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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#181

Post by mrfusion »

tcbawo wrote: post #102
johnbaker92 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's sad that this comment (and probably mine) downvoted despite being a reasonable long-term response to this virus. Instead of mandating this vaccine worldwide, why don't we focus on collectively building a better / stronger health that would prevent the large majority of severe cases?

I haven't seen an evidence that supplements would prevent the majority of severe cases, or the neurological damage done (in even mild cases). Is this something backed up by data?

Is neurological damage in mild cases backed up by data? The only study I saw was based on self reporting and an Internet based IQ test.

Also considering perhaps 30% of the world has had covid now (anyone have the exact figure?) that would be an unbelievable amount of brain damage. I’d think we’d be aware of that if one in three people had recent brain damage.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#182

Post by walterbell »

quarterdime wrote: post #116
walterbell wrote: post #13

Since the deadliest virus mutations kill their hosts, weaker virus mutations can spread (without killing their hosts) more quickly. US deaths peaked in January 2021, before Delta became prevalent in the US, before substantial vaccination, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-... US daily vaccines peaked in April 2021, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/us-daily-covid-vaccine-do... India (origin…

"Since the deadliest virus mutations kill their hosts, weaker virus mutations can spread (without killing their hosts) more quickly." The problem with the SARS-COV2 virus is that infected individuals are infected before they're symptomatic, let alone dead. Thus there is no evolutionary pressure that would make this virus less lethal, as is the case for viruses that kill their hosts early in the course of infection.

What are some good references on asymptomatic transmission?

Early 2020 reports of asymptomatic transmission from South Korea were later retracted. There was a contact tracing study of 10 million people in Wuhan which found no asymptomatic transmission.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#183

Post by Retric »

chinathrow wrote: post #81
Retric wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Herd immunity happens long before we are all infected. Less than 40% of the US population is completely unvaccinated, which means we can open up more without overwhelming hospitals. That does put the unvaccinated at increased risks, but the general public is seemingly unwilling to continue lockdowns to protect people choosing not to be vaccinated. If ~85% is needed for herd immunity then we could be rapidly approachi…

> Less than 40% of the US population is completely unvaccinated, which means we can open up more without overwhelming hospitals. Not sure where you get this about open up, but have you seen current ICU fill levels in various US states such as Alabamba etc?

That’s quite regional. Nationwide there is still plenty of ICU beds available, and presumably if it gets bad enough hot spots will respond appropriately.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#184

Post by ldjkfkdsjnv »

schmichael wrote: post #155
ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I got covid last march, and got it again one month ago. I was very sick for three weeks on my second covid infection. I think we are about to face the harsh reality that covid is never going away, and immunity and is never going to happen. The virus will mutate and find new ways to infect

> I think we are about to face... I feel like this is what most experts were saying from near the beginning: this is not a few months problem. This is an ongoing problem that will require us to adapt just as it adapts. I remember many articles in 2020 projecting what the virus might look like 5 or 8 years out. Lockdowns and other extreme measures were about flattening infection curves to keep from overwhelming health…

I just dont see how getting a shot every year or six months for eternity is a viable solution. Not only that, vaccinated individuals can encourage new mutations (this is controversial, but I believe over time it will be realized)

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#185

Post by bredren »

tehjoker wrote: post #176
criticaltinker wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is a fantastic resource from the UK government that answers your question in great detail [1]. > As eradication of SARS-CoV-2 will be unlikely, we have high confidence in stating that there will always be variants. > We describe hypothetical scenarios by which SARS-CoV-2 could further evolve and acquire, through mutation, phenotypes of concern, which we assess according to possibility. > Scenario One: A variant…

Thank you!

Indeed, thank you for these links and quotes.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#186

Post by silicon2401 »

OneLeggedCat wrote: post #50
silicon2401 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People believe what's comfortable/convenient, not what's true. In very early 2020, when I was following the news of the virus development in Wuhan, China, I felt like a conspiracy theorist pointing out to friends and coworkers that a bad epidemic spreading in one of the most crowded parts of the world. They thought it was ridiculous to say that hospitals were getting overwhelmed, people were being quarantined etc. Do…

> We can reasonably say the Black Death killed 30% of Europe's population. We can't reasonably say covid won't do the same I was going along, nodding my head in agreement until this. Do you realize how bad medical care was during that era? Hygiene? Knowledge of how to slow transmission in a community (we Americans have not yet even BEGUN to really take COVID seriously)? Do you realize how vastly more deadly than Blac…

> It's absurd.

