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The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#41

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

argvargc wrote: post #28
HarryHirsch wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know? HIV hasn't evolved to be any less deadly in the 40 years it has been around. Instead, there's most excellent treatment available and people have changed their behaviour.

And despite killing ten times as many people as COVID, these changes were achieved without destroying small businesses and jobs, plunging millions into poverty (and likely later starvation), gross human rights violations and police brutality, and reintroduction of segregation into previously free democratic societies. (Just like with all other communicable diseases of modern times.) Go us.

> And despite killing ten times as many people as COVID

That's an INCREDIBLY disingenuous comparison considering that COVID-19 has been with us for less than two years.

And, though I object to your characterization of said measures, extreme measures weren't taken because you couldn't catch it just via proximity. Also important to point out one big similarity - denial of both was used to dehumanize swathes of the population who were especially vulnerable.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#42

Post by mrfox321 »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #9
xyzzy21 wrote: post #4

Yes. And it will evolve into a fairly benign endemic virus just like its cousin: the common cold coronavirus.

How do you know? HIV hasn't evolved to be any less deadly in the 40 years it has been around. Instead, there's most excellent treatment available and people have changed their behaviour.

HIV has evolved to be less deadly:

https://www.pnas.org/content/111/50/E5393

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#43

Post by luffapi »

cm2187 wrote: post #30
celticninja wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What restrictions do you mean? I am in the UK and facing no restrictions in daily life.

No restriction? You will have a nasty surprise if you return from a red list country. Plus mandatory covid tests before and after returning to the UK. Plus mandatory face masks in public transports. Plus mandatory self-quarantine if you are pinged by the NHS app. Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

> Many companies have not returned to the office. We are not back to normal.

This is the new normal (thankfully). Government regulations or not, management will not be able to force people back in the office. Office culture was a quirk of the 20th century. A halfway house between the assembly line and the internet. Covid just forced its inevitable collapse.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#44

Post by ocdtrekkie »

ianai wrote: post #33

Wow, no mention of long covid in the entire article. People are making a lot of assumptions about a disease with billions of people naive to it (the unvaccinated) and selective pressure from the vaccinated. I think we could all benefit from some humility.

> "“A big question mark there is long COVID,” says Yonatan Grad, an immunologist and infectious-disease researcher at Harvard. There are still no data to prove how well the vaccines prevent long COVID, but experts generally agree that a vaccinated immune system is better prepared to fight off the virus without doing collateral damage."

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#45

Post by SamBam »

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Since no one under 16 has been vaccinated yet, about 70% of the population is vaccinated (44M out of 67M). That might be barely enough for herd immunity for some diseases, but the case numbers in the UK are still very high and trending back upward, showing that this isn't enough for herd immunity for Covid.

Hospitalization rates are also back up to significantly higher than they were this time last year.

And that's with the restrictions you're referring to. So, no, I don't think that it would make sense for the UK to just go right back to normal just yet, at least until the vaccinations rates are high enough that you see the case rate go back down and stay down.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#46

Post by smallerfish »

JackPoach wrote: post #2

Though coronavirus is very different in many respects, it's worthwhile (especially if you are older like me) to remember the history of AIDS. We've learned to live with it and limit its spread very effectively in the western world.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-and-new-cases-of-h...

HIV deaths were 348k in 1990 (which is the earliest year I found stats for on a quick googling). Around 4m people died from covid over the past year. We definitely would not want covid's mortality trajectory to follow HIV's, which peaked at 1.95 million, a 5.5x multiple of 1990's figure.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#47

Post by dota_fanatic »

cm2187 wrote: post #16

That's why I don't really understand why there are still covid restrictions in countries that are close to full vaccination, like the UK. There isn't really a next step after having vaccinated the population, it is "steady state". So do they want us to have these restrictions (countries you can't travel to, endless testing, mask requirements) forever?

Aren't the vaccines still not available for those under 12? And they're emergency use only in many of those countries? Not sure how you can say any country, even Israel, is "close to full vaccination". 28% of their population is 14 and under.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel#Age_str...

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#48

Post by HarryHirsch »

oblio wrote: post #10
HarryHirsch wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know? HIV hasn't evolved to be any less deadly in the 40 years it has been around. Instead, there's most excellent treatment available and people have changed their behaviour.

We'll probably do a bunch of these. Vaccines, treatment for the worst symptoms and potentially treatment against the virus itself. I think we're working on all these fronts. I wonder how much we'll change/have to change our behavior long term, for example 10 years from now. I'd imagine not much.

I wonder how much we'll change/have to change our behavior long term, for example 10 years from now. I'd imagine not much.

I'd say it's the exact opposite. It's known that immunity against coronaviruses isn't long-lasting (look at the Rev Jackson and his wife, both of whom were vaccinated early this year and are now in hospital) and that antiviral treatment needs to start early (does everyone really want to do a PCR test every other day so they can start antibody treatment early like Governor Abbot?)

We'll have to start wearing masks indoor and stop being in crowded rooms until the virus is eradicated. Right now, with the population half vaccinated, we are setting ourselves up for a re-run of Marek's disease, this time in people.

Re: The Coronavirus Is Here Forever

#50

Post by colordrops »

alphager wrote: post #37

> close to full vaccination, like the UK. Why do people not consider kids younger than 12yo as part of the population? MILLIONS of kids can't be vaccinated yet (but will hopefully come december). Any talk of lifting restrictions before march is basically a re-formulated "fuck the kids".

No it's not. There's still no evidence that there is any real risk to children. Please prove otherwise. Anecdotes and one in a million cases don't count.
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