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Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

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Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#221

Post by empthought »

jart wrote: post #100
UncleOxidant wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, why aren't we putting more effort into getting an intranasal vaccine approved for emergency use? An intranasal vaccine would confer mucosal immunity and might also be more acceptable to the vaccine hesitant. They're talking about 3rd shot boosters, but I'd really like to be able to get an intranasal vaccine as the third booster.

I don't think anyone's concerned about IM vs. IN as they are mRNA vs. DNA. The boosters deliver double stranded helix straight to the nucleus like a Windows update. You'd have to pull an Apocalypse Now to roll that back. GM people nobody panics but GM organic food and everyone loses their minds.

You don’t know how vaccines or viruses work, do you?

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#222

Post by strenholme »

incrudible wrote: post #217
strenholme wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>your reply does not address my argument at all Yes, it does. I pointed out that the chance of getting Myocarditis is 0.002%, i.e. near zero. I also pointed out, and I repeat myself, that there have been 2,630 deaths from COVID-19 for 18-29 year olds (never mind the suffering COVID-19 causes people in this age range) [1]. Something that causes 2,630 deaths is more risky than something causing 229 non-fatal hospital v…

I still get the impression that you did not carefully read my reply, because it already addresses all the points you just made. > Something that causes 2,630 deaths is more risky than something causing 229 non-fatal hospital visits. This over-represents the risk groups. As you can see from the source[7] I posted, there's a massive difference between those with risk factors and those without. > I also observe you’re q…

As per your FDA figure 65 per million cases of Myocarditis in 12-17 year olds vaccinated:

At https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-Demog... we see 11,776,463 vaccines administered to 12-17 year olds. Using math: 765 cases, which are generally non-fatal.

Using https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex... we get 1,131 fatalities among 15-24 year olds.

This, again, is 12-17 year olds; I was using figures for young adults before, where the chance of getting Myocarditis is smaller and the chance of dying from COVID-19 is larger.

The worst case figures for vaccine side effects you have been able to come up with is that the number of Myocarditis cases is about the same as the number of COVID-19 deaths in the adolescent age group, as as per the FDA paper you brought up “available data from short-term follow up [of Myocarditis cases] suggest that most individuals have had resolution of symptoms”. Even here, I would prefer a condition which gets resolved over something which would kill me.

I know you don’t like me making bad faith assumptions, but in the real world, people who argue against getting vaccinated usually argue in bad faith, and the results of their arguments are increased deaths because people didn’t get the vaccine. As I posted elsewhere in this thread, it’s well known that, in the US, skepticism of vaccines and public health measures, unfortunately, are bad faith arguments being made with a political bias, and, lo and behold, people with a “COVID denial” political bent are much more likely to get a case of COVID-19 significant enough to report: https://i.redd.it/4o4i7arucpj71.png [1] Also, well over 95% of COVID-19 hospitalizations are from unvaccinated people: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5Qts7/9/

[1] The image is on Reddit, but the figures are from New York Times’s COVID-19 tracker and MIT Election Lab figures. My own graphs comparing COVID-19 infection rates in red states (states with right-wing governors) vs. blue states (left-wing governors) shows a much smaller COVID-19 Delta surge in places less “vaccine skeptical”; compare https://samiam.org/COVID-19/redStates.html and https://samiam.org/COVID-19/blueStates.html

So, before we talk any further, I need to know this: Did you get the COVID-19 vaccine? If not, why not? I will not reply to you until I know whether you have been vaccinated.

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#223

Post by bradydjohnson »

civilized wrote: post #25

There's a critical point I think is getting lost in the shuffle: vaccine immunity may be different from natural immunity, but (1) it does seem to protect against severe cases, (2) precisely because the protection is imperfect, the first infection you get after being vaccinated should train the immune system in a similar way as an unvaccinated infection. So to me, the real question is, what is your immunity like after…

Individuals with a combination of history of COVID and vaccination appear to have exceptionally strong protective immunity that has been described as "bulletproof." As published in Nature [1] and analyzed by JAMA [2], individuals who had been infected (even those with mild disease) and vaccinated had over 50 times more neutralizing antibody activity than those who were unvaccinated. This level of protection was more robust even than that seen in fully vaccinated individuals.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03696-9 [2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782139

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#224

Post by incrudible »

strenholme wrote: post #222
incrudible wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still get the impression that you did not carefully read my reply, because it already addresses all the points you just made. > Something that causes 2,630 deaths is more risky than something causing 229 non-fatal hospital visits. This over-represents the risk groups. As you can see from the source[7] I posted, there's a massive difference between those with risk factors and those without. > I also observe you’re q…

As per your FDA figure 65 per million cases of Myocarditis in 12-17 year olds vaccinated: At https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-Demog... we see 11,776,463 vaccines administered to 12-17 year olds. Using math: 765 cases, which are generally non-fatal. Using https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex... we get 1,131 fatalities among 15-24 year olds. This, again, is 12-17 year olds;…

The mistake you keep making, despite it being pointed out to you multiple times, is to consider age groups as a homogeneous cohort, even though it has been well-established that the overwhelming majority of deaths across all ages happen in risk groups. At this point, this appears to be willfull ignorance. I'm afraid that even if I were to give you a "pledge of allegiance" regarding my vaccination status, further discussion would not lead anywhere.

