The mutation that helps Delta spread • Hacker News Board

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#511

Post by elif » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:05 AM UTC

henrikschroder wrote: post #509

Jeema101 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope I am mistaken here, but... are you saying that it would need to kill 1/6th of the population every year (instead of 1/600) before you will consider putting a piece of cloth over your face? What's so terrible about wearing a mask?

> What's so terrible about wearing a mask? Their efficiency at stopping the spread is extremely small, and the whole debate takes energy away from things that actually work that we should be doing instead. Masks are virtue-signaling talismans at best, just look at how people are actually using them.

If masks are used at a distance outdoors in the context of essential services during a lockdown with no shared indoor spaces they are ~extremely~ effective at preventing viral spread.

I agree though they are contributing arguably more harm than good now by encouraging people to feel safe making unnecessary contact.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#512

Post by elif » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:08 AM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #427

aflag wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

Socializing is extremely high friction in a mask. Pre-mask, I'd make small talk with store clerks or waiters all the time. After masking, I can count on one hand the number of times that happened. You struggle to understand people's muffled words, they struggle to understand yours. Facial expressions, the most important component of non-verbal communication, are half-hidden. Conveying a smile, the universal way to ex…

Okay relax. that's being dramatic.

My cute cat mask does not give me the psychological conditioning of a person with a permanently disfigured face.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#513

Post by encryptluks2 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:15 AM UTC

cblconfederate wrote: post #502

ivanhoe wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire It's really funny to watch all the push back against masks considering how many uncomfortable things people put on themselves every single day, and usually just because someone told them it's cool thing to do. High heels, bras, neckties, etc. and not to forget things that we do to our bodies like implants and piercings and tattoos - most of that is way less use…

That analogy breaks down awkwardly when you consider the hijab or the burka

So funny to watch people on TV showing how brave women in Afghanistan are while wearing a hijab. Even the TV anchors wear them even though they aren't Muslim. I'm like... Where are the brave women who don't hide themselves?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#514

Post by encryptluks2 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:17 AM UTC

dehrmann wrote: post #451

hncurious wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's actually what Dr Fauci initially talked about with regard to the general public. With how masks are worn and used in practice, he was probably right. Fauci: There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that…

Fauci later admitted to essentially lying to the public so there wasn't a shortage of masks for healthcare workers. https://www.thestreet.com/video/dr-fauci-masks-changing-dire... > "Well, the reason for [not telling people to wear masks in March, 2020] is that we were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, incl…

Government employees have a habit of doing that.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#515

Post by shaklee3 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:19 AM UTC

JackFr wrote: post #478

jader201 wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then most masks, by your logic (and not necessarily arguing your logic) aren’t working. The only way to completely seal off your mouth and nose is to wear a more fitted mask. The masks most (probably 99%+) people are wearing are ducting air on either side of the nose. And yes, most masks have the metal piece to help with this, but it doesn’t work. No matter how I adjust the metal piece, air makes its way out. So if w…

I think cloth masks are at the crossroads of wishful thinking and public health theater. They absolutely have legitimate medical uses, and can prevent droplet borne disease transmission and thus there is a plausible mechanism by which they reduce spread. But I don’t think there’s any serious evidence that they are anything more than marginal with respect to the spread of COVID.

That's not true. There have been plenty of studies showing cloth masks help significantly over nothing, and especially if it's a double layer mask. The cotton ones that are breathable are worse.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#516

Post by elif » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:21 AM UTC

resource0x wrote: post #375

stakkur wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current breakthrough rate in the US is .004%, including Delta. In fact, vaccines are generally working as well or better than expected against all known variants.

Could you please give a scientific explanation of the difference between the most vaccinated country and one of the least vaccinated countries located next to it https://www.google.com/search?q=israel+covid+cases&rlz=1C1CH ... https://www.google.com/search?q=palestine+covid+cases&rlz=1C... ...

I am not an apologist for vaccine utopianism and don't agree with the other commenter but your particular example suffers the same unfortunate fate of a point I made in the past. The scientific explanation is that Google infographics suck. They are sourced from wikipedia data and have huge gaps and sometimes even absurd duplicates.

If you look at a consistent data source[0] you will see that the 7-day average case rate in Palestine has gone from 131 on August 11th to 699 August 20th, a doubling time of 1.42 days. This would be extremely rapid transmission.

[0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/palestine

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#517

Post by epylar » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:25 AM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #446

mynegation wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it may all look like small potatoes, but this is HN and you are two orders of magnitude off. 0.01% is pretty close to annual death rate from flu in pre-COVID years [1] so the situation that "one hundred times worse than the current situation" will make it 100 hundred times worse (i.e. significantly worse) than seasonal influenza. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Okay, fair enough. But a major difference is that flu deaths are much more heavily burdened on the the young, whereas Covid is on the very elderly. The death of a 6 month old from flu results in approximately 20 times more QALY loss than an 85 year old. Let me approach it from another angle. Pre-vaccine, it appears that Covid roughly doubled everyone's all-cause mortality.[1] Like it killed 30 year olds at a much low…

Relying on QALY results in some very strange decisions, unless you allow for negative QALY. E.g., to maximize total QALY you'd want a very large population.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#518

Post by elif » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:27 AM UTC

throwawaysea wrote: post #175

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I certainly hope it isn't leading to a society where papers are checked and masks are always required. Although I am vaccinated, I feel vaccine mandates constitute a breach of bodily autonomy and medical privacy. As for masks - I find them stifling in more ways than one - it is hard to breathe, it fogs up glasses, it causes me to feel overheated, and it really diminishes human connection and exchange of emotions. I t…

if you don't question your bodily autonomy when you get a tetanus shot, chances are you are over-politicizing a fundamental and basic health function.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#519

Post by epylar » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:28 AM UTC

henrikschroder wrote: post #510

james-skemp wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> those who refuse to vaccinate Please don't forget about children who don't have a vaccine, or individuals that can't vaccinate. Last I heard maybe next year children under 12 (?, mine is under 5) will have a vaccine. But with talk of a third shot, and possible issues with Moderna, we'll see.

Healthy children are at approximately one-in-a-million risk of dying from covid-19 if they get infected. It's more dangerous for you to drive someplace with your kid than for your kid to remain unvaccinated. Children in risk groups should of course get vaccinated. But we're much better off making sure the limited supply of vaccines go to older people in other parts of the world than to healthy kids in the developed w…

Source for 1/1000000 death risk for children infected by covid-19 delta variant?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#520

Post by Teever » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:31 AM UTC

betwixthewires wrote: post #460

ivanhoe wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire It's really funny to watch all the push back against masks considering how many uncomfortable things people put on themselves every single day, and usually just because someone told them it's cool thing to do. High heels, bras, neckties, etc. and not to forget things that we do to our bodies like implants and piercings and tattoos - most of that is way less use…

The difference is that those are worn by choice, and in very specific social situations. A more comparable thing would be to shoes, or shirts, since we are talking about everyone wearing them. It's not just a matter of making it cool, hats are cool and not everyone wears a hat. Facial expression is a very important part of human interaction and I think that will always outweigh any amount of cool that can be pumped i…

Waitresses do not wear high heels by choice and there are some jurisdictions that have banned employers from mandating that waitresses must wear heels.

Additionally I doubt that many would chose to wear an uncomfortable necktie to work if they weren't mandated to by their employers.