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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

61–70 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#61

Perhaps, as Scott Adams has said, "It is not safe to do business in China."

It is also not safe, from a business perspective, to ignore China altogether. Very difficult situation indeed.

It most certainly is not difficult. The ethics of it are exceptionally straightforward.

Greed is at the root of your conundrum. Put that aside, and you'll see more clearly.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#62

Are there examples of mainland-grown IP/technology breakthroughs that resulted from such "transfers"? It seems so far that this does enable China to further catch up and massively expand the use of the captured technology, but are there instances of them qualitatively surpassing it? I'm sure China has enough resources for advancements beyond replication, as much as it's capable of showcasing something to the rest of…

Some of the most competitive products in some categories are from China, for example in drones. It's only a matter of time until they work their way up the chain. Remember the Tim Cook quote how it's difficult to fill a room with machinists in US, while in China you can fill 3 football fields with them.

As far as I'm aware, the biggest innovation out of China in the past 300 years has been the face-kini.

Seriously though, has this country produced any new invention? I would expect a country with 1.5 billion would come up with something novel. I can think of nothing unique, only modification of existing inventions.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#63
post #44

Western executives are in over their heads dealing with China. I don't think they even realized who was holding their leashes until China decided to start yanking on them a bit.

Ray Dalio is fucked. Bridgewater has been expanding and expanding their Chinese assets. Dalio moved his Home Office to Singapore to really manage the assets from diversifying between America and China.

He is still defending his position. (He can't talk negatively about Cina anyways) 'Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said investors are misconstruing China's regulatory clampdown on tech companies as "anti-capitalist."' https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/ray-dalio-wrong-about-china-...

Already in 2018 someone asked: "Ray Dalio Needs China. Does China Need Ray Dalio?" https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1936rrvltbzc1...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#64
So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#65
post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

This gets overblown a lot in the same way that we used to discredit Soviet scientific advancements by claiming they stole all the important bits from the Americans. Yes, China does steal US technology and industry and yes, it has happened on a number of occasions with concrete documentation. However, that does not mean that China is not capable of innovation or shrewd business moves and it should not be assumed to be…

The fact that they are more than capable of innovation and shrewd business is the entire reason that casually stealing whatever they want on top of things is problematic.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#66
post #44

Western executives are in over their heads dealing with China. I don't think they even realized who was holding their leashes until China decided to start yanking on them a bit.

I know one shouldn't attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence, but in this case I think malice is where it's at. Western executives are not so dumb to think China will play nice with them. I've never met anybody whose spent more than 2 hours working with the Chinese who thinks they are remotely trustworthy. Western execs whole plan has been to pump short term numbers, cash in, and get out before the…

I met a US California man who made a lot, a lot of money selling western tech in China, and I believe he had exactly this intention, from anecdotal evidence.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#67
post #44

Western executives are in over their heads dealing with China. I don't think they even realized who was holding their leashes until China decided to start yanking on them a bit.

They don't care because they'll be long gone and next generations will be dealing with the problem. Same as engineers who come in at the start of a project and do a number on the architecture, get their accolades and bonus, leave to their next gig, and let the suckers deal with the BS they built.

the oldest trick in the book..

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#68
"Allen Wu has aggressively taken over the firm and is operating it how he sees fit. One interesting tidbit is that Allen Wu sued Arm China in order to declare his dismissal illegal. He essentially sued himself as he represented both sides in that specific court case. "

Well, Smart.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the most competitive products in some categories are from China, for example in drones. It's only a matter of time until they work their way up the chain. Remember the Tim Cook quote how it's difficult to fill a room with machinists in US, while in China you can fill 3 football fields with them.

As far as I'm aware, the biggest innovation out of China in the past 300 years has been the face-kini. Seriously though, has this country produced any new invention? I would expect a country with 1.5 billion would come up with something novel. I can think of nothing unique, only modification of existing inventions.

Have you an example of a western invention not based on existing technology?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maximizing short term profits.

CEOs answer to shareholders. Shareholders want returns. You want returns for your own investments and so do I.

I suppose shareholders also want to maintain ownership of the technology that makes their profits happen in the first place, right?

Wait, who am I kidding? Only a handful of shareholders decide the actions of a company, and even fewer know what the company actually does besides money-in = more-money-out. Most just want as much profit as fast as possible, hence the risks taken with China.

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