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Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

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Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#31

Post by belter »

belter wrote: post #16
recursivedoubts wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A possible mechanism I have seen mentioned is Antibody Dependent Enhancement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement I am not a biologist and have no opinion on the matter, I have just seen it mentioned online.

Interesting. It seems that this was actually a concern and considered during initial development of COVID vaccines. It seems it was considered not likely to happen but there is this interesting part here from 2019 that caught my attention: "Consensus summary report for CEPI/BC March 12–13, 2020 meeting: Assessment of risk of disease enhancement with COVID-19 vaccines" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247…

Hopefully somebody will be able to comment further. In the meanwhile...I found this a good quality overview of the issue. Reference includes video and transcript for quicker read.

The TL;DR is that is considered unlikely for reasons explained. ( but not completely impossible )

"Do COVID-19 Vaccines Cause Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE)?"

https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-cent...

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#33

Post by rubicon33 »

linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I think it's still concerning that 60% of hospitalizations are vaccinated patients. Even if 79% of the population is vaccinated.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#34

Post by ekianjo »

GeekyBear wrote: post #29

Some information on which groups among the fully vaccinated are seeing a serious breakthrough infection. >As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-... and >comorbidities were more frequent in patien…

I'd like to see the number of serious cases by age brackets, and by profile of patients (with comorbidities and not).

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#35

Post by DanielDent »

Things that matter a lot these days:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

Someone that's done some analysis using the above mental models: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#36

Post by tracyhenry »

linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#37

Post by ekianjo »

linuxhansl wrote: post #26
bsaul wrote: post #4

i'm amazed at the number of people still believing high vaccination rates will get us rid of the covid, despite all the evidences of the previous year pointing in the opposite directions (people getting infected multiple times in a short period, variants mutating the spike protein a lot, and more recently vaccinated people still proven to be both carrier and transmitter of the virus). The final nail in the coffin bei…

I'm afraid I do not follow... 1. 21.2% of the population (unvaccinated people older than 12) make up 40% of the hospitalizations. It's even more stark when you remove the immune compromised from the statistic. 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. 3. While vaccinated people still can get sick (and why won't they, the immune sys…

> 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%.

That's not how herd immunity works. You don't set a moving goalpost out of nowhere. We should be measuring R instead, and I suspect R is hardly impacted by vaccines at least for the Delta variant.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#38

Post by dogma1138 »

linuxhansl wrote: post #27
dogma1138 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the GP was asking a question, not stating it as a fact.

A question that would take 2-3 minutes of Googling to answer. I did not downvote that question, but I still think it didn't have any place here.

No it really wouldn’t, some vaccine candidates including for MERS and SARS have exhibited ADE (a phenomenon that isn’t well understood to begin with) in some animal models. It so far hasn’t been observed in humans with any of the approved COVID vaccines but it doesn’t mean that it can’t happen either with some new mutation or in some rare cases with existing variants.

In general if you Google this without a pretty in depth understanding of biology and immunology you’ll go down a rabbit hole that would just reinforce your current position.

Asking a question shouldn’t be downvoted and even if you haven’t you shouldn’t excuse this behavior.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#39

Post by throwawayboise »

recursivedoubts wrote: post #7
mixedCase wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What mechanism are you suggesting would be at fault for such an outcome?

A possible mechanism I have seen mentioned is Antibody Dependent Enhancement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement I am not a biologist and have no opinion on the matter, I have just seen it mentioned online.

ADE can also happen with exposure to a virus itself, such as happens with Dengue fever. It's not something strictly limited to vaccines.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#40

Post by chaostheory »

linuxhansl wrote: post #17

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I'm pro-vaccination, but there's no sugar coating the fact that %60 of hospitalizations are of previously vaccinated people.

I don't know much about mRNA vaccines, but do mRNA vaccines induce sterilizing immunity?

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