The mutation that helps Delta spread • Hacker News Board

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#231

Post by monoideism » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:20 PM UTC

irthomasthomas wrote: post #208

loosescrews wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it appears that it is still unknown how likely breakthrough infections are to result in long Covid. The very limited data that does exist indicates that the likelyhood is rather high (~20%). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well/live/vaccine-long-co...

Long Covid has the same symptoms as stress, anxiety and depression, which are to be expected after contracting a pandemic level virus and being forced to isolate. Is there any proof yet that it is any more than that?

Long covid often includes easily quantifiable issues such as lung and heart issues.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#232

Post by sreque » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:20 PM UTC

rescripting wrote: post #209

walterbell wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not having hospitals seriously compromises quality of life. A non-trivial percentage of healthcare workers were infected in 2020 and recovered with natural immunity to Covid. Some of those feel strongly enough about vaccine mandates that they are prepared to move jurisdictions or retire, which would exacerbate existing staffing shortages in some hospitals. If we don't want more hospital shortages, we should reconsi…

A recent study showed having had COVID before offers less protection from reinfection than the vaccine [0]. "The study of hundreds of Kentucky residents with previous infections through June 2021 found that those who were unvaccinated had 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with those who were fully vaccinated. The findings suggest that among people who have had COVID-19 previously, getting fully vaccinated p…

This article completely destroy the CDC's report: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/more-voodoo-e....

The CDC's report is a fantastic example as to why the CDC don't deserve our trust. They are dishonest. They cherry pick data to fit their narrative. They are unburdened by the constraints of peer review. They admit in their own study that it can't apply causation and yet they remain silent as the media run wild and report the study as causative fact.

This analysis has, to my knowledge, not been debunked at all: https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p....

It shows natural immunity far outclassing vaccine immunity in Israel.

In terms of peer reviewed studies, they all show that natural immunity is fantastic:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781112

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(21)0...

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/pdf/RMV...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#233

Post by lambdaba » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:21 PM UTC

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #159

nradov wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in the case of vitamin D it's hardly pseudoscience. Multiple clinical studies have found that hypovitaminosis D is a serious risk factor for COVID-19. https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/

It is correlated, but I am not aware of even a single study that shows actual causal determination.

I recall studies showing significant efficacy even in acute settings, which was slightly unexpected, at least to me.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#234

Post by BjoernKW » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:21 PM UTC

hartator wrote: post #216

BjoernKW wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been asking those questions for about 16 months now and hardly anyone of those in charge is willing to even consider an answer. They just botch and bumble their way through from one lockdown to the next. The COVID-19 vaccines are a boon and a vital component for ending this crisis. However, they're not the panacea those in charge made them out to be. Make no mistake, those vaccines, particularly those of the mRN…

Getting tested - have you? - is not neutral on your body. The nasal swab is sterilized by a carcinogen gas which exposure should be limited and you can’t avoid wrong gesture by a nurse physically damaging your nose. It’s fine time to time but not everyday.

Regarding that claim about the carcinogen gas (ethylene oxide) see https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-swabs-... , for example

That an object has been exposed to a compound during that object's lifetime doesn't necessarily mean that you'll be exposed to that compound upon touching the object.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#235

Post by jmfldn » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:21 PM UTC

tommymachine wrote: post #215

jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Do you have awareness that your anecdotal data, even if it were more than anecdotal, still would not prove that the shots you've taken reduced the symptoms, as many cases are asymptomatic / mild symptoms anyways?

Sure, it's anecdotal not proof and in no way scientific my self assessment. I've just noticed a trend amongst friends recently.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#236

Post by chinathrow » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:21 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #183

chinathrow wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Less than 40% of the US population is completely unvaccinated, which means we can open up more without overwhelming hospitals. Not sure where you get this about open up, but have you seen current ICU fill levels in various US states such as Alabamba etc?

That’s quite regional. Nationwide there is still plenty of ICU beds available, and presumably if it gets bad enough hot spots will respond appropriately.

Huh? If you have a heart attack or a stroke or a grave accident you need a regional ER asap, not one 5h away.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#237

Post by tunesmith » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:22 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #201

tunesmith wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the best article I've recently read that describes what is currently going on: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has... (Pulitzer Prize winner for science communication)

Thanks for the link! Lots of interesting details in there. I'll attempt a TL;DR of points most relevant for non-Americans (but please check the article for context, particularly on numbers, and link to sources): - Delta variant has ridiculously high R₀ - estimated to be between 5 and 9, where initial COVID-19 variants had it around 2 to 3. - Viruses spread nonuniformly. Old COVID-19 (R₀ = 2-3) tended to spread throug…

One clarification - between 0.01% and 0.29% (actually 0.54% now) of fully vaccinated people are affected by breakthrough infection, while 88% effective means in a situation where an unvaccinated person would become infected, the vaccinated person would have an 88% chance of not being infected. So the difference between the two is exposure, which is a function of prevalence.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#238

Post by polote » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:23 PM UTC

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

Vaccinate all people greater than 40 years old, preferably anyone and resume a normal life.

Even though the vaccine doesn't prevent to catch covid to high degree, it still prevent deaths and hospitalizations to more than 90% (whether Delta or not, and whether Aztrazaneca or Pfizer or Moderna)

Long Covid seems to exists, but it is about 2-3% of cases so nothing to really worry about more than any other disease.

Maybe at some point the vaccine won't protect from a new variant and things will change. But so far so good. And even at this point, Lockdowns and masks mania doesn't seem to be give a better output than asking citizen to be careful and try to limit meeting too many people (Sweden)

Here for more details https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-her...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#239

Post by eecc » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:25 PM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #220

loosescrews wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it appears that it is still unknown how likely breakthrough infections are to result in long Covid. The very limited data that does exist indicates that the likelyhood is rather high (~20%). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well/live/vaccine-long-co...

Isn't long Covid caused by damage from the spike proteins? In that case, repeatedly giving people the vaccine might do damage as well since it gets you to produce those spike proteins right?

orders of magnitude less though.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#240

Post by tunesmith » Fri, Aug 20, 2021, 9:26 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #230

TeMPOraL wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the link! Lots of interesting details in there. I'll attempt a TL;DR of points most relevant for non-Americans (but please check the article for context, particularly on numbers, and link to sources): - Delta variant has ridiculously high R₀ - estimated to be between 5 and 9, where initial COVID-19 variants had it around 2 to 3. - Viruses spread nonuniformly. Old COVID-19 (R₀ = 2-3) tended to spread throug…

What is the delta variant R₀ in fully vaccinated communities though? Certainly it's not in the range of 5 to 9. If it's something like 2, then sure, a mask mandate makes sense for everyone. But if it's much lower than 1, then is it fair to force the vaccinated to wear masks? Is this sort of information hidden from the public because officials are too cowardly to force vaccine passports? There are so many information…

You can figure it with math. Given a starting R0, a vaccination level, and an efficacy, you can figure effective Rt:

Rt = R0 * (1 - (vacRate * effRate))

So if Delta R0 is 6, a community is 65% vaccinated, and a vaccine is 80% effective against transmission, then effective Rt would be:

Rt = 6 * ( 1 - (.65 * .8)) = 2.88

Real effective Rt includes impact of mitigation levels and natural immunity. So for instance, in Portland OR, Rt is about 1.4. We didn't get hit as hard as surrounding states in the first few rounds, so we don't have as much natural immunity. In contrast, Seattle got hit harder early on; their effective Rt is a little lower - and Silicon Valley is actually pretty close to 1 right now.