TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#171

Post by snapcaster » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:26 PM UTC

brianwawok wrote: post #139

tromp wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transaction fees will always make it economical to mine. They currently make up a small fraction of the block reward, but within a decade or two (5 block subsidy halvings), we can expect them to dominate. Btw, not all cryptocurrencies are deflationary [1]. [1] https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-su...

It won't if people realize that BTC is not a useful product, and the price falls to $1k or $100. At that point no one except someone stealing electricity can afford to mine, so the entire monetary system collapses and becomes worth the same as US Civil War dollars (can maybe buy a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow full?)

Given that bitcoin has been around for 2008, at what point will you personally concede that it's not likely to happen? Why would it happen now if it didn't in the first 13 years?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#172

Post by ren_engineer » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:28 PM UTC

pcurve wrote: post #121

StephenSmith wrote: post #115

I'm in charge of sourcing components for multiple companies right now. I believe they could double (100%) prices and companies would pay it. There's chips that I'm sourcing from obscure places in China just to get the part and paying whatever price they ask. Designers are getting overwhelmed because they're having to redesign boards for components that are available, only to realize by the time they finish the change…

Their margin is approaching 40%. They're basically printing money at this point. It's hilarious how a manufacturer can be so profitable nowadays.

"service economy" was always a meme being sold to the gullible masses, manufacturing capacity is the only thing that matters for an economy. Manufacturing has always printed the money

It amazes me how the US allowed itself to be nearly deindustrialized after manufacturing effectively won them WWII and global dominance. Now the US can't even make ventilators or face masks

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#173

Post by nightski » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:28 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #114

1980phipsi wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPU's are market-rate goods?

Crypto mining is a market rate good.

Nvidia already added in a hardware crypto mining block to it's latest models and they are still having massive supply issues. It's not about crypto even though everyone likes to make a big deal out of it to feel better.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#174

Post by f32jhnjk33jj » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:30 PM UTC

Thank you cryptominers for everything you did for the mankind, especially huge GPU prices and insane air pollution caused by your mining farms.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#175

Post by beiller » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

Are they also raising prices of CPUs? Arm chips? Your argument is based on an assertion that sounds like it could be right, but is it? Hasn't every country in the world been injecting cash stimulus into people's hands in an epic attempt to boost demand across all industries? Also why are miners the target here. Are there not deep learning, gamers, anything else who also want to use these monsterous compute units? (GPUs specifically). Raising the price is temporary because someday another chip maker can be born. Every day the lithography tech is getting cheaper and cheaper is just a matter of time till this resolves itself. And let me ask, are chips a human right like water and food? We're getting close but honestly life can go on without GPUs can't it?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#176

Post by ErikVandeWater » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:35 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

"Shortage" is a technical term to describe a situation where outside influence is preventing supply from meeting demand at the market clearing price. I do think crypto falls into this category, as well as numerous government policies (every tax creates a shortage).

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#177

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:38 PM UTC

beiller wrote: post #175

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

Are they also raising prices of CPUs? Arm chips? Your argument is based on an assertion that sounds like it could be right, but is it? Hasn't every country in the world been injecting cash stimulus into people's hands in an epic attempt to boost demand across all industries? Also why are miners the target here. Are there not deep learning, gamers, anything else who also want to use these monsterous compute units? (GP…

[deleted]

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#178

Post by mastax » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:38 PM UTC

1980phipsi wrote: post #93

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And while I wholeheartedly agree with the crypto/GPU issue, all in all, the GPU market is overall fairly tiny compared to TSMC's total output. From an economics perspective, it doesn’t really matter. The price of a market-rate good is the marginal price of producing one more unit. As long as cryptocurrency is financially incentivizing people to consume 100% of the marginal production, prices will continue to go up.…

GPU's are market-rate goods?

Yes. We've seen chipmaker MSRPs inflated, especially in the most recent releases like the 6600XT. Chipmakers are constrained by contractual obligations and PR though. AIBs have also inflated their MSRPs for cards. They seem to have contractual agreements with the chipmakers to sell some portion of their cards at Chipmaker MSRP, at least around the launch. However, to their best ability they are putting their die allocation into their highest end card variants that have the highest MSRPs. Then distributors, retailers, and PC builders mark up the cards over the AIB MSRP. Again, these are often limited to some extent by agreements with their suppliers. If all of these markups don't reach the market rate the cards are bought up by scalpers with bots and sold at the true market rate on eBay.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#179

Post by dannyobrien » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:41 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

Is there any evidence for this claim?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#180

Post by phone8675309 » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 2:43 PM UTC

trainsplanes wrote: post #148

l-lousy wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m saving up for the flood of old GPUs. I can finally realize my dream of taking all my ML work off the cloud once I scoop up some old mining GPUs for relatively cheap

You really may be waiting a good while. And if a desirable used model is ever a decent price, it’ll be a unit burnt out from mining fake money that’s only used to buy real money or a mail order of LSD.

Mining usually does not "burn out" a GPU. Most miners cool their cards adequately and undervolt them. If a GPU is somehow damaged from mining then it’s typically observable - it either does not work or it artifacts quickly, making it easy to detect and avoid.