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#225

Post by caddybox »

jacquesm wrote: post #206
rossdavidh wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's about right for those who tested positive, but current CDC estimate is that for each one that tests positive, 3.3 others got it and never got tested. That makes the actual rate something like 0.38%. Which is a lot more than 0, and is even a lot more than a normal flu, but it's not 1.7%.

Sure, but the CDC is mostly talking about the United States and the world is a lot larger than that. People are still dying all over the globe from this in fairly high numbers. And in the developing part of the world we don't even really know the numbers at all, we only do for those places that have a reasonable infrastructure and where healthcare did not completely collapse.

Developing countries will probably have a larger undercount so estimates derived from the US may already be projecting a more conservative figure.

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#226

Post by strenholme »

incrudible wrote: post #224
strenholme wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As per your FDA figure 65 per million cases of Myocarditis in 12-17 year olds vaccinated: At https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-Demog... we see 11,776,463 vaccines administered to 12-17 year olds. Using math: 765 cases, which are generally non-fatal. Using https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex... we get 1,131 fatalities among 15-24 year olds. This, again, is 12-17 year olds;…

The mistake you keep making, despite it being pointed out to you multiple times, is to consider age groups as a homogeneous cohort, even though it has been well-established that the overwhelming majority of deaths across all ages happen in risk groups. At this point, this appears to be willfull ignorance. I'm afraid that even if I were to give you a "pledge of allegiance" regarding my vaccination status, further disc…

You haven’t read my other replies in this thread (You’re wrong: I have addressed co-morbidity) and you refuse to disclose your vaccination status. I have nothing more to say to you; productive discussion at this point is not possible.

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#227

Post by IgorPartola »

jacquesm wrote: post #145
dnautics wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true, it's not by much; mortality for covid-19 is less than a percent of all hospitalizations, iirc.

You make it sound as if that's good news.

If this was missed in the design of the study, why would it be good news?

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#228

Post by randomopining »

Johnny555 wrote: post #172
randomopining wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole point of my strategy would be that perhaps Delta is a precursor to a, let's say, Zeta variant that has almost complete evasion to the vaccine. Let's say in January or something. So what you're doing is giving your body a high chance to crush the Delta and gain some cross-immunity towards the future evasive variant. Whereas if you just relied on the vaccine, it might not even work well in January. Obviously…

Unless, of course, Zeta has almost complete evasion to natural immunity too. Then you've intentionally exposed yourself to Delta for no reason. I'll stick with my strategy of getting the vaccination (including a booster when eligible), and taking reasonable precautions against exposure.

If it comes from the lineage of the prevalent strain... there's no way that it would not have cross-immunity after 6 months.

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#229

Post by civilized »

bradydjohnson wrote: post #223
civilized wrote: post #25

There's a critical point I think is getting lost in the shuffle: vaccine immunity may be different from natural immunity, but (1) it does seem to protect against severe cases, (2) precisely because the protection is imperfect, the first infection you get after being vaccinated should train the immune system in a similar way as an unvaccinated infection. So to me, the real question is, what is your immunity like after…

Individuals with a combination of history of COVID and vaccination appear to have exceptionally strong protective immunity that has been described as "bulletproof." As published in Nature [1] and analyzed by JAMA [2], individuals who had been infected (even those with mild disease) and vaccinated had over 50 times more neutralizing antibody activity than those who were unvaccinated. This level of protection was more…

It would be interesting to know the order of events in the population studied (vaccination first or infection first?) and whether it seems to matter for the ultimate level of immunity achieved.

Re: Immunity Generated from Covid-19 Vaccines Differs from an Infection

#230

Post by logicalmonster »

munk-a wrote: post #184
logicalmonster wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> COVID-19, on the other hand, has an overall 1.66% chance of killing someone (38,043,754 cases, 629,644 deaths). An honest, apples to apples statistical comparison here would compare 18-24 year old death rates to 18-24 year old heart problems risk, not lumping all deaths regardless of age together. > I would rather take a 0.002% non-fatal risk than a 1.66% fatal risk. Statistical problems aside, I’m happy if you tak…

> I think all the unvaccinated want is the same absolute right to decide the same for themselves. And I, personally, refuse to grant them that courtesy. If you want to smoke twelve packs a day (while living in a country with no healthcare) then feel free buddy - but not getting vaccinated effects everyone - including those who choose to help move us past this pandemic by getting vaccinated. This isn't a question of i…

> And I, personally, refuse to grant them that courtesy.

Inalienable human rights are not a courtesy for you to grant.

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