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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#362
post #325
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

If they’re spending the whole day in a classroom together the effect of masks is going to be minimal.

That's simply not what the research has found.

Edit: Allow me to clarify - the research everyone is citing that says masking is effective in teachers and ineffective in students (the 37% number) predates both the delta variant and widespread infection in Southern states. Further, masking is understood etiologically as a prevention method and has been used successfully in other outbreaks and in other countries. Clinicians and policy makers as a rule work with incomplete data in an emerging situation, so unequivocally stating that masking kids in schools doesn't help is a very bad misrepresentation of both the data/research and the implications to policy.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Returning to normal is a terrible idea when COVID patients are overwhelming hospitals across the world. How can things be normal if our healthcare systems are nearing collapse? You might be willing to accept the risk of getting sick on your behalf, but by advocating a return to 'normal' before we have the capabilities to deal with this virus, you are advocating for putting even more stress on healthcare systems acros…

Are they really overwhelming hospitals? This keeps being repeated but most hospitals operate at about 80% capacity as-is. Places in Tennessee and Florida are currently, with COVID-19, operating at about 80%. [0] If we look at Israel, which has a very high vaccination rate, we see that they're supposedly running out of hospital space. [1] But the article linked doesn't say _anything about their actual numbers atm_ and…

Here is the Tennessee reporting. NO ICU beds.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2021/08/19/tenn...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#364
post #278

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

This is mostly irrelevant from my understanding. Of the few diseases that humanity has eradicated, one is found in wild animals. Animal resevoirs are simply not the problem.

In some Countries, one of the current common shouts is "vaccinate everything". It seems that in part, this is to relieve the hospitals, and in part, to reduce contagion as much as you can (the transmission rate in the vaccinated is lower or, in the exceptions emerged, resolves faster).

Now, let us suppose that cats may be vehicles. "Vaccinate everyone" and "cats do not matter" is inconsistent.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#365
post #344
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

What's delta like for under 16? In the US through May 2021, so it might not be a good representation for delta, here were the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths per 100k for various age groups: Age Inf Hosp Deaths 0-17 37k 287 0.5 18-49 44k 1100 25 50-64 32k 2600 85 65+ 22k 5200 1140 Unless the numbers for delta are way higher, that suggests that for under 17 getting your immunity by actually getting COVID is f…

How do you get half a death?!

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#366
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively: the unvaccinated are simply mistaken, and represent people's cousins and friends and children and grandparents, and their suffering and death would represent real loss and tragedy even to people who did everything right and got their shots. The desire to see this pandemic solely in terms of an individual moral play (on all sides of the debate!) is really strong on this website, and I think it's very un…

Your compassion is noble but the reality is that few share it. Very few vaccinated people are willing to accept restrictions on their liberty to help protect people who are unvaccinated by choice. Besides, the virus is not standing still. It is responding to selective pressure by becoming ever more transmissible. The more we try to control the virus by social distancing, the more the virus responds by becoming easier…

> The more we try to control the virus by social distancing, the more the virus responds by becoming easier to transmit.

That is a mischaracterization. I mean, it's true, but only in a specious sense that all organisms respond to changes in their environment (including vaccination techniques!). It's absolutely not an argument that pandemic mitigation strategies are universally doomed to failure!

> We cannot control this pandemic long term via social distancing

Again, this is wrong. And in fact it worked to control covid (not perfectly, but well, well under what you'd expect from the early exponential curves in places like Milan and New York) for almost a year before vaccines showed up.

You're making another common mistake here, and imagining that all arguments are about absolutes. In your mind, mask wearing either Works Perfectly or Must Be Abandoned.

In the real world, you wear masks when the pandemic is at a high infection rate and growing, (like now) because marginal improvements are important ("every little bit helps"), and not as much when it's low and shrinking (as it was in June, when I even went to a few restaurants unmasked!).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#367
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

The masks part is easy.. it has no effect.. We have been on and off masks here in Denmark, and it seems to have no effect on spread. Also mostly you get covid when not wearing one.. from a family member or a friend..

Thanks for the downvotes.. still wont make the masks work. Get vaccinated.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#368
post #344
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

What's delta like for under 16? In the US through May 2021, so it might not be a good representation for delta, here were the infections, hospitalizations, and deaths per 100k for various age groups: Age Inf Hosp Deaths 0-17 37k 287 0.5 18-49 44k 1100 25 50-64 32k 2600 85 65+ 22k 5200 1140 Unless the numbers for delta are way higher, that suggests that for under 17 getting your immunity by actually getting COVID is f…

Even with your numbers it puts a kid's chances of ending up hospitalized with covid at 1 in 128. Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group, but I'll still feel much better when my kid is vaccinated.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#369
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much "fuck the kids" as "fuck the teachers". Even if you believe that "kids don't get sick from COVID", you can't ignore that teachers do. And many of them are in high-risk groups -- older, with comorbidities. Most are vaccinated, but they're still taking a risk. Teachers are already smarting over the fact that (in the US) they're literally trained to take a bullet for their kids. So when you tell them to…

Isn't it easier and safer to vaccinate the teachers? There are less of them and they are of the age where the current vaccines are considered safe.

In NYC, teacher's unions refused to go back to work until a vaccine was available. Despite that, the vaccination rates were only 40-60% before the mandate that public sector workers be vaccinated.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#370
post #325
post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People aren’t scared up. Concern is around ICU usage and that elective surgery in hot areas are put on hold which include critical cancer removal surgeries. Also we have a large group of unvaccinated group which are under kids under 12. With life going back to normal, the standard diseases are back like RSV, paraflu and others. Get two at the same time and it’s a emergency room visit. Get 3 at the same time and it’s…

If they’re spending the whole day in a classroom together the effect of masks is going to be minimal.

Is that from that one Armchair U study?
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