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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#181

Post by hcurtiss »

lamontcg wrote: post #162
hcurtiss wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.

The odds are overwhelmingly high they won’t with COVID either. Let’s not forget that the survival rate in all populations is well north of 90%. Parent age populations closer to 99%. Even higher if the parents are vaccinated.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#182

Post by geofft »

josephcsible wrote: post #174
jrockway wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe "mask requirements" are a sign of society advancing? There was a time in human history when we didn't bathe regularly, or brush our teeth, or have sewage removal systems in cities, etc. Maybe the next step is "you know, breathing in particles that came from the other 600 people in this railcar is not so great". I certainly don't see a reason to go maskless on public transportation in the future. And, as supply…

You're saying society should keep wearing masks everywhere literally forever? That's so insane I can't tell whether you're even serious.

Is there a particular reason you think that people shouldn't keep wearing masks everywhere literally forever, or is it just that it hurts your feelings?

Barely a century ago, it wasn't common for doctors to wash their hands, because it hurt doctors' feelings. Dr. Charles Meigs, an obstetrician, said, "Doctors are gentlemen and a gentleman's hands are clean."

But, of course, factually they weren't clean, factually they were full of germs, and factually Dr. Meigs was killing several of the people he operated on through his unclean hands. There was factual data that infant mortality dropped significantly in clinics where doctors were washing their hands.

But the response to hand-washing was much like yours. "You're saying society should keep washing hands everywhere literally forever? That's so insane I can't tell whether you're even serious." And in fact they sent the doctor who suggested hand-washing to an insane asylum, where he died.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contemporary_reaction_to_Ignaz...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#183

Post by lamontcg »

Pyramus wrote: post #82
nradov wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that the virus will necessarily evolve to become benign, but rather that most people will get infected when they're young and build up natural immunity which protects them later in life. This is what already happens with the other 4 endemic common cold coronaviruses. Each of them probably killed a lot of people when they first emerged. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains. (Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

Mutations will optimize for transmission, but once there's a high level of immunity against this strain (all the variants are still one strain) then the virus will face the pressure to mutate to achieve actual immune escape. There's 20 epitopes on the spike that need to change, and some of those should come at a cost to fitness, and eventually it should face a choice between trying to increase its transmissibility to find immunologically naive humans (where delta variant is probably reaching its limit) and to better transmit in recovered/vaccinated individuals due to immune escape.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#184

Post by jtbayly »

tharne wrote: post #176
SamBam wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

> Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). This fact really bothers me. I feel like once adults got vaccinated we all spiked the football and said "F--k the kids, I got mine".

The kids aren't in danger.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#185

Post by shakna »

hcurtiss wrote: post #130
firecall wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is outdated information. Delta strain is worse - more dangerous for kids and those under 30.

More dangerous than what? Even if it were 200% more lethal, 2x a very small number is still a very small number.

Whilst I don't have the figures to specifically source, yesterday's daily pressing briefing for my area had the health minister saying that delta was 100x more lethal than the flu in children, or 1000%.

That is not a very small number.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#186

Post by uCantCauseUCant »

rossdavidh wrote: post #36

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it. Of dis…

Thats quite a nice way of putting it, that covid will lower the average life expectancy even of a vaccinated person by 20 years. Cause repeated tissue damage to lungs, heart and neural pathway tissue, accumulates and those 20 today will sound all like darth vadder in there sixties.

I still think this is a problem, but hey, if your are already that old and on your way out, who cares. Same attitude as with global warming..

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#187

Post by greedo »

hcurtiss wrote: post #156
001spartan wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Returning to normal is a terrible idea when COVID patients are overwhelming hospitals across the world. How can things be normal if our healthcare systems are nearing collapse? You might be willing to accept the risk of getting sick on your behalf, but by advocating a return to 'normal' before we have the capabilities to deal with this virus, you are advocating for putting even more stress on healthcare systems acros…

It seems one option is to increase hospital capacity. There should be ways to do this without needing more RNs and MDs.

Hmm, who provides care at a hospital? Wow, RNs and MDs. Do you expect a janitor to intubate you? Increasing hospital capacity is hard, expensive and takes time.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#188

Post by treesknees »

hcurtiss wrote: post #156
001spartan wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Returning to normal is a terrible idea when COVID patients are overwhelming hospitals across the world. How can things be normal if our healthcare systems are nearing collapse? You might be willing to accept the risk of getting sick on your behalf, but by advocating a return to 'normal' before we have the capabilities to deal with this virus, you are advocating for putting even more stress on healthcare systems acros…

It seems one option is to increase hospital capacity. There should be ways to do this without needing more RNs and MDs.

This is a pretty ignorant suggestion. It's like saying that my company should dramatically increase its software output without hiring software engineers. These are people, not robots. You must hire more skilled labor if you wish to expand the capacity which requires that labor.

If you're saying we should fill that labor requirement with low-skill medical technicians, you're misunderstanding the needs of the hospital. If you are ending up in the ER or ICU with covid, or any other cause, you are beyond the help of an at-home med tech, which is why you're at the hospital in the first place.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#189

Post by Filligree »

jtbayly wrote: post #184
tharne wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). This fact really bothers me. I feel like once adults got vaccinated we all spiked the football and said "F--k the kids, I got mine".

The kids aren't in danger.

Say that to my cousin's niece.

Wait. You can't anymore.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#190

Post by cfn »

lamontcg wrote: post #162
hcurtiss wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

If they fall down in the playground they don't carry that injury home and kill one of their parents with it.

But their parents are (or can be) vaccinated, thus imune to the disease.
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