The Coronavirus Is Here Forever • Hacker News Board

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#441

Post by thingification » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:20 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #416

thingification wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long COVID exists. Personally, it's always worried me more than the risk of death from COVID. I think people who haven't had a chronic condition (including doctors) tend to underestimate the impact they can have on your life. Long COVID symptoms may not be "severe" or "serious" in a medical coding dictionary, but those terms in a medical dictionary are quite distinct from their everyday meanings. The best evidence we…

Yes, but, the reality is that everyone is going to get exposed to this virus eventually. Probably not that long from now, if you haven't yet. Pretending that evading it forever is possible, is not helping people to make wise decisions; I think many of the unvaccinated currently believe they can evade both the virus and the vaccine (they are incorrect). Eventually, long covid or not, we are all getting exposed. We sho…

One point is that the consequences of getting COVID are likely to become less serious over time as prevalence is controlled (via better vaccines, we hope, masks etc., if we're not fatalistic), better drugs are found.

Another important point is that currently, the risks of long COVID seem not at all well understood. "Unknown risk" is quite a different thing than "low risk" or "high risk". The lengths to which it makes sense for people to go to avoid it right now depend on those risks, so lying low seems quite sane to me.

A worse problem still is, I think, that "we're all going to get it" is a self-fulfilling prophecy: viruses have been unconquerable in the recent past, but this is 2021, we have incredible understanding of the mechanisms (no, not most of the details: they're not all worth knowing) that should give us incredible power over them at some point in the relatively near future (as in the next few decades). If the next few decades, why not the next few years? If we believe it's "inevitable", we'll make it so. (not to mention abandoning effective measures like masks)

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#442

Post by selimthegrim » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

evgen wrote: post #388

staticassertion wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK seems to have a 62% full vaccination rate with 71% having at least one dose[0]. That sounds really low to me. "Close to full vaccination" to me would imply close to 100% or, reading "full" as "reaching herd immunity" I'd think 70-80% fully vaccinated - still a very long way to go. I hear you that we will eventually reach a point where we've hit the new normal. It's just going to be whether that point is reache…

The UK has only just started vaccinating under-18s, who make up a significant chunk of the population, and they are not vaccinating anyone under 16 yet. This is going to skew the numbers a bit. Among older age groups the numbers get up into the 80s and 90s. We are also lagging among BAME groups and in certain economically deprived areas. If you are a white 75 year-old in Wimbledon the odds that you are vaccinated are…

>a 30 year-old Pakistani immigrant in Bradford

Are there reasons for hesitancy expressed among the population?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#443

Post by eli » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #372

adrr wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

> It boggles my mind why there is pushback on mandating kids to wear masks in schools. It really shouldn’t if you’re an educated person who is following what scientific authorities are saying. The science here is still uncertain, but leaning towards masks for kids in schools not being worth it. See: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-maski... > At the end of May, the Centers for Disease Control an…

Yes, scientific uncertainty is a thing. It would be great if we instantly had tons of studies and replications showing exactly how effective different measures are, but that is just not how it works. I can cite many models that show masking works, if you're curious.

This same line of argument was used to question climate change for decades and to support the argument that we should not take any aggressive measures to avoid it.

There's a good chance wearing masks in schools makes the community safer from serious illness. And the risk in wearing masks if they prove to be useless is...what exactly? That masks are a little uncomfortable?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#444

Post by nickthemagicman » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

joshuaissac wrote: post #169

nickthemagicman wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Condoms have a 99.9% effectiveness. Studies have shown that face mask policies have around a 1% effectiveness.

According to this study by the University of Cambridge, FFP3 masks provided "31-100% protection (and most likely 100%)": https://www.authorea.com/users/421653/articles/527590-ffp3-r... (preprint).

Face mask policies on a community level.

Not with trained healthcare workers.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#445

Post by defgeneric » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

q1w2 wrote: post #294

Pyramus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains. (Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

This is not exactly true. Keeping your infectious host alive longer, will increase transmission. This is why there is an evolutionary pressure for all diseases to keep your host alive, and why some diseases/parasites ultimately evolve to be less harmful/lethal.

> This is why there is an evolutionary pressure for all diseases to keep your host alive

Lethality should be distinguished from "keeping the host alive." For example, HIV is more than 90% lethal (untreated) but can take a decade before killing the host.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#446

Post by eli » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

h3cate wrote: post #221

rossdavidh wrote: post #36

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

Cases are more than doubling every 2 weeks. Hospitalizations are up every day.

If the numbers were flat maybe you would have an argument, but I strongly disagree that we need to "learn to live" with a situation that is rapidly getting worse. I do not want to learn to live with full hospitals and oxygen shortages, as is currently happening in parts of the US.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#447

Post by verall » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #420

Scoundreller wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add ferrets to the list of natural reservoirs. Thankfully birds and pigs seem to be immune, which could have had a huge impact on food supply and transmission. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6494/1016

I seem to recall them walking back the conclusion that dogs do not transmit well, but don't have the reference at hand. I wonder if they were actually mistaken at first, or if the virus has simply evolved in the direction of being better transmitted by dogs? I wouldn't be surprised if they end up concluding that pigs can catch and transmit as well, eventually. Birds does seem to be more likely to hold true, as I don'…

I dunno what you're on about, dogs do not realistically transmit covid. Their respiratory system is more different to humans than a cat's. Ferrets and other animals with extremely similar respiratory systems are known reservoirs and have already been culled in some countries.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#448

Post by MeinBlutIstBlau » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:28 PM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #64

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Israel has close to full vaccination, yet cases are going up because immunity is falling again and there are new variants. It's understandable why the restrictions are back again.

If COVID is here to stay and previous lockdowns still did not stop the spread, even with vaccine rates at almost everyone, how is another lockdown going to stop it? This isn't just ignorant "muh freedoms" talking here but irrational governments playing god too much as if they could even possibly do that that without complete fascistic control.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#449

Post by maccam94 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:33 PM UTC

freewilly1040 wrote: post #391

marwatk wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with your numbers it puts a kid's chances of ending up hospitalized with covid at 1 in 128. Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group, but I'll still feel much better when my kid is vaccinated.

The positive case count is not the denominator. The chances of your kid ending up hospitalized with Covid are 287 / 100K, or .29%.

There's about 50 million kids under 12 in the US, so while that percentage looks small that's still ~150,000 kids going to the hospital. I believe the real percentage is probably a bit lower due to underreported infections, but it's worth remembering that even small percentages can have huge effects in a country with hundreds of millions of people.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#450

Post by PartiallyTyped » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 5:34 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #435

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does covid transmit to wild animals like deer that have almost no interactions with humans ? The transmission chain must be very long. I'd appreciate any links or resources to read more. Perhaps we can learn to be more mindful of our interactions with other animals, wear masks in public spaces or public transport, and hopefully WFH becomes a permanent option. It seems that I stepped on many nerves, please, feel f…

As to "how does covid transmit to wild animals...", I think it is an excellent question, but I don't think we have a definitive answer. Clearly there is something about the transmission we don't understand (which suggests why current measures to halt the spread such as lockdowns, masks, etc. don't seem to work well). As for the "stepped on many nerves", I think your comment was interpreted as meaning "we should stay…

The replies I received are mostly insufficient or very handwavey.

Interactions with humans transmitting the Delta variant, in very extreme (NB shortest) cases need upwards of 50-60 seconds, where common transmissions need longer. Which suggests that people need quite long 1-1 interactions with multiple animals to spread it, which to me appears very unlikely.

This belief is based on research that supported that covid was unlikely to happen until the first super-spreader event in the wet market.

Furthermore, given the symptoms observed in humans, if we are to assume similar symptoms in the wild animals, then odds are these animals become easy(er) pray, which reduces odds of mass transmission. Finally, even if wild animals spend a lot of time in 'close proximity', they are constantly out-doors and in much larger distance than humans sitting in public transport, which suggests there are super-spreader "events" or viral-sources that dump virus particles on wild animals and allow the virus to enter the population.

So I do agree that there may be something we are overlooking, perhaps related to waste-water, but this is why I am asking. Even if it doesn't matter anymore wrt covid, it matters for the future.

As for the people that misinterpret the noun 'option' accompanied with the adjective 'permanent', they need to understand that the ability for those willing to WFH, will help deal with covid, reduce road congestion, gas emissions, time wasted in commute, and ease measurements. I am not advocating for permanent lockdowns or anything alike. But it is common knowledge that flu infections have reduced significantly, and masks can help deal with smog in cities, as is done in cities in Asia.