the bottom rung of the quality chain. They are constantly climbing it up but the speed seems slow. Then suddenly they are in par or little ahead.

Chinese are already within a spitting distance in most technologies. Semiconductors have some technology bottlenecks like EUV machines that are hard to replicate. Chinese firms are already in a position where they don't need joint ventures. They hire directly senior engineers from South Korean and Taiwanese firms to work for them.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#72

Post by avaldes »

ipnon wrote: post #10

The visual cliche of the "evil Chinese man in front of a red background with five yellow stars" has come as far as that of the "hacker guy wearing a hoodie in a dark room with obfuscated JavaScript floating in the frame."

The "red background with five yellow stars" is the chinese flag. It's a common graphic pattern when you want to convey the idea of a person of geopolitical interest. Like putting Biden in front of the American flag o Macron in fron of the french one. Isn't specific to china nor represent any anti-china meaning.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#73

Post by abfan1127 »

monocasa wrote: post #51
syedkarim wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand the value of memorizing designs, plans, and technical drawings that are kept as proprietary information, but why bother memorizing a patent? Patents are public information and are only valid in the specific country granting the patent. Without additional local filings, foreign patents are not valid in America and vice versa.

Because Britain had a ban on exporting patents at the time and would search people leaving the country for patent documents, with jail time penalties.

certainly that was before email, encryption, and zip files?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#74

Post by throwawaysea »

barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

I’m not familiar with the story around maglev but it is certainly true for conventional high speed rail in China. See stories detailing blatant IP theft and deceptive partnerships such as https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704814204575507... or https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/alstom-and-s...

I wonder how this happens. Is it the naivety of leadership at western corporations, or is it simple greed because those leaders may show short term results that boost their compensation? And of course, I have to wonder why western governments don’t restrict their corporations from risking their economic and military sovereignty in the future through these terrible partnerships.

The same thing is happening in aerospace and it isn’t even new. For example China tried cloning a Boeing jet it acquired way back in 1980 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1980/05/09/c...). China’s more recent attempts are much more successful (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47689386) and although they rely on western avionics and engines, I am sure they’re busy trying to clone those as well.

EDIT: found an article detailing IP competition and theft relating to HSR broadly, including maglev (https://itif.org/publications/2021/04/26/heading-track-impac...)

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#75

Post by echelon »

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

As soon as we stop banning people from saying that.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#76

Post by monocasa »

abfan1127 wrote: post #73
monocasa wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Britain had a ban on exporting patents at the time and would search people leaving the country for patent documents, with jail time penalties.

certainly that was before email, encryption, and zip files?

Yes, this was the late 18th, early 19th century. A country's IP protectionism schemes obviously take a different approach now given modern communications media.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#77

Post by nickff »

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

You make the implicit assumption that it is possible to maintain an advantage in the market after destroying ongoing business relationships/expectations (as ARM China appears to have done). I think you may be overestimating the importance of 'apparent market power', and underestimating the value of consistency and adaptability.

Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. In contrast, more chaotic, free market economies tend to look messy in the short term, but achieve amazing, spontaneous order over time.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#78

Post by tambre »

mikkelam wrote: post #60

Isn’t it a matter of time before these licensed ISAs are dead anyway? With the advent of RISC-V is this really a problem? Obviously this way of doing business is not acceptable though

Having a license for the architecture isn't worth much if you aren't playing by the rules anyway. The IP and expertise for the best implementations? That's useful.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#79

Post by chillacy »

bigphishy wrote: post #62
comrade-hn wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the most competitive products in some categories are from China, for example in drones. It's only a matter of time until they work their way up the chain. Remember the Tim Cook quote how it's difficult to fill a room with machinists in US, while in China you can fill 3 football fields with them.

As far as I'm aware, the biggest innovation out of China in the past 300 years has been the face-kini. Seriously though, has this country produced any new invention? I would expect a country with 1.5 billion would come up with something novel. I can think of nothing unique, only modification of existing inventions.

As they say: "All art is derivative"

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#80

Post by trollski »

echelon wrote: post #75
denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

As soon as we stop banning people from saying that.

and blaming _everything_ on Ze Russians?
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