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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#241

Post by cogman10 »

bingohbangoh wrote: post #179
001spartan wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Returning to normal is a terrible idea when COVID patients are overwhelming hospitals across the world. How can things be normal if our healthcare systems are nearing collapse? You might be willing to accept the risk of getting sick on your behalf, but by advocating a return to 'normal' before we have the capabilities to deal with this virus, you are advocating for putting even more stress on healthcare systems acros…

Are they really overwhelming hospitals? This keeps being repeated but most hospitals operate at about 80% capacity as-is. Places in Tennessee and Florida are currently, with COVID-19, operating at about 80%. [0] If we look at Israel, which has a very high vaccination rate, we see that they're supposedly running out of hospital space. [1] But the article linked doesn't say _anything about their actual numbers atm_ and…

So, the anecdotal evidence would be to visit /r/medicine and /r/nursing on reddit.

It may not be universal, but it certainly appears to be the case that many hospitals are being pushed over the limit due to covid patients.

Part of the issue, though, appears to be the fact that hospital admins are unwilling to raise salaries on essential employees like nurses.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#242

Post by xx511134bz »

SamBam wrote: post #45
cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

We can test your model of reality. When X amount of youngsters get vaccinated, will we go back to normal? Ye or ne? My mental model says ne.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#243

Post by Pyramus »

peteradio wrote: post #135
Pyramus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains. (Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

It seems like lethality can become a first order evolutionary driver though by turning our focus on it and quickly smothering any "hot" virus but allowing "warm" virus to spread. Can't humans play a part in the evolutionary process of the virus?

In theory yes - and that's what's happening in many countries. E.g. in Germany there is a differentiation between high risk areas and virus variant areas, with different testing and quarantine protocols etc.

However on a global scale only some countries are sequencing some of the time, and only in humans (with ad-hoc exceptions)! Which is simply not enough.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#244

Post by rootusrootus »

outside1234 wrote: post #229
h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

I agree. Once my kids can get jabbed, I will cease giving covid much thought. I don't want to get a breakthrough case, even if it's not dangerous, because I loathe being ill, but getting sick periodically is an unfortunate fact of life.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#245

Post by elcomet »

qwerty456127 wrote: post #95
SamBam wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

I'm almost sure 100% vaccination rate with the vaccines currently available won't change much. I hope I'm wrong. But there already are cases apparently confirming this. IMHO we should just return to normal, consider this a new kind of flu and deal with the fact it's more deadly. I always knew there is a chance a flu can kill me one day. I'm Ok with the fact the chance is higher now. My personal (apparently risky, I d…

> I'm almost sure 100% vaccination rate with the vaccines currently available won't change much.

How can you be almost sure ? Are you an immunologist or a contagious disease expert ? Do you have data to back this up ?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#246

Post by mwint »

greyivy wrote: post #239
outside1234 wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

Not the immunocompromised or those who are legitimately unable to get vaccinated? Not a very nuanced take.

What can we do for those people, assuming forever-lockdowns aren’t an option?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#247

Post by h3cate »

rossdavidh wrote: post #238
h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

I think the people who don't like that opinion, although very, very loud online, are not actually in the majority. But, it sure sounds like it online though.

I hope that's the case. The question becomes though, what influences politicians in their policy making the most?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#248

Post by tomp »

outside1234 wrote: post #229
h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

I don't think that's unpopular. More precisely, once the vaccine is available to all age groups, the only people that need to be scared of it are the unvaccinated. And they will have had every opportunity to get vaccinated, so we shouldn't optimize for them.

I wish this was true. Most Europe is still under various lockdown restrictions, even though in a lot of countries, there's been enough vaccine for everyone (who wanted) to get vaccinated by now.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#250

Post by lp0_on_fire »

gunshai wrote: post #228
h3cate wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unpopular opinion but as countries get majority vaccinated they have to learn to not be as scared of it.

Why is this unpopular.

Because there is a non-insignificant portion of the population that is thriving off corona hysteria.
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