The Coronavirus Is Here Forever • Hacker News Board

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#131

Post by staticassertion » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

The UK seems to have a 62% full vaccination rate with 71% having at least one dose[0]. That sounds really low to me. "Close to full vaccination" to me would imply close to 100% or, reading "full" as "reaching herd immunity" I'd think 70-80% fully vaccinated - still a very long way to go.

I hear you that we will eventually reach a point where we've hit the new normal. It's just going to be whether that point is reached because we've given up (due to people refusing to vaccinate) or because we've managed to vaccinate enough. I think many people aren't ready to give up. Personally, the restrictions are quite meaningless to me in the US, but I can imagine that that's just because I get to work from home and all that.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/united-kingdo...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#132

Post by User23 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

What baffles me is the total failure to highlight one of the best ways to mitigate the risk of severe covid complications: don’t be obese[1]. It’s also a good life choice for those who also prefer not to die of non-covid conditions.

Edit: And it increases your risk for long covid[2].

[1] https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/latest-evidence-on...

[2] https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210608/obesity-increases-r...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#133

Post by lokedhs » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #64

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Israel has close to full vaccination, yet cases are going up because immunity is falling again and there are new variants. It's understandable why the restrictions are back again.

Israel is at 68%. I wouldn't call that close to full. Portugal is at 82%, and I wouldn't even call that full.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#134

Post by lotsofpulp » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

firecall wrote: post #103

hcurtiss wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

This is outdated information. Delta strain is worse - more dangerous for kids and those under 30.

Source?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#135

Post by peteradio » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

Pyramus wrote: post #82

nradov wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that the virus will necessarily evolve to become benign, but rather that most people will get infected when they're young and build up natural immunity which protects them later in life. This is what already happens with the other 4 endemic common cold coronaviruses. Each of them probably killed a lot of people when they first emerged. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains. (Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

It seems like lethality can become a first order evolutionary driver though by turning our focus on it and quickly smothering any "hot" virus but allowing "warm" virus to spread. Can't humans play a part in the evolutionary process of the virus?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#136

Post by CountDrewku » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #119

colordrops wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

Early this year it looked as if the virus was on the way out in Israel until they started opening up schools again. The risk to children is small, but it's a communicable disease - school is how it spreads between households. When doing risk assessments I wish people started looking beyond their own immediate circle. Then again, Pharao let the Children of Israel go only after his own firstborn son died.

Asymptomatic spread of the virus is negligible from everything I've read. Children that don't show symptoms aren't a threat. Additionally, there's really no evidence that schools are spreading the virus more.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-r...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#137

Post by Thiez » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:50 PM UTC

brown9-2 wrote: post #89

colordrops wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

If you want to talk about “real risk” then I think it’s only fair to ask you to define what that acceptable risk level is.

Almost 4000 children die each year from drowning in the USA, with double that having a non-fatal drowning [0]. Note that non-fatal drownings can cause long-term health problems. They haven't banned pools yet, so it follows that, as a country, the USA considers 4000 dead children an acceptable risk of having open water, such as rivers, ponds, and pools. And bath tubs, I suppose.

Now with that number in mind, how many children are expected to die if all of them were to be infected with covid-19? I found it hard to find some numbers about this, in my country all corona-deaths of people aged 49 or less are grouped together these days because there are so few that they could be traced to individuals otherwise.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/drowning/facts/index.html

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#138

Post by somewhatbetter » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:50 PM UTC

Thanks to god for covid i don't have to return to the office. It is a small price the humanity have to pay for that, so it is ok.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#139

Post by redis_mlc » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:51 PM UTC

cmsefton wrote: post #14

Bostonian wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AIDS never spread broadly among heterosexuals who did not share needles or have partners who are bisexual or shared needles. Everyone is at risk for covid, like the flu.

This certainly was not the experience of other countries such as South Africa where the majority of transfer (roughly 80%) was via heterosexual transfer.

I'll do a PSA here for younger people since I've followed AIDS since the beginning of news reports in the 1980s:

- In Africa, men using hookers is a common status thing. So heterosexual men get it from hookers and take it home to their wives.

- If you look at the links in this thread, you can see that black Americans are around 5x more likely to get HIV than other US groups. Mostly this is an aversion to condoms for several cultural reasons.

- This may sound surprising to men who are well-read, but American women (and others) often don't use or demand condoms. You'd be amazed at how little they're actually used. I expect an epidemic of infertility and STDs as women's partner count for all groups climbs above 100 each (thanks, Tindr.)

If you're in the US and need larger condoms, most chains carry the brand-name "Magnum."

The California Family court is awarding $2,000+/month to baby mamas from engineers, so wrap it up, guys.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#140

Post by andyjohnson0 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #30

celticninja wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What restrictions do you mean? I am in the UK and facing no restrictions in daily life.

No restriction? You will have a nasty surprise if you return from a red list country. Plus mandatory covid tests before and after returning to the UK. Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app. Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

> Plus mandatory face masks in public transports.

Not true. There is no national requirement to wear a mask on public transport. London Underground and the Manchester Metro have used mayoral powers to require mask wearing - with variable compliance. Elsewhere its down to individual choice.

> Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app.

Not true. The app gives a recommendation. Only the NHS test and trace service can legally require you to self isolate. And for that you need to test positive (pcr) and not be fully vaccinated.