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Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

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Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#181

Post by Joeri »

systemvoltage wrote: post #136
CommieBobDole wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't dismiss Tesla's successes at all, but they are primarily repackaging and improving technologies that already exist. They didn't need to invent the lithium-ion battery, or the electric motor, or the automobile; all of those things already existed and were available to be adapted to Tesla's desired use. Humanoid robots, however, are a much harder problem than building a mass-market-ready electric car. In order…

You've left out manufacturing. Building a car factory + supply chain is quite the challenge. Tesla had the best and the brightest - I've worked with them before they were acquired by Tesla on a daily basis: https://teslagrohmannautomation.de/en/ and still had trouble scaling. Manufacturing is considered to be one of the hardest things about building cars - electric or not. Edit: What's with the downvotes? Disagree? C…

According to musk manufacturing is the hardest part of rocketry as well.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#182

Post by Ekaros »

CommieBobDole wrote: post #53

Musk seems to have fallen for the idea that since he's had great success in one or two areas, he can easily repeat that success in other areas, even if the difficulty is much higher and entirely different skills are required. SpaceX and Tesla are great achievements, but they are primarily stories of successfully implementing and improving existing technologies with innovative engineering and business practices (like…

And then you look at some other things he has part-taken in, like Boring company and ask question how is this in anyway better than what we already have, by any metric...

And I won't even go to Hyperloop, which he had sense not to spend money on...

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#183

Post by llsf »

csmeder wrote: post #94
mortenjorck wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t “no wireless, less space than a Nomad,” though. This is like RCA announcing an iPod in 1961, reasoning that because they already make magnetic tape and portable electronics, it’s only a matter of time before they’ll be able to fit 1000 songs in your pocket.

Fair point, however, I look forward to coming back to this comment in 5 years (1966). Maybe I’ll be eating humble pie, however, my guess is that by then it will be out of prototype phase and in use.

This is a good point that most of us have difficulty to grasp. The innovation speed is actually increasing.

While Tesla is spending a lot of time and effort on their AI (from hardware to software), they might be able to reuse it later for other things, automating more tasks, and at scale. There is a compounding effect.

I don't think Tesla is kidding itself with Optimus, the v1 would be close to useless, and they know it. But it would allow them to learn, build a team of experts and get to the state of the art, to eventually improve it and go beyond. Maybe the main added value at the time would on the software only i.e. mechanically the robot would not be much better than the Boston Robotics of the day. And it could sufficient to actually make a big difference between a Boston Robotics and Tesla Bot ?

I am curious to see what they will end up with. I am not worry about the timeline. I was not expecting a humanoid robot in the next 10years. Tonight announcement is not really changing it, except that now, Musk put a stick on the ground, and we might witness some actual progress.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#185

Post by simondotau »

throwawayboise wrote: post #75
csmeder wrote: post #66

It is interesting that many of the top comments are as dismissive as: “No wireless. Less space than a Nomad. Lame,” When you look at Tesla’s talent in: AI + motors + batteries + manufacturing I can’t believe how negative and dismissive the comments are. Can we not have some appreciation for what Tesla HAS achieved vs only focusing on missed ship dates? The part that I think is going over peoples head is that for so m…

If my robot folds my laundry correctly for 99 days and on the 100th day shreds my wardrobe, I don't think that will print money (at least not for very long).

A robot that folds laundry would obviously have torque limits while handling clothing, so the prospect of destruction would be minimal.

The error domain of a laundry robot would be misidentifying an unusual item and incorrectly folding it, or incorrectly sorting it. If someone sold a humanoid laundry robot which folded and sorted my clothes correctly 99% of the time, I'd consider that miraculous.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#186

Post by squarefoot »

pontusrehula wrote: post #168
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I had to make a bet on when it was possible, I'd say 25 years. Maybe 10 if Tesla goes all-in on robots and spends tens of billions on it, Manhattan project style. I have a decade of experience in robotics (including both humanoid robots and self-driving cars) and I think this is optimistic. Robotics is a wonderful field if you like to work on hard research problems. It is a terrible field if you're trying to inv…

I think industrial robotics is a well established and profitable field.

True, but humanoid robots have little to do with industrial applications. I'm not bashing Tesla or Musk in any way, but this seems more of a mix of PR and research. Robotics is indeed the future, there will be huge demand in a few years, and of course they want to keep a foot in that door, so they need a project which today allows them to say "we're doing robotics too", tomorrow could evolve in big "ooohhh!" and in the meantime let them build experience in the field. In due time all money spent in this field is going to return. In my opinion this robot will probably evolve either into a companion aid for lonely/ill people or maybe a future Tesla luxury car chaffeur, rather than doing any serious mechanical work. For most uses, today a wheeled/tracked platform with grabbers is still cheaper, stronger, better. The knowledge accumulated during the journey to get there however will represent the most valuable asset.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#188

Post by Ekaros »

Geee wrote: post #34
dartharva wrote: post #22

Why humanoid? That's such an inefficient and overcomplicated structure for a "menial job" home robot. This is either a PR stunt or a luxury product.

It needs to be compatible with all human spaces and human tools. It'll need to be general purpose to keep unit costs low. This is why the human form is the best. It's not a menial home robot. It's designed to replace humans in every kind of physical labor.

I wonder which is cheaper. Human shape and human tools. Or something else and bespoke tools... Think of CNC. Swapping tools is well solved problem.

Re: Tesla Announces a Humanoid Robot “Tesla Bot”

#189

Post by llsf »

jes5199 wrote: post #128
adabae wrote: post #30

Tesla 201x -> LiDAR sucks. Humans don't use LiDAR to drive. Tesla 202x -> Yo guys, look at this vector map we've created with 8 cams and a PS4. But forget about this, you know what ROBOT, LOOK AT THIS ROBOT NOT THE 7K YOU'VE SPENT ON FSD, LOOK AT THIS ROBOT IS FANTASTIC. LOOK HOW THE ROBOT DANCES. ROBOT.

I think it’s an intentional distraction. The vector map stuff is a reply to last week’s news cycle where the FTC and the NHTSA are both probing the safety of the self-driving systems, but the robot announcement is to make sure no one discusses the “gosh we made the AI better” claims.

This event was planned way before the recent probing. This was an event to inspire and recruit bright minds. I doubt it has anything to do with FTC or NHTSA, or even Tesla owners. It was not to announce a new version of the FSD. It was job fair.
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