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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

401–410 of 641 posts

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#401

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Yeah, as long as COVID-19 fills up hospitals we should do this. Not having hospitals seriously compromises quality of life. I had untreated kidney stones for about a week at the peak of the pandemic. When I was in the middle of an attack I could not work, the pain was too severe. I was missing several hours of work everyday just dealing with pain. I finally got to the emergency room which did basic imaging and gave m…

Hospitals are always full. Like any business, they mean to run at close to capacity. Capacity here has more to do with staffing than actual rooms, beds, or equipment.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#402
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iaIYlcD_Po

Your video claims that masks don’t work because they’ll leak vape smoke. However, masks aren’t meant to be airtight, but rather a barrier against droplets (like the kind expelled when you cough or sneeze). Droplets are what primarily carry the virus across long distances.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#403
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

I wear glasses and masks are basically untenable. I have yet to wear a mask and not fog up my glasses. Maybe I'm just an idiot, I don't know, but being able to see properly is far more valuable to me than not getting COVID (in it's current state and threat level to me).

I am in the same boat with glasses. In the winter, I use some decent quality medical tape across the top of the mask to prevent fogging. The 3M medical paper tape works really well and is not too sticky and doesnt irritate my skin.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the delta variant R₀ in fully vaccinated communities though? Certainly it's not in the range of 5 to 9. If it's something like 2, then sure, a mask mandate makes sense for everyone. But if it's much lower than 1, then is it fair to force the vaccinated to wear masks? Is this sort of information hidden from the public because officials are too cowardly to force vaccine passports? There are so many information…

You can figure it with math. Given a starting R0, a vaccination level, and an efficacy, you can figure effective Rt: Rt = R0 * (1 - (vacRate * effRate)) So if Delta R0 is 6, a community is 65% vaccinated, and a vaccine is 80% effective against transmission, then effective Rt would be: Rt = 6 * ( 1 - (.65 * .8)) = 2.88 Real effective Rt includes impact of mitigation levels and natural immunity. So for instance, in Por…

You are assuming that R0 for vaccinated that contract the virus is the same as those who are unvaccinated that contract the virus, which does not appear to be the case.

That was my question - how much less do those who are vaccinated and contract the virus infect other people than those who are unvaccinated and contract the virus. That can't be calculated from a single R0 number.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#405

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I certainly hope it isn't leading to a society where papers are checked and masks are always required. Although I am vaccinated, I feel vaccine mandates constitute a breach of bodily autonomy and medical privacy. As for masks - I find them stifling in more ways than one - it is hard to breathe, it fogs up glasses, it causes me to feel overheated, and it really diminishes human connection and exchange of emotions. I t…

>The infection fatality rate for COVID is incredibly low, particularly for those under 50.

The infection fatality rate is relatively low when hospitals aren't overwhelmed and when we have oxygen available, and let's not forget all the mask and vaccine measures you disparage.

That rate isn't going to remain low with the 'I've got mine, %$#@! you' attitude some people have, when even the lowest cost intervention (like wearing a mask) is unacceptable. With no interventions, infections spike and the death rate will be higher.

Ultimately, restrictions will remain until enough people have been vaccinated, either via the vaccine and/or in the 'natural' way. The attitude of some just means we'll all suffer for a bit longer.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#406
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for sharing your experience. >"... Of course the thing to emphasise is that, whilst it might break through, the vaccine still stops serious illness to a high degree...." Important to note, vaccines do not protect you, its the immune response they trigger and the level of antibodies that will protect you. What really should be happening should be a mass vaccination program and a mass antibodies level testing pr…

I'm curious to know how much the reaction to the second or subsequent jabs correlates to antibody/immunity level. I had no reaction to the first jab and a 12-hour flu-like reaction to the second jab the next day (both Moderna). NOT having a similar reaction to a third booster would be concerning, but I wonder how much the reaction actually correlates with protection for shots beyond the first.

for what its worth, I had AZ as my first shot and it was pretty rough for 36 hours and then I was fine. My second shot of pfizer 8 weeks later barely left a sore spot on my arm. Not sure what if anything it means, but curious what will happen if I get a 3rd.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it appears that it is still unknown how likely breakthrough infections are to result in long Covid. The very limited data that does exist indicates that the likelyhood is rather high (~20%). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well/live/vaccine-long-co...

