The Coronavirus Is Here Forever • Hacker News Board

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#31

Post by api » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:18 PM UTC

xyzzy21 wrote: post #4

Yes. And it will evolve into a fairly benign endemic virus just like its cousin: the common cold coronavirus.

The virus will evolve so as to make more copies of the virus. This can go more than one way.

The viral evolutionary definition of benign is "does not kill the host or harm the host in such a way as to greatly reduce its ability to spread the virus."

Making the host brutally ill and totally non-functional for weeks is generally fine. Causing harm to the host that reduces its vitality or life span in the long term is fine. Polio met these criteria. It did not usually kill its host.

Benign is only one evolutionary path though. Another evolutionary path for a virus is to boost the R factor so high that it can burn through its hosts and still find more hosts, especially if there are say... seven to eight billion hosts. Smallpox was more like this. A more contagious form of Ebola could be like this.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#32

Post by lazyjones » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:18 PM UTC

Bostonian wrote: post #7

JackPoach wrote: post #2

Though coronavirus is very different in many respects, it's worthwhile (especially if you are older like me) to remember the history of AIDS. We've learned to live with it and limit its spread very effectively in the western world.

AIDS never spread broadly among heterosexuals who did not share needles or have partners who are bisexual or shared needles. Everyone is at risk for covid, like the flu.

Plenty of people got it from blood transfers, among other things.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#33

Post by ianai » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:18 PM UTC

Wow, no mention of long covid in the entire article. People are making a lot of assumptions about a disease with billions of people naive to it (the unvaccinated) and selective pressure from the vaccinated. I think we could all benefit from some humility.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#34

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:19 PM UTC

Bostonian wrote: post #7

JackPoach wrote: post #2

Though coronavirus is very different in many respects, it's worthwhile (especially if you are older like me) to remember the history of AIDS. We've learned to live with it and limit its spread very effectively in the western world.

AIDS never spread broadly among heterosexuals who did not share needles or have partners who are bisexual or shared needles. Everyone is at risk for covid, like the flu.

[deleted]

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#35

Post by nradov » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:19 PM UTC

xyzzy21 wrote: post #4

Yes. And it will evolve into a fairly benign endemic virus just like its cousin: the common cold coronavirus.

It's not that the virus will necessarily evolve to become benign, but rather that most people will get infected when they're young and build up natural immunity which protects them later in life. This is what already happens with the other 4 endemic common cold coronaviruses. Each of them probably killed a lot of people when they first emerged.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#36

Post by rossdavidh » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

Good article, but doesn't mention the other reason that covid-19 is never going completely away: animal reservoirs. We know that dogs, cats, hamsters, guinea pigs, mink, white-tailed deer, a gorilla, and a tiger have been found to have been infected with covid-19. It is implausible that it will ever cease to have an animal reservoir, especially given the finding in Canada of 30% of white-tailed deer having it.

Of diseases that get as widespread as this, with animal reservoirs, I don't believe there is any case of eliminating it. But, like vaccines can teach the immune system how to respond more intelligently (and less self-destructively) to covid-19, hopefully society can learn to respond more intelligently, and less self-destructively, to the fact that it's always in circulation.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#37

Post by alphager » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:20 PM UTC

> close to full vaccination, like the UK.

Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#38

Post by cpr » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Because it's all about control, not about a virus with a 99.8% survival rate.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#39

Post by nly » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #20

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

In the case of the U.K., it's the population (not the government) that is holding things back. My impression is that Boris Johnson is opening things up as fast as he thinks he can get away with, without an enormous backlash that gets him removed from office. Unlike, say, France where the positions of government and popular backlash are reversed.

Boris isn't in danger. He got what he always wanted - to be a wartime PM

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#40

Post by nickthemagicman » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #6

JackPoach wrote: post #2

Though coronavirus is very different in many respects, it's worthwhile (especially if you are older like me) to remember the history of AIDS. We've learned to live with it and limit its spread very effectively in the western world.

Yeah, we learned to limit its spread, but with "masks" (condoms).

Condoms have a 99.9% effectiveness.

Studies have shown that face mask policies have around a 1% effectiveness.