People said that about the idea that covid would become a pandemic too, you just proved my point.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#187

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

>Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months

So what I already do for influenza.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#188

Post by criticaltinker »

nawitus wrote: post #166
criticaltinker wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing death Yes individuals who have been vaccinated or recovered from natural infection will have durable immunity and significantly lower risk of severe outcomes like hospitalization and death. [5][6] The real question: is mass vaccination effective at preventing the spread and increasing trasmission/virulence of variants of concern? A growing body of the scient…

Why use vaccines in a highly targeted way instead of giving it to everyone?

Because mass vaccination combined with a vaccine that does not necessarily prevent infection and transmission creates selective pressure that is likely to further enhance the fitness of the virus and will lead to variants that escape the immune response in both vaccinated and naturally infected individuals.

Excerpts from [1]:

- "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control."

- "Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD?"

- "Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection."

- "The speed at which nAb resistance develops in the population increases substantially as the number of infected individuals increases, suggesting that complementary strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) or that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification) are key to reducing the risk of immune escape"

- "Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities"

[1] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (April 2021) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#189

Post by BjoernKW »

hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I've been asking those questions for about 16 months now and hardly anyone of those in charge is willing to even consider an answer. They just botch and bumble their way through from one lockdown to the next.

The COVID-19 vaccines are a boon and a vital component for ending this crisis. However, they're not the panacea those in charge made them out to be. Make no mistake, those vaccines, particularly those of the mRNA variety are more successful and have been available much more quickly than one could've reasonably hoped them to be.

Still, it should have been clear right from the start that virus variants against which vaccines are not as effective anymore are a distinct possibility.

Hence, my suggestions for a "new normal" (though I dislike that term because it implies both that the world in general is static and that on the other hand we have to accept the current situation as the new default indefinitely) for the time being (that is until COVID-19 has become endemic and most of the population has built up at least some level of immunity - through vaccines or by "natural" means) are these:

1. getting vaccinated, if possible

2. getting booster shots and / or updated vaccines regularly, in case that's proven to be useful (the jury still being out on both counts)

3. wearing masks in certain settings, e.g., on public transport

4. the most important one: having everyone - vaccinated or not - tested for indoor gatherings or large-scale events (rather than prohibiting those outright)

Other than that, life has to continue as normal: No further lockdowns, no social distancing, no civil rights restrictions.

Unfortunately, and totally incomprehensibly, #4 seems to be highly controversial, with some countries now even shutting down their previous - if perhaps not exemplary then at least adequate - testing schemes or implementing truly asinine measures such as mandating people to pay for tests and only requiring those not vaccinated to be tested at all.

Yeah, right. What could possibly go wrong? I suppose the rationale behind that one is: "No tests. No problem."

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#190

Post by sreque »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #126
sreque wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main problem is that the U.S. federal government in particular has been pretending for a while that we can get to zero COVID, then blaming the unvaccinated when it doesn't happen. First, they said we need 50% vaccination to achieve, herd immunity. Then 60%. Then 70%. Then 80%. When things don't work out, they vilify and blame the unvaccinated. In reality, unvaccinated with natural immunity are likely more protect…

You were (legitimately) attacking my numbers elsewhere but here you are posting completely inaccurate information. Israel is nowhere close to "90%" vaccinated. Haaretz from 4 days ago reports them at 78%: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-vaccine-data-how-... Given the vaccine is not approved for people under 12, there's no way it could be 90%, as 28% of their population is 0-14 years old: https://en.wikiped…

I misremembered. It was 90% of people over 50 that were vaccinated. It's in the article I linked. But I don't think that discredits my main point, that increased vaccination rates aren't going to eliminate the virus entirely and that natural immunity is actually doing better.
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