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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#331

Post by tux1968 »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #286
tux1968 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The disease is spreading primarily among the unvaccinated. What is the evidence for this? Vaccinated people are capable of spreading the disease just as easily as those who aren't. And since they're much more likely to be asymptomatic, may be more likely to spread the disease unknowingly. Those without the vaccination are more likely to end up in hospital, but that says nothing about how the disease is actually bei…

I never said "spreading from the unvaccinated" I said "spreading among the unvaccinated" which is borne out by the fact that the unvaccinated (and partially vaccinated) here are only 35% of the population (25% of the eligible population) but are 75% of the daily new case count (and perhaps higher because there's a % with unknown vaccination status)

How are case counts determined? Why would someone who has no symptoms go for testing? Case counts among the vaccinated are surely being under reported because they're asymptomatic.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#332

Post by tux1968 »

robertoandred wrote: post #317
tux1968 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The disease is spreading primarily among the unvaccinated. What is the evidence for this? Vaccinated people are capable of spreading the disease just as easily as those who aren't. And since they're much more likely to be asymptomatic, may be more likely to spread the disease unknowingly. Those without the vaccination are more likely to end up in hospital, but that says nothing about how the disease is actually bei…

The vaccinated may be just as capable of spreading covid, but they’re less likely to be infected in the first place.

The vaccinated are not less likely to be infected. The vaccine can not stop infection, it can only help your body fight off the effects of infection.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#333

Post by stakkur »

jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Current breakthrough rate in the US is .004%, including Delta. In fact, vaccines are generally working as well or better than expected against all known variants.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#334

Post by rolph »

code_duck wrote: post #321
johnchristopher wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand: Not if symptoms appear many days after the infection. Covid easily transmits when it's still in the upper parts of the body. Once it gets into the chest/pulmonary system and you start manifesting symptoms and it start inflicting long lasting damages it has already contaminated others. What happens then and after that doesn't apply pressure to the virus to be less virulent or lethal.

True. A longer asymptomatic incubation period is also an evolutionary advantage.

when reproduction[X] occurs before a selective factor[y] is in play, the selective factor has no first order influence on reproductive success.

the theory of inverse relationship between severity of symptoms and transmissibility, is based on the idea that sick individuals spend more time laying in convolesence than interacting with other individuals.

this mechanism goes out the window when the infection is transmissible before symptoms appear.

this is the case with covid, i wish it was other than wishfull hoping but it isnt.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#335

Post by doubleunplussed »

tunesmith wrote: post #318
undersuit wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bacteria can mutate in direct response to antibiotics. Viruses cannot mutate in direct response to vaccines. What do you mean by this? Are you a Lamarckian?

I don't know what that is. Put a bacteria and an antibiotic in a petri dish, and the bacteria can evolve in a way that has greater antibiotic resistance. Put a vaccine in a petri dish with a virus, and nothing happens. Bacteria are living organisms. Viruses are not.

Viruses are subject to selection, mutation, and heredity. These are the three necessary ingredients for Darwinian evolution.

Whether they're defined as "life" or not isn't really relevant.

(Personally, I have a pet definition of "life" that just equates it to being subject to Darwinian evolution. Viruses not being defined as life never sat well with me)

Vaccines can't do their thing in a petri dish, they need an immune system to work via. That's just a petri dish not being an adequate simulation of the environment viruses are normally in, and doesn't imply anything about whether viruses are subject to Darwinian forces.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#336

Post by jimmaswell »

bingohbangoh wrote: post #320
jimmaswell wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to end at some point, and for me and most other people where I live in the US, it mostly has.

I thought the same last summer. It's always "almost over" yet there's chatter of Lockdown 3.0 here in the tristate area.

I see in New York's case that there's been a big rise in cases but barely a blip in deaths, as opposed to both rising in step in Texas, I'm guessing largely due to vaccination rate. So I expect this winter will be a lot better.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#337

Post by rolph »

mynameishere wrote: post #206
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

a bit more A bit more until the virus decides to go away? Or a bit more until they invent a non-leaky vaccine? Or a bit more like when the cows come home? Because that's what you are talking about. A bit more forever.

a bit more until the virus runs out of variants, or in a very rare case becomes able to duck the immune system.

a bit more until there are no more infectable hosts, and a variant spills over from our species of succeptability to another of succeptability that will allow greater transmission, wash rinse repeat. this or very similar has happened 6 or perhaps 7 times as evidenced by the endemic corona virus we all experience on a regular basis

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#338

Post by cmrdporcupine »

tux1968 wrote: post #331
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said "spreading from the unvaccinated" I said "spreading among the unvaccinated" which is borne out by the fact that the unvaccinated (and partially vaccinated) here are only 35% of the population (25% of the eligible population) but are 75% of the daily new case count (and perhaps higher because there's a % with unknown vaccination status)

How are case counts determined? Why would someone who has no symptoms go for testing? Case counts among the vaccinated are surely being under reported because they're asymptomatic.

That would show up in the test positivity rate, as it would mess with the denominator. In my area it's pretty low (2.5%) still, despite case counts rising which shows that lots of people are testing negative.

Also your claim about people with the vaccine still being infected/infectious is a pretty bold claim. That's not settled science, and it's quite likely (and consistent with other viruses and vaccines) that the immune system fights off a COVID infection before it becomes communicable in most immunized people. There are definitely breakthrough cases but it's not clear that the majority of cases behave this way.

Of course we'll likely never know for sure because of the stubborn 30-50% who refuse to get vaccinated.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#339

Post by tux1968 »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #338
tux1968 wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are case counts determined? Why would someone who has no symptoms go for testing? Case counts among the vaccinated are surely being under reported because they're asymptomatic.

That would show up in the test positivity rate, as it would mess with the denominator. In my area it's pretty low (2.5%) still, despite case counts rising which shows that lots of people are testing negative. Also your claim about people with the vaccine still being infected/infectious is a pretty bold claim. That's not settled science, and it's quite likely (and consistent with other viruses and vaccines) that the i…

> That would show up in the test positivity rate, as it would mess with the denominator. In my area it's pretty low (2.5%) still, despite case counts rising.

I don't understand this. My conjecture is that people who are infected but asymptomatic due to vaccination would have no reason to show up in the case counts either way, since they would not seek out being tested at all.

As for being a bold claim, it's established science that vaccination can not prevent infection. The virus can still enter your system. I agree that it is a debatable question as to how many and to what extent those vaccinated people are infectious to others.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#340

Post by criticaltinker »

civilized wrote: post #327
criticaltinker wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My emphasis is on compulsory , but perhaps I should've been more clear. Obviously I've triggered some people here. Vaccines are powerful tools that help save lives and we should use them. But if they are used indiscriminately they can actually further endanger public health. You might be familiar with antibiotic resistance - vaccines are subject to the same potential for unexpected consequences. All of the sources I…

I stand by my post. None of this says anything remotely implying what you claimed, that the mass vaccination programs pose a serious public health risk. That is purely your speculation, vaguely inspired by the content of the papers. Your contention that it matters whether the campaign is compulsory or not only takes you further from your supposed evidence base. It's not even in the same universe as what the papers ar…

> "the vaccines are a serious public health risk"

That is not my claim. My claim is that compulsory mass vaccination using the current vaccines are a serious public health risk.

You are the one making an unjustified leap, in what appears to be closed minded defensiveness of your ideology. We are in agreement that vaccines serve a useful purpose and can help save lives. Not sure how I can be any more clear.

> It's not even in the same universe as what the papers are talking about, and is purely your own invention

It's obvious that you haven't read any of the cited references. Vaccine induced immune escape is a well known risk to experts in the field, and has plenty of historical precedent. To suggest otherwise is completely disingenuous of you, and only speaks to your lack of knowledge on the subject matter.

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