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End of the Line for Uber

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21–30 of 42 posts

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#21
post #5

Having done work for a few cab company owners, Uber never made sense. Many of these guys, the owners, probably make $75k in a great year - and Uber’s genius path to billions was to undercut them? Just image search “cab company owner” and see if you can find the billions.

I really just think the play on all these sorts of companies was just to get max amount of money in this era of intense amounts of dumb investor money before it dries up. The math on WeWork etc finding profitability never made sense. The investor money IS the end goal. I didn’t know things were already this bad for Uber. Looking like a big short on the stock would pay off nicely soon. I’ll leave that to the big guys.

> The investor money IS the end goal.

“But you said you would never betray our customers! —Yes, because the customer is the shareholder.” – You know it’s bad when the series Silicon Valley mocks one’s business model for a joke.

> The math on WeWork etc. finding profitability never made sense.

“Don’t worry, we lose on every unit but we make it up on the quantity.”

Yes, we were in a bubble. More seriously though, Kondratief cycles are very long cycles, 50+ years, and the phase II is land grab. Economics didn’t make sense because investors are betting that they can extort customers later on.

Example: If WeWork succeeded to make building management code as difficult as construction code, they could have evicted all companies who try to maintain their own workspace (“Too bad, he didn’t know every 4th extinguisher has to be blue to be seen in case of red light event”) and WeWork would have rented companies their own workspaces. For that, you need to both dominate and modify the legal framework to prevent small actors from giving birth.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#22

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

They will easily raise more money via debt or equity financing. There is no way they just collapse into bankruptcy. This article seems to dismiss how deep and liquid capital markets are today and easy it is to raise capital with even a sniff of cash flow..

> They will easily raise more money via debt or equity financing. There is no way they just collapse into bankruptcy.

> This article seems to dismiss how deep and liquid capital markets are today and easy it is to raise capital with even a sniff of cash flow..

I find it hard to share your optimisim in how easy it will be for them to raise more money. Regardless, my thought experiment was _if_ they go bankrupt, what happens then...

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#23

There's a kind of dance that happens in arguments about the post office where somebody points out that the USPS is actually profitable, absent its pension obligations, and then somebody else responds that, yeah, but they actually do have those pension obligations, so you can't erase them from the profitability calculation, but then somebody else argues that, sure, but the point is that it's not critical to the functi…

There's a lot of major interests out there that have essentially been at war with Uber from day 1. The cab driver's unions in different cities primarily. All of these interests want nothing more than to see Uber fail and will amplify any projections like these.

My simple question...if Yellow Cab can be profitable, what makes it so hard for Uber or Lyft to be profitable?

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#24
I find it fascinating that the gig economy makes sense. Business 101 is to find economies of scale. In the taxi business, cars are purchased in blocks, maintenance is centralized (and easy since the cars are all the same), gas prices are negotiated, insurance is negotiated. The gig economy pushes all those costs to the driver, who has to buy market rate gas, pay a high market rate for individual insurance, pay Joe the Scammer for repairs...

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#25

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

> My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market?

Which is why Microsoft will buy Uber, to keep up the illusion that Uber is a valuable property.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#26
post #14

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

I’ve wondered this because I’ve “just not understood how they can lose money.” I suppose during bankruptcy someone can buy their matchmaking tech and IP and relaunch without all that debt and overhead. Seems like a good target for someone to just run and pump cash out of as there should be a way to make money out of “market rate” * 15% fee for matchmaking. I mean taxis were profitable and this is just a better taxi a…

> I suppose during bankruptcy someone can buy their matchmaking tech and IP and relaunch without all that debt and overhead. Seems like a good target for someone to just run and pump cash out of as there should be a way to make money out of “market rate” * 15% fee for matchmaking.

I don't see that happening but do you have examples where that strategy has worked (in tech)?

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#27
post #14

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

I’ve wondered this because I’ve “just not understood how they can lose money.” I suppose during bankruptcy someone can buy their matchmaking tech and IP and relaunch without all that debt and overhead. Seems like a good target for someone to just run and pump cash out of as there should be a way to make money out of “market rate” * 15% fee for matchmaking. I mean taxis were profitable and this is just a better taxi a…

Matchmaking tech is likely cached A*. The rest is duplicated by mapbox and square.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#28

I find it fascinating that the gig economy makes sense. Business 101 is to find economies of scale. In the taxi business, cars are purchased in blocks, maintenance is centralized (and easy since the cars are all the same), gas prices are negotiated, insurance is negotiated. The gig economy pushes all those costs to the driver, who has to buy market rate gas, pay a high market rate for individual insurance, pay Joe th…

Push all your business risk to the least sophisticated party. Simple.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#29

Dupe: 7 days ago, 311 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28132830 Yesterday, 41 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28197691

Did you flag this thread? I find this idea so strange, that there can't be multiple conversations about the same topic on here. You do realize readership of online forums is global right? Some might have missed earlier threads or will miss this one. Your idea of 'dupe' fails because for whom it is a dupe depends on many factors, and all you're doing by flagging is stifling opportunities for organic