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TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#71

Post by ATsch »

zip1234 wrote: post #62
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

While Crypto is certainly a contributor to demand, I think a large part of the problem is related to a demand spike similar to the 'toilet paper shortage', where companies try to stockpile because they hear there will be a shortage, which in turn makes the problem worse. Additionally, COVID stoppages caused chaos in supply.

The toilet paper shortage is kind of a bad example, because it was caused by a very real and sudden shift in demand from the very seperate commercial and personal toilet paper manufacturing markets.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#72

Post by PragmaticPulp »

cwizou wrote: post #63
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

> I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. One thing I heard is that the drought (worst one in 50 years in Taiwan) has really affected them, and various sources seem to confirm it, here's one : https://fortune.com/2021/06/12/chip-shortage-taiwan-drought-... And while I wholeheartedly agree with the crypto/GPU issue, all in a…

> And while I wholeheartedly agree with the crypto/GPU issue, all in all, the GPU market is overall fairly tiny compared to TSMC's total output.

From an economics perspective, it doesn’t really matter. The price of a market-rate good is the marginal price of producing one more unit. As long as cryptocurrency is financially incentivizing people to consume 100% of the marginal production, prices will continue to go up.

This also cascades down their lineup: Vendors who would like to use 7nm for their chip will instead choose 10nm, which will bump some of the customers who wanted to use 10nm back to the 12nm or 16nm nodes and so on.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#73

Post by _huayra_ »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

Honest question: is it possible to make a cryptocurrency that does not rely on some real-world scarce resource (e.g. chips, electricity, drive space)?

This seems to be a cornerstone of what makes any crypto valuable in the first place (scarcity), and as long as that scarcity has real-world consequences, it seems like it would have the same result.

Chia claimed to "Save the world from proof-of-work wastage", but it would just turn a GPU crunch into a HDD crunch.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#74

Post by officialchicken »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #60
officialchicken wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how crypto has become easy-to-blame, when in fact datacenter after datacenter is being stuffed to the brim with chips for ML workloads. It's important to recognize when consumers are being squeezed by multiple market forces.

The issue is that crypto mining is the only system designed to have negative marginal utility for each GPU consumed. It literally pays people to take energy and GPUs away from the open market for zero incremental gain to the network. The difference is that each additional iPhone or ML accelerator or cloud server CPU provides incrementally more utility. More ML accelerators means more ML processing. Proof-of-work mini…

I have capital I want to deploy. Zero/Negative interest rates are a reality. Traditional broker managed investments are a hot zone for fees. Newer tools for access to markets is covered by reddit day traders; real estate is also highly competitive due to airbnb businesses and other forces.

Capital will always find the easiest path, and right now that's crypto and no one on HN is complaining about micro-VC activity.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#75

Post by PragmaticPulp »

ksec wrote: post #38

1. This is specifically mainstream node, or everything except leading edge 3nm / 5nm. 2. Those price has been like that for sometime since the chip shortage. They just make it official now. 3. The mainstream and social media will and always have been blaming it on TSMC. 4. Everyone wants all the capacity they need, while not paying a cent more. This announcement will "somehow" made it fair for everyone in the industr…

> 1. This is specifically mainstream node, or everything except leading edge 3nm / 5nm.

Yes, but only because leading edge is contracted out well into the future. Prices for those nodes will definitely be higher when contracts are written.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#76

Post by sct202 »

LinuxBender wrote: post #56

Is TSMC based out of Taiwan? Do they have fabrication plants anywhere else? What company will pick up the demand if/when China takes control of Taiwan?

TSMC has a few smaller fabs currently outside of Taiwan, 2 in China, 1 in the US (WaferTech not the Arizona plant under-construction) and 1 in Singapore.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#77

Post by [deleted] »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

[deleted]

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#78

Post by l-lousy »

photon-torpedo wrote: post #42
temp8964 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not just purchase a used one on eBay?

Prices for used GPUs are also inflated, though I think they have started to come down a bit. Once Ethereum moves to proof-of-stake (early 2022?) the market will probably get flooded with used GPUs.

I’m saving up for the flood of old GPUs. I can finally realize my dream of taking all my ML work off the cloud once I scoop up some old mining GPUs for relatively cheap

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#79

Post by officialchicken »

pW9GLKxm9taFEhz wrote: post #61
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

Are people mining crypto on PS5s and Xboxes?

No love for automotive infotainment systems and dashboard gauges? Those have actually caused real economic damage due to manufacturing shutdowns.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#80

Post by markus_zhang »

jjoonathan wrote: post #4

Supply shortages are the excuse du jour, but so long as TSMC has the kingmaking node I expect it to become expensive. Very expensive. Expensive enough to move margin from the king their node made right back to TSMC.

Wouldn't other people catch up quickly?
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