Long Covid has the same symptoms as stress, anxiety and depression, which are to be expected after contracting a pandemic level virus and being forced to isolate. Is there any proof yet that it is any more than that?

Yes there is:

Brain imaging before and after COVID-19 in UK Biobank https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v...

Cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...

Long term loss of smell and taste is not a known symptom of stress, anxiety, or depression either as far as I am aware.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#408
post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

> ...the vaccine still stops serious illness to a high degree.

Anecdotally, you don't know that, you don't know what caused you to have a mild case, if this had happened a year ago you wouldn't be giving credit to a vaccine.

> it does seem like this virus is bucking the trend and not necessarily becoming less potent

Don't you think it's possible your very mild case might be evidence against this claim? Anecdotal, of course. I haven't seen the data for infection vs hospitalization/fatality rate for the Delta variant against previous ones, but it just seems to me that someone having caught it and had a very mild case wouldn't logically jump to "it isn't less deadly."

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

I hope I am mistaken here, but... are you saying that it would need to kill 1/6th of the population every year (instead of 1/600) before you will consider putting a piece of cloth over your face? What's so terrible about wearing a mask?

Not OP but my 2 cents is that we'll look back at this (and the time before covid) and wonder why we never mandated masks in places like doctor's offices and hospitals long before this. With Covid in the equation, maybe you extend that to places like grocery stores as well.

I think the thought process around this greatly changes if you look at the problem on a societal or individual level. For example (with fake numbers) if a cloth mask protects is 50% effective, it's worth it on a societal level (prevents 50% of infections which makes a huge impact on hospital load) but not on an individual level (you only need 1 infection to catch the disease and die).

However my problems with masks long-term on an individual level are: - Where's it's theatrical such as outdoors; why do i need to wear a mask when running outside by myself, or when playing soccer outdoors. My city required this for a while and many people still choose to do this even while walking their dogs by themselves. Bars/restaurants; Maybe I'm wrong but it doesn't seem very helpful to wear mask for 30 seconds while you walk to your table then sit there talking/yelling for hours while eating and drinking without the mask on. Or (something i know much less about) if simple cloth masks are really less effective (on an individual vs pandemic/societal level) then N95 masks, then why is the mandate just to wear cloth masks. - The philosophical problem of shifting the burden of protecting immune-compromised people onto all of society rather then finding a solution that is centered on them directly. Why should everyone at a concert be forced to wear a mask when a) it's a dangerous environment to be in if you don't have a health immune system. it was before the pandemic and it will be afterwards as well. b) why don't you just create an immune-compromised "vip" section instead (maybe with whatever technologies required to ensure the virus doesn't cross the boundary. c) If (again not sure on this) wearing something like an N95 mask "100%" protects the immune-compromised, why do the rest of us need to take action as well. Relying on 99% of people to protect 1% seems like it should be the last resort solution in a long-term endemic sense.

I don't think it's worth debating the details of this today because the answer will require lots of nuance and data that doesn't and cannot exist today. What variant(s) become endemic? How much of the population is considered vulnerable to those variants? What technologies are available to protect people at an individual level? How prevalent is testing 5 years from now? How effective are the vaccines over long periods of time? ect...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#410
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for sharing your experience. >"... Of course the thing to emphasise is that, whilst it might break through, the vaccine still stops serious illness to a high degree...." Important to note, vaccines do not protect you, its the immune response they trigger and the level of antibodies that will protect you. What really should be happening should be a mass vaccination program and a mass antibodies level testing pr…

> What really should be happening should be a mass vaccination program Compulsory mass vaccination using the current vaccines poses a serious public health risk [1][2][3]. See my other comments here for more explanation and citations. For these reasons, vaccination strategies should be highly targeted towards vulnerable populations, and should be heavily supplemented by additional therapeutic modalities. > and a mass…

So "[3]" is the only citation you give that addresses vaccine escape and it is about how it doesn't happen that often.

Nice work.

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