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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#721

Post by epmaybe »

rayiner wrote: post #372
adrr wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

> It boggles my mind why there is pushback on mandating kids to wear masks in schools. It really shouldn’t if you’re an educated person who is following what scientific authorities are saying. The science here is still uncertain, but leaning towards masks for kids in schools not being worth it. See: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-maski... > At the end of May, the Centers for Disease Control an…

Would note that the report found 21% reduced risk of infection in required mask use for students vs optional. Not considered statistically significant because the confidence interval included 1.0. (CI was 0.50 - 1.08)

One could argue that an increased sample size would yield a statistically significant result, and on the flip side another could argue that the effect size would be minimal if you need a larger sample size.

The rebuke, of course, is that even one extra case could kill a loved one that the kid would spread disease on to.

Personally, perhaps reframing the argument that one should wear a mask at school so that they shouldn't have to wear one at home would be a more compelling argument, but I suspect many would disagree..

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#722

Post by beerandt »

TenJack wrote: post #712
partiallypro wrote: post #685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must be joking? As bad as (some) Republicans are let's not forget Biden, Harris, Schumer, etc saying they wouldn't take the "Trump Vaccine." Not only did that put distrust into the hearts of people on the left, it also gave ammunition for the people on the right. It should have never been a political issue. Unfortunately this is a bipartisan problem (though right now it's more prevalent on the right, I suspect if…

As far as I can tell Biden and Harris said they distrusted the Trump rollout of the vaccine but not the vaccine itself. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jul/23/tiktok-pos...

What is that supposed to mean, except don't trust the product being rolled out?

The factcheck word twisting is getting out of control.

But if anything, this distinction is worse, because instead of saying don't trust a controversial product, it's saying don't trust this controversial product because you shouldn't trust the/this government promoting it.

And that's largely what made this, or magnified it, as a political issue: the broader acceptance of saying it's ok to distrust the government depending on what politician is speaking.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#723

Post by frakkingcylons »

ttobbaybbob wrote: post #601

It will be interesting to understand the long-term impact of covid on immunity. Given that covid came from GoF research have we developed defenses (albeit at an ultimately very-high price) that will protect us from future novel coronaviruses ? other classes of virus? (ie how the plague resistance in those of european descent gives some level of protection against hiv [0]) Is this something we have a way to measure or…

While the lab escape theory is possible, there’s definitely not enough evidence to just state it like it’s fact (as you just did).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#724

Post by dongping »

nomel wrote: post #713
dongping wrote: post #644

Nonpharmaceutical interventions do work. With Internet and E-commerce, full scale lockdown becomes tenable. Together with mass PCR testing, the virus can be eradicated. The virus can't teleport, and it is here to stay only because the decision-makers thought that it was the cheaper option to let it spread (it is not), then didn't want to admit being wrong. It is sad to see that with all the technologies available, th…

I think it would be useful for you to go through the employment by occupation percentages [1] to get an idea of the percentage of jobs that would be eradicated with sustained full lockdown, for those that can't work from home. 1. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-detailed-occupation.ht...

How long would a full lockdown take? (a real one, not a mockdown)

The experience in Wuhan shows that 76 days would be enough to eradicate the virus from a massive outbreak. So the loss would be way less than 20% of the GDP (since essential economic activities would still be going on [1], and there would be people being able to work from home. Government could still use financial instrument/regulation to alleviate the damage).

I don't think the the US would be able to do such a large project, but I had thought that the European bureaucratic system was organized enough. I was apparently wrong.

[1] To give some perspectives on the GDP contributed by different sectors https://www.statista.com/statistics/247991/value-added-to-th...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#725

Post by quickthrowman »

dpweb wrote: post #693
criticaltinker wrote: post #641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are a "political wedge issue" not because of the "conspiracy nut in every village", but because the scientific literacy of the general public is astonishingly low, and the second and third order consequences of public health policy are tremendously complex. We must encourage discussions that move beyond overly-simplistic dualistic framing such as "vax versus anti-vax", "individual choice versu…

Also, the question of should a government force its citizens to have a medical procedure. Or de-facto forcing by requiring proof for common daily activities. This issue was then weaponized for political purposes, and people got militant about it. But governments have consistently lied/been wrong about this virus, so there is no trust either in their messaging about this crisis.

> Also, the question of should a government force its citizens to have a medical procedure.

There’s a Supreme Court decision[0] about whether states can mandate a vaccine (they can).

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobson_v._Massachusetts

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#726

Post by president »

at_a_remove wrote: post #218
User23 wrote: post #132

What baffles me is the total failure to highlight one of the best ways to mitigate the risk of severe covid complications: don’t be obese[1]. It’s also a good life choice for those who also prefer not to die of non-covid conditions. Edit: And it increases your risk for long covid[2]. [1] https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/latest-evidence-on... [2] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210608/obesity-increases-r...

