Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 1001 posts

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#81

Post by luffapi »

hcurtiss wrote: post #72
luffapi wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are risks to all of us when we let millions of children act as a breeding and mutation substrate for the virus. I would think that would be blinding obvious to anyone with even a basic grasp of biology. It’s also completely unknown what the long term effects of the virus are. Edit: Disappointed but not surprised by the amount of anti-science on this site. I feel like a lot of people have let politics destroy th…

Given global vaccination rates, it will have abundant and plentiful opportunities for breeding and mutation forever. There is no vaccinating the entire globe for coronavirus. Certainly not in our lifetimes. And not given the declining effectiveness of the vaccines.

I agree that the whole globe will not be vaccinated and that will continue to be a problem. That doesn’t negate what I said though, unvaccinated children are a huge part of that problem.

> And not given the low effectiveness of the vaccines.

I have no idea what this means. It sounds like you’re under false impressions. The vaccines are quite effective.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#82

Post by Pyramus »

nradov wrote: post #35
xyzzy21 wrote: post #4

Yes. And it will evolve into a fairly benign endemic virus just like its cousin: the common cold coronavirus.

It's not that the virus will necessarily evolve to become benign, but rather that most people will get infected when they're young and build up natural immunity which protects them later in life. This is what already happens with the other 4 endemic common cold coronaviruses. Each of them probably killed a lot of people when they first emerged. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

This is the correct answer and should be highlighted more. The virus doesn't evolve to become benign, it's the hosts that will evolve. In addition to the endemic coronaviruses that you stated, another example are endemic/seasonal influenza strains vs. new strains.

(Yes the virus will evolve but in general mutations will optimise for transmission and be indifferent to lethality.)

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#83

Post by cm2187 »

hutzlibu wrote: post #71
cm2187 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These herd immunity thresholds assumed that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, but it appears that they do. Vaccines seem to be very efficient at preventing complications, which is great and good enough to neutralise this virus. But they don't seem to have made a dent into this summer's cases numbers. It doesn't look like vaccines will prevent the virus from circulating. Hospitalisation rates have been pret…

"It doesn't look like vaccines will prevent the virus from circulating." Do you have some numbers? As far as I know, it indeed supresses the virus from circulating, it just doesn't stop it completely. Here in my area, which started early with broad vaccinations - the numbers are way down.

The size of the peak cases in countries that have high vaccination rate, vs previous peaks before vaccination.

UK for instance: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#84

Post by rajamaka »

laputan_machine wrote: post #62
colordrops wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

It's not about children getting it and being ill, it's about children getting it and spreading it. This is the concept behind 'herd immunity'. If we can cut the chain, we mitigate older and people with weakened immune systems from getting it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Older people can get vaccinated

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#85

Post by jcrben »

colordrops wrote: post #50
alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

Nearly 300 hospitalized per day, nearly 500 dead so far. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/07/health/children-covid-19-prot...

Unknown how many will long-term health effects.

Even seemingly innocuous viruses like Epstein-Barr are tied to various health problems later in life. Why should we knowingly expose an entire generation to a little understood virus?

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#86

Post by ceejayoz »

cm2187 wrote: post #75
laputan_machine wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about children getting it and being ill, it's about children getting it and spreading it. This is the concept behind 'herd immunity'. If we can cut the chain, we mitigate older and people with weakened immune systems from getting it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

But if vaccinated people are also spreading it, I don't get the point of waiting for kids to be vaccinated. The population at risk being vaccinated was the big deal, but that's done now (apart from those who refuse to be vaccinated, but then it is their problem).

> Bit if vaccinated people are also spreading it

They are less likely to be infected, and it looks like they have a shorter infectious period.

Herd immunity may be achievable with this in mind, but no one really knows right now. New variants may change the calculus too.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#87

Post by hutzlibu »

rpadovani wrote: post #52
cm2187 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No restriction? You will have a nasty surprise if you return from a red list country. Plus mandatory covid tests before and after returning to the UK. Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app. Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

> Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. I really hope this will stay forever, or at least until people don't learn to stay home when they get a cold

"or at least until people don't learn to stay home when they get a cold "

Not everyone can afford that, with a fear of losing their jobs.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#88

Post by Expirat »

laputan_machine wrote: post #62
colordrops wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

It's not about children getting it and being ill, it's about children getting it and spreading it. This is the concept behind 'herd immunity'. If we can cut the chain, we mitigate older and people with weakened immune systems from getting it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

> It's not about children getting it and being ill, it's about children getting it and spreading it.

Vaccinated people can still get ill and spread it so why do you keep pushing vaccines to children who have no risk whatsoever if the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated and are safe??

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#89

Post by brown9-2 »

colordrops wrote: post #50
alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

If you want to talk about “real risk” then I think it’s only fair to ask you to define what that acceptable risk level is.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#90

Post by odessacubbage »

rpadovani wrote: post #52
cm2187 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No restriction? You will have a nasty surprise if you return from a red list country. Plus mandatory covid tests before and after returning to the UK. Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app. Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

> Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. I really hope this will stay forever, or at least until people don't learn to stay home when they get a cold

last time i tried to stay home [from a public facing food service position] due to the flu i was fired over Christmas. until you change the culture around working through illness and the punitive nature of sick days, especially for those with children, people are not gonna stay home if they think they can tough it out.
Post reply on HN