Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#251

Post by crazypyro » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:03 PM UTC

btbuildem wrote: post #236

I don't see this raised anywhere -- but what's so bad about producing fewer cars (the poor neglected shareholders and exec bonuses aside)? It's almost as if we would need to lean into this, reducing growth and producing fewer cars would be in line with efforts to mitigate the drivers of climate change. What if car manufacturers pivoted their KPIs and focused on making long-lasting, serviceable vehicles? Toyota is alr…

>(the poor neglected shareholders and exec bonuses aside)

Well, to provide a different perspective, there are car plants around the US that have been shutdown for months and the people formerly employed there haven't been able to work.

Not necessarily arguing that more cars are better, just its not only shareholders and executives who are hurt by the chip shortage.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#252

Post by rz2k » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:03 PM UTC

vvarren wrote: post #2

This so-called “transitory inflation” is really starting to seem like it will parlay into full blown inflation.

While possible, look at lumber prices now[1] in the context of articles from April saying that the high prices would persist.

Economists who study these phenomena tend to be a better guide than reporting that is in the middle of reacting to dramatic signals like shortages and fast price changes.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#253

Post by eldaisfish » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:04 PM UTC

kwhitefoot wrote: post #232

ghaff wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and might be more reliable in general Cars in, say, the 1960s were not "more reliable in general." It's not all semiconductor-related of course--they also rusted out quickly in areas that got snow--but 5 years/50K miles is about what you were looking at for vehicle lifetime. Also much lower fuel efficiency, to say nothing of lack of what we'd consider routine safety features today.

My 1965 Volvo Amazon did 300 k miles before I scrapped it, in 1984, in favour of a 1976 Volvo 245. I only scrapped it because it wasn't worth anything, it was in perfect working order. The floor of 245 finally succumbed to Norwegian road salt in 1996 after 250 k miles but was otherwise in perfect order. I don't remember how far my 1965 Austin Mini van had done by the time I scrapped it in 1978 but I'm quite sure it w…

this is survivorship bias, nothing more.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#254

Post by blunte » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:04 PM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #87

So new cars are going to be come more expensive due to supply limitations and in turn used cars will continue to become more expensive as they can rise to a certain % of the new car price. At the same time housing prices continue to sky rocket. Seems like not a great time for someone just stepping into adulthood and financial responsibility.

It's been "not a good time" since 1975. Prior to that, at least in first world countries, you could start with less intelligence and have a much better chance at class improvement and even financially secure retirement than now.

On the other hand, if you're in politics, finance, or executive business management, it's been a really, really great last 40+ years.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#255

Post by fulafel » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:04 PM UTC

detaro wrote: post #83

brobdingnagians wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this is a dumb question, but does anyone still produce cars without chips? It's possible, and in the current environment it seems like it would be a major competitive advantage-- and might be more reliable in general.

"Without chips" is not really possible if you want to sell in first-world markets, way to many requirements (engine efficiency, safety features, ...) you would be hard-pressed to meet otherwise.

EVs in lighter classes that don't have ESC requirements would probably work. A bit of battery design work for the analog BMC would be needed to use lithium chemistry but shouldn't be that hard.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#256

Post by 5e92cb50239222b » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:04 PM UTC

eldaisfish wrote: post #247

btbuildem wrote: post #236

I don't see this raised anywhere -- but what's so bad about producing fewer cars (the poor neglected shareholders and exec bonuses aside)? It's almost as if we would need to lean into this, reducing growth and producing fewer cars would be in line with efforts to mitigate the drivers of climate change. What if car manufacturers pivoted their KPIs and focused on making long-lasting, serviceable vehicles? Toyota is alr…

Consider for a moment the people outside the developed world whose lives are greatly improved by cars. Scarcity drives prices up putting things out of their reach.

Have you even been to the developing world? We mostly drive old junkers that were discarded by Americans and Europeans after 15 years of use for breaking and polluting too much.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#257

Post by itsoktocry » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

btbuildem wrote: post #236

I don't see this raised anywhere -- but what's so bad about producing fewer cars (the poor neglected shareholders and exec bonuses aside)? It's almost as if we would need to lean into this, reducing growth and producing fewer cars would be in line with efforts to mitigate the drivers of climate change. What if car manufacturers pivoted their KPIs and focused on making long-lasting, serviceable vehicles? Toyota is alr…

>It's almost as if we would need to lean into this, reducing growth and producing fewer cars would be in line with efforts to mitigate the drivers of climate change.

Newer cars pollute far less than old cars.

>What if car manufacturers pivoted their KPIs and focused on making long-lasting, serviceable vehicles?

They do make long-lasting, serviceable vehicles. Where have you been?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#258

Post by jameshart » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #187

neals wrote: post #160

Come on, we all know this problem and we all know the solution. It's probably red-circuits that we are talking about here. We've all been there: you have your yellow belts full of green-circuits, but the red ones are just so much more complex. You need to set up the entire oil production chain for that, which is tedious and you probably rushed it just 'get a few red circuits so I can get my electric furnace'... I say…

I'd laugh but then I saw this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28233436 . Yup, Factorio is a nice way to learn about supply chains. Unfortunately, like almost all videogames, it assumes the whole system is run by a benevolent dictator (i.e. the player). In real life, most of the complexity and most of the waste comes from the system being built incrementally and operated by great many parties in a mix of…

Think of biters as a metaphor for competitors, taxes, and regulatory compliance.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#259

Post by dingaling » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #51

dhbradshaw wrote: post #10

As a chip supplier, I'd be feeling a lot of pressure right now. In the short term you can squeeze and the tail can wag the dog for a bit. But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration.

> But longer term this opens the door wide open for new competitors in the market and / or vertical integration. Not really. Chip fabrication requires enormous upstart cost - IIRC, TSMC plans with something like 10-20 billion $ - and a lot of time, to the tune of three years at least ( https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2033 ). There are not many companies in the world who have that amount of cash lying around, and eve…

> There are not many companies in the world who have that amount of cash lying around

Which is why establishing a chip fab to me seems like an obvious national goal. It's a booming market with costs of entry that few private companies can afford, why not make it a national capability? Resilience and profitability in one package.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#260

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:06 PM UTC

didgeoridoo wrote: post #133

ghaff wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and might be more reliable in general Cars in, say, the 1960s were not "more reliable in general." It's not all semiconductor-related of course--they also rusted out quickly in areas that got snow--but 5 years/50K miles is about what you were looking at for vehicle lifetime. Also much lower fuel efficiency, to say nothing of lack of what we'd consider routine safety features today.

The many Cubans driving cars from pre-1959 would be surprised to hear this.

[deleted]