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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#161

Post by jjgreen »

carnitine wrote: post #54
SamBam wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

What restrictions are there in the UK? As far as I know in England and Wales where the vast majority live there are none except for those around international travel or imposed by private enterprise.

They're pretty much gone, there are still some mask requirements on, e.g., London underground, but 50% compliance? There is some talk of introducing a vaccine passport for nightclubs, football grounds in a month or two.

For me, the mood in London is "we've had enough, it's endemic, let's live with it".

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#162

Post by lamontcg »

hcurtiss wrote: post #66
alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#163

Post by jrockway »

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Maybe "mask requirements" are a sign of society advancing? There was a time in human history when we didn't bathe regularly, or brush our teeth, or have sewage removal systems in cities, etc. Maybe the next step is "you know, breathing in particles that came from the other 600 people in this railcar is not so great".

I certainly don't see a reason to go maskless on public transportation in the future. And, as supply chain problems work themselves out, someone will probably make masks that actually filter out virus-size particles and fit more people's faces. (I feel like every mask I've bought so far during the pandemic has either been completely ineffective, or has been designed to fit someone that is 1/3 my size.)

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#164

Post by jtbayly »

firecall wrote: post #99
colordrops wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

This is not true of Delta strain. Younger people, under 30, and children are getting it and ending up in hospital. It’s widely reported here in Australia. Children are at risk.

It's widely reported in the US, too. But the data doesn't bear it out.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#165

Post by celticninja »

cm2187 wrote: post #30
celticninja wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What restrictions do you mean? I am in the UK and facing no restrictions in daily life.

No restriction? You will have a nasty surprise if you return from a red list country. Plus mandatory covid tests before and after returning to the UK. Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app. Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

No mandatory face masks on public transport, and only advisory quarantine if you are pinged by the app. I don't want to go back to the office.

Sure it may differ If I travel but that's one restriction not a multitude as you suggest.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#166

Post by jrockway »

qwerty456127 wrote: post #152
001spartan wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Returning to normal is a terrible idea when COVID patients are overwhelming hospitals across the world. How can things be normal if our healthcare systems are nearing collapse? You might be willing to accept the risk of getting sick on your behalf, but by advocating a return to 'normal' before we have the capabilities to deal with this virus, you are advocating for putting even more stress on healthcare systems acros…

Politicians say this all the time. I doubt anything we can do can change this. Just build more hospitals. We have resolved the masks shortage, we will resolve the shortage of ventilators and hospitals also. We can even soften the shortage of medical personnel by directing the unemployed to paid full-time medical boot camps. I understand this is much easier said than done but we hardly have a choice if we actually wan…

If medical boot camps are as effective as Javascript boot camps... you may want to wait a while before exposing yourself to other people's germs.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#167

Post by PartiallyTyped »

rossdavidh wrote: post #36

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

How does covid transmit to wild animals like deer that have almost no interactions with humans ? The transmission chain must be very long. I'd appreciate any links or resources to read more.

Perhaps we can learn to be more mindful of our interactions with other animals, wear masks in public spaces or public transport, and hopefully WFH becomes a permanent option.

It seems that I stepped on many nerves, please, feel free to disagree or argue.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#168

Post by lamontcg »

leoedin wrote: post #97
HarryHirsch wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel has close to full vaccination, yet cases are going up because immunity is falling again and there are new variants. It's understandable why the restrictions are back again.

But what's the end goal? Do we keep lockdown restrictions forever? The case fatality rate for a vaccinated population is really low. There must be an acceptable level - after all we don't lock down for other endemic viruses which also have non-zero CFRs. What is it? Have we reached it?

The acceptable level is pretty much defined by when the hospitals aren't falling over again.

If everyone would just get vaccinated, we'd be there.

Instead people are for whatever reason ignoring the risks of the virus, and if the rate of hospitalization in their age category is only 1 in 50, enough of them making that choice mean that 2% of them guessing wrong is knocking the hospital system over again.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#169

Post by joshuaissac »

nickthemagicman wrote: post #40
js8 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, we learned to limit its spread, but with "masks" (condoms).

Condoms have a 99.9% effectiveness. Studies have shown that face mask policies have around a 1% effectiveness.

According to this study by the University of Cambridge, FFP3 masks provided "31-100% protection (and most likely 100%)": https://www.authorea.com/users/421653/articles/527590-ffp3-r... (preprint).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#170

Post by jfengel »

rajin444 wrote: post #147
jfengel wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much "fuck the kids" as "fuck the teachers". Even if you believe that "kids don't get sick from COVID", you can't ignore that teachers do. And many of them are in high-risk groups -- older, with comorbidities. Most are vaccinated, but they're still taking a risk. Teachers are already smarting over the fact that (in the US) they're literally trained to take a bullet for their kids. So when you tell them to…

> Most are vaccinated, but they're still taking a risk Pre pandemic they took a risk every day as well, so it's a matter of acceptable risk, which I believe is what the article was focused on. What level of risk is that?

That existing risk was already at the limit of acceptability. New risk being added on pushes many past that limit.

It's made worse by the fact that this additional risk is being left out of the discussion so often. People talk about what's good for the children and their parents and the economy, but not about what the teachers need. They're being treated as disposable, which exacerbates the perception of risk further.

Discussions about school openings that ignore a critical factor are not going to result in what people hope for.

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