The Coronavirus Is Here Forever • Hacker News Board

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#391

Post by freewilly1040 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

marwatk wrote: post #368

tzs wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's delta like for under 16? In the US through May 2021, so it might not be a good representation for delta, here were the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths per 100k for various age groups: Age Inf Hosp Deaths 0-17 37k 287 0.5 18-49 44k 1100 25 50-64 32k 2600 85 65+ 22k 5200 1140 Unless the numbers for delta are way higher, that suggests that for under 17 getting your immunity by actually getting COVID is f…

Even with your numbers it puts a kid's chances of ending up hospitalized with covid at 1 in 128. Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group, but I'll still feel much better when my kid is vaccinated.

The positive case count is not the denominator. The chances of your kid ending up hospitalized with Covid are 287 / 100K, or .29%.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#392

Post by AndrewBissell » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

NationalPark wrote: post #362

Aeolun wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they’re spending the whole day in a classroom together the effect of masks is going to be minimal.

That's simply not what the research has found. Edit: Allow me to clarify - the research everyone is citing that says masking is effective in teachers and ineffective in students (the 37% number) predates both the delta variant and widespread infection in Southern states. Further, masking is understood etiologically as a prevention method and has been used successfully in other outbreaks and in other countries. Clinic…

Here's an NPR article discussing a CDC study which found no statistically significant impact from kids wearing masks in school: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/999106426/schools-are-droppin...

Key paragraph: Between Nov. 16 and Dec. 11, researchers found that infection rates were 37% lower in schools where teachers and staff members were required to wear masks. The difference between schools that did and did not require students to wear masks was not statistically significant.

A good recent article in NY Mag also discussing this issue, including the fact that the World Health Organization recommends against masking kids under six: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-maski...

Many countries in Europe have decided against masking for any students in K-12 schools because it is unclear that the harms outweigh the benefits. The idea there is some "simple" scientific & research consensus on this is wrong.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#393

Post by corona-research » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

Corona is dystopian fascism.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#394

Post by AndrewBissell » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

throwaway4good wrote: post #383

martin_bech wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The masks part is easy.. it has no effect.. We have been on and off masks here in Denmark, and it seems to have no effect on spread. Also mostly you get covid when not wearing one.. from a family member or a friend..

It has a quite an effect. If you notice at the moment the corona numbers are high in Netherlands and Denmark while low in Germany. Because Germany has kept more restrictions in place, in particular mask wearing in shops and transport.

You can cite 100 counterexamples when using this simplistic kind of reasoning. Covid numbers are quite high in South Korea and Japan which both have sky-high mask compliance, for example.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#395

Post by mdp2021 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:39 PM UTC

jader201 wrote: post #307

jasonlaramburu wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My personal (apparently risky, I don't recommend it to others) strategy This seems to be the fundamental disagreement between the ‘anti’ side (anti-mask, anti-vaxx etc) and the ‘pro’ side. The reality is that different people can have vastly different risk tolerances. Some people are ok knowing they could die from a circulating respiratory illness and some simply are not. Some people believe vaccines are risky, oth…

A lot of people are ok with risks, until they’re bitten by them. There are many articles (I’ve seen two just in passing) where nurses talk about COVID patients going on a ventilator, and begging for the vaccine, only to be told it’s too late. I feel that most people that are taking risks with COVID (e.g. healthy people not getting vaccinated) either don’t have enough foresight to realize they actually don’t want to b…

> going on a ventilator, and begging

You read about it, I have heard from the witnesses. Some beg, some show fatalist. In fact,

> until they’re bitten

some do not quite realize that it is death involving slow asphyxia we are talking about... Days of drowning, not minutes.

> Risk assessment [...] is made worse by conflicting opinions and studies, and not being able to discern truth from fiction/sensationalism

Which is one of the biggest mess behind e.g. vaccine hesitancy, not to mention not convincing narratives about correct behaviour to prevent spreading.

Anyway, the communicational mess is a disaster, while this reference "fiction" is more problematic. It is not, at this level, something you discriminate easily. When Derek Lowe writes some find him credible, when Robert Malone speaks some find him credible - keys for discrimination are not easily at hand.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#396

Post by ethbr0 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:39 PM UTC

h3cate wrote: post #320

ethbr0 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point prior to saturation, hospitals and the public deserve to have unvaccinated COVID-19 patients (without a medical reason) turned away. We can do one of two things as communities: (1) Mandate vaccination for everyone, and provide everyone care (2) Allow everyone the freedom to remain unvaccinated, and limit care There's no other "normal" world where a highly communicable disease that causes a sufficient nu…

Do hospitals turn away people with the flu away if they are not vaccinated? Or is it only Covid that you would impose this rule for?

Fair question.

It looks like flu (influenza) hospitalizations run at about 0.15% of total population, per year.

SARS-CoV-2, at 1-5%? Although that might be vs confirmed cases (?), which would muddle the numbers.

But suffice to say substantially higher. So I think there's an argument to be made for this being a COVID only measure (and probably measles, etc too).

IMHO, people are entitled to freedom regarding their choice to vaccinate.

But if they choose to exercise their freedom in ways that limit my freedom (via resulting lockdowns, mandatory masking, banned social gatherings, preventing businesses from operating normally, etc.), then that doesn't feel very fair.

They're externalizing the consequences of their decisions onto me, and the rest of society.

So yeah, IMHO, their decisions: their bill to pay. With their life, if necessary.

(But I may be biased, as I have family working ICU, triaging unvaccinated coronavirus deniers who show up at the ER, begging to be saved, who are then sapping care from non-COVID patients...)

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#397

Post by freewilly1040 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

only_as_i_fall wrote: post #382

hcurtiss wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

Isn't the concern that children act as a massive spread vector such that breakthrough cases in adults may still overwhelm hospital systems? A couple months ago I would have maybe agreed, but the delta variant seems to really through a wrench into this line of thinking.

Serious breakthrough cases remain rare, delta has not changed this

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#398

Post by AndrewBissell » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

outside1234 wrote: post #229

h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

> once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated

The age groups to whom the vaccine is not yet available have no reason to fear Covid in 2021 any more than they did influenza in 2019.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#399

Post by PaulDavisThe1st » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

pasquinelli wrote: post #349

outside1234 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

being scared doesn't actually do anything for anyone, but the vaccinated do not have zero risk. if the virus is always kicking around, then there will always be vaccinated people dying of it.

tens of thousands of people in the USA die every year from influenza. This does not cause most of us to be "scared" of influenza. Why not? Because (1) the individual risk is vanishing low except for a relatively small high risk demographic (2) the public health aspects (i.e. overloaded health care systems) are generally easy to control because it is not extremely infectious.

(1) is and always has been true for COVID, but (2) remains unresolved at this point.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#400

Post by unityByFreedom » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:43 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #372

adrr wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

> It boggles my mind why there is pushback on mandating kids to wear masks in schools. It really shouldn’t if you’re an educated person who is following what scientific authorities are saying. The science here is still uncertain, but leaning towards masks for kids in schools not being worth it. See: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-maski... > At the end of May, the Centers for Disease Control an…

Long-term we should just adopt the practice of wearing one if you're symptomatic. It helps reduce spread. This is what Asia started doing after SARS. It's considered a courtesy, just as we consider it a courtesy to cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing.