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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#251

Post by h3cate »

greyivy wrote: post #239
outside1234 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

Not the immunocompromised or those who are legitimately unable to get vaccinated? Not a very nuanced take.

What would you have us do instead? The elderly are severely at risk from the flu but we don't have winter lockdowns for them?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#252

Post by KaiserPro »

bingohbangoh wrote: post #179
001spartan wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Returning to normal is a terrible idea when COVID patients are overwhelming hospitals across the world. How can things be normal if our healthcare systems are nearing collapse? You might be willing to accept the risk of getting sick on your behalf, but by advocating a return to 'normal' before we have the capabilities to deal with this virus, you are advocating for putting even more stress on healthcare systems acros…

Are they really overwhelming hospitals? This keeps being repeated but most hospitals operate at about 80% capacity as-is. Places in Tennessee and Florida are currently, with COVID-19, operating at about 80%. [0] If we look at Israel, which has a very high vaccination rate, we see that they're supposedly running out of hospital space. [1] But the article linked doesn't say _anything about their actual numbers atm_ and…

India: yes.

The UK: in local areas, patients had to be diverted sometimes hundreds of miles to a hospital with space. all non emergency hospital care was stopped, and some emergency routine care was delayed.

Belgium was overwhelmed.

The issue is this, we can't just not admit the over 60s. even if we did, that would only free up 50% capacity (ie you could go one more cycle of exponential growth, doubling every n weeks/days)[source https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=...]

filling hospitals means that the resources used to treat both sudden hospitalizations and long term are diverted. so car accident/drinking/heavy sports/DIY injuries have worse outcomes, and cancer outcomes drop off a cliff.

if the UK manages to keep the total number of patients in hospital with covid to less than 7-10k that would be a brilliant outcome for winter. we are currently at ~6k, and its still summer.

The issue is there are not enough trained doctors and nurses. They take at least 8 years to train. that's the main constraint. Suitable beds can be made up in a number of weeks (see china and the "nightinggale hospitals") but if there is no staff, they are pointless

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#253

Post by h3cate »

tomp wrote: post #248
outside1234 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

I wish this was true. Most Europe is still under various lockdown restrictions, even though in a lot of countries, there's been enough vaccine for everyone (who wanted) to get vaccinated by now.

This.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#254

Post by colmvp »

h3cate wrote: post #221
rossdavidh wrote: post #36

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

I'm not scared of Covid-19, I'm mostly concerned that as the numbers continue to rise and the hospitals/ICUs around me get more Covid-19 cases, it'll force the government to have to issue harsher measures to prevent the system from bursting at the seams because hospitals don't have limitless resources. People who don't want strict measures can't hand-wave that potential reality away.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#255

Post by crubier »

lokedhs wrote: post #133
HarryHirsch wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel has close to full vaccination, yet cases are going up because immunity is falling again and there are new variants. It's understandable why the restrictions are back again.

Israel is at 68%. I wouldn't call that close to full. Portugal is at 82%, and I wouldn't even call that full.

Portugal is at 66%

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#256

Post by ansible »

nradov wrote: post #214
lamontcg wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.

The CDC estimates that the survival rate for the 18-49 age bracket (which accounts for most parents of young children) is 99.94%. And that's since the start of the pandemic without vaccination. For vaccinated parents now the survival rate is virtually 100%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

So, yeah, I guess the grandparents and older aunts / uncles they may be living with are fucked. But who cares about them?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#257

Post by basisword »

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

The UK dropped all restrictions with the exception of some travel related restrictions (to prevent the import of variants that could breakthrough the vaccine).

Any restrictions you see in the UK are implemented by businesses/local government (e.g. masks on the tube, or in some shops).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#258

Post by KaiserPro »

codehawke wrote: post #29
xyzzy21 wrote: post #4

Yes. And it will evolve into a fairly benign endemic virus just like its cousin: the common cold coronavirus.

What if it evolves into SARS?

SARS is simpler because people become sicker quicker and don't spread it about anywhere near as much.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#260

Post by fidesomnes »

rootusrootus wrote: post #244
outside1234 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

I agree. Once my kids can get jabbed, I will cease giving covid much thought. I don't want to get a breakthrough case, even if it's not dangerous, because I loathe being ill, but getting sick periodically is an unfortunate fact of life.

the vaccinated still spread it. side effects of the vaccine are increasing at an alarming rate. it's a bioweapon and you would be wise to challenge your assumptions.
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