The Coronavirus Is Here Forever • Hacker News Board

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#61

Post by exDM69 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:26 PM UTC

alecst wrote: post #12

xyzzy21 wrote: post #4

Yes. And it will evolve into a fairly benign endemic virus just like its cousin: the common cold coronavirus.

I downvoted for an opinion-based answer. Yea generally viruses evolve to be less deadly and more infectious, that’s the trend (but certainly not a law), but the important thing is the time scale. Plus there are endemic viruses that are not benign. So this comment came across as a bit too confident. Feel free to expand on it.

With regards this claim, the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) addresses it in their recent paper about future evolutionary scenarios [0].

Scenario Four: SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreased virulence

Likelihood: Unlikely in the short term, realistic possibility in the long term.

Which makes sense as most transmission occurs in the presymptomatic phase, there's no selection pressure to evolve to be less deadly.

[0] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#62

Post by laputan_machine » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:27 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #50

alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

It's not about children getting it and being ill, it's about children getting it and spreading it. This is the concept behind 'herd immunity'. If we can cut the chain, we mitigate older and people with weakened immune systems from getting it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#63

Post by cm2187 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:27 PM UTC

SamBam wrote: post #45

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid. Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year. And that's w…

These herd immunity thresholds assumed that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, but it appears that they do. Vaccines seem to be very efficient at preventing complications, which is great and good enough to neutralise this virus. But they don't seem to have made a dent into this summer's cases numbers. It doesn't look like vaccines will prevent the virus from circulating.

Hospitalisation rates have been pretty much flat vs previous waves (there was no wave last summer).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#64

Post by HarryHirsch » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:27 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Israel has close to full vaccination, yet cases are going up because immunity is falling again and there are new variants. It's understandable why the restrictions are back again.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#65

Post by PartiallyTyped » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #23

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

What restrictions do you mean? I am in the UK and facing no restrictions in daily life.

Same for Denmark. We are at 85% first dose and 78% second dose for the 5.1m people a vaccine was offered, so we are at 75% of the population with at least one dose [1]. Everything is open, there is a suggestion to wear masks in metro, no idea about buses or trains.

[1] https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epide...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#66

Post by hcurtiss » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

Except that in kids COVID is about as lethal as the ordinary flu. It’s more transmissible, but the number of kids we’ve seen suffer serious consequences across the US has been very, very low. We don’t make kids wear helmets everywhere they go, though it would be decidedly more efficacious from a safety perspective. It seems to me some relativity is in order.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#67

Post by ianai » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

ocdtrekkie wrote: post #44

ianai wrote: post #33

Wow, no mention of long covid in the entire article. People are making a lot of assumptions about a disease with billions of people naive to it (the unvaccinated) and selective pressure from the vaccinated. I think we could all benefit from some humility.

> "“A big question mark there is long COVID,” says Yonatan Grad, an immunologist and infectious-disease researcher at Harvard. There are still no data to prove how well the vaccines prevent long COVID, but experts generally agree that a vaccinated immune system is better prepared to fight off the virus without doing collateral damage."

I did miss that. I still think humility and caution are warranted. The preliminary numbers for long covid in breakthrough infections were similar to the unvaccinated in the Israel report, for instance.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#68

Post by FridayoLeary » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:29 PM UTC

luffapi wrote: post #58

colordrops wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.

There are risks to all of us when we let millions of children act as a breeding and mutation substrate for the virus. I would think that would be blinding obvious to anyone with even a basic grasp of biology. It’s also completely unknown what the long term effects of the virus are. Edit: Disappointed but not surprised by the amount of anti-science on this site. I feel like a lot of people have let politics destroy th…

>It’s also completely unknown what the long term effects of the virus are.

Long term beyond a year and a half? I think it's safe to assume there is very little.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#69

Post by gruez » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #40

js8 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, we learned to limit its spread, but with "masks" (condoms).

Condoms have a 99.9% effectiveness. Studies have shown that face mask policies have around a 1% effectiveness.

That's comparing apples and oranges because you're comparing the effectiveness of a particular treatment (condoms) with the effectiveness of a particular policy (mask mandates).

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#70

Post by FridayoLeary » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #30

celticninja wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What restrictions do you mean? I am in the UK and facing no restrictions in daily life.

No restriction? You will have a nasty surprise if you return from a red list country. Plus mandatory covid tests before and after returning to the UK. Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app. Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

Enforcement is a total joke though.