The, uh, tone of your comment suggests that there is this epidemic of obese people who simply have neglected to press the STOP BEING OBESE button. "All you have to do is ..." "Can't you just ..." In technology, we hate hearing that from people who do not have a grasp of the situation -- why are you doing it here? That button doesn't exist. That's the source of your bafflement.

You could same about "Can't you just take the jab?" and "Can't you just wear a mask?". If you want to be the one deciding who has to do something, then that's called authoritarianism and it's the reason why so many people are pissed off about the all of the covid restrictions.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#727

Post by grillvogel »

dongping wrote: post #716
grillvogel wrote: post #670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

permanent lockdown should be encouraged because we have the internet and can buy stuff online? sorry but no.

Either we do a full lockdown to reach zero COVID, like NZ and China did (while buying stuff online), or we would have to do prolonged mockdowns like in Europe. The Chinese have been living a mostly normal life (albeit with limited foreign travel possibilities, and sporadic lockdowns in isolated locations) for a year.

zero covid is unrealistic. how are things gonna pan out when the hypothetical zero covid nation opens up to outside travelers?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#728

Post by dubyah »

makomk wrote: post #646
criticaltinker wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GP's statement contradicts the scientific literature - vaccination does reduce viral load of subsequent infection, and consequently reduces transmission [1]. However folks should be aware that immunity acquired through natural infection is robust and durable, and also has the same effect of reducing viral load and transmission [2]. It has been documented that people with asymptomatic infection will clear the virus qu…

Covid-19 vaccination used to reduce viral load of subsequent infections. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to work with the current Delta variant - both the CDC in the US and PHE in the UK have released studies finding that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated people is basically the same. They're also not so effective at stopping people from catching the Delta variant, and when you combine that with its high…

Round 13 of the Imperial College REACT-1 study did still indicate an average lower viral load(higher Ct values) in vaccinated individuals.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#729

Post by GuB-42 »

laurent92 wrote: post #563
xadhominemx wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine refusal has not become a major partisan political issue in any other country. It happened here because of the shameless cynicism of the Republican Party and aligned media apparatus.

Same in France: Macron, the entire government and their health advisors said the following: - Everyone should go to the opera/cinema to fight Covid (7th March 2020) - Lockdown for everybody (20th March) (I guess people caught it in the theaters…) - Masks are useless, absolutely useless for the general public (June 2020), - Masks are mandatory (September), - Blocking borders is useless, Covid will be here, - Borders b…

None of these are contradictions, they are reactions to a disease we don't know much about.

- The population is panicking for only a few cases, people are even avoiding Chinese restaurants even when the owners have never been in China. The government wants people to stop panicking, the risks are still extremely low.

- Cases rise exponentially, faster than expected (possibly due to a new variant), hospitals are filling up, now we need to take it seriously

- That one is actually subtle, they told that surgical masks are for the sick and FFP2 (N95) masks are for health professionals, there was a shortage of masks and we didn't have enough for the general public. But they try to say it in a way that would limit fighting over masks, people still fought and stole masks, leaving people who really needed them without protection, I guess saying that masks are vital would have made things worse.

- Masks are back in stock

- Blocking borders is indeed mostly useless when covid is here in large numbers, it is only useful when you have a strict eradication policy and your country is not well connected, not the case of France.

- The point of a lockdown is to limit movement in general, blocking borders is part of it

- In May the situation was improving, vaccination was extremely successful, we were on our way to being mostly covid-free in the summer. There was no reason for such restrictions.

- Delta variant

- Vaccine is the right thing, it has always been the right thing, just look at the data if you don't trust the government. Even a less effective vaccine protects you.

- It is an emergency situation, no time to waste in lawyering, and I am glad they did, delta breakouts in unvaccinated areas are deadly (see DOM/TOM). It doesn't mean safety wasn't taken seriously, all vaccines available in France passed the trials.

- off topic

I am not a fan of Macron, or any political party for that matter, but without the benefit of hindsight everything looks reasonable considering the information available at that time and the specificities of the country. If you think it is bad what would you have done differently? Remember: you have no crystal ball, an unruly population, and a budget.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#730

Post by Graffur »

mike00632 wrote: post #656
nerdponx wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they burned huge amounts of their social trust capital in doing so, because they didn't just say "there are shortages, please stop hoarding masks", they outright lied about the efficacy of masks and perpetuated the lie for months. If people have no idea what to believe, it's because the government led a catastrophically inept response.

No. The CDC said AT THE TIME that they didn't recommend everyone wearing masks because hospitals were facing shortages. They have always been open about their reasoning and data. Quit repeating this terrible lie.

You're trying hard to rewrite what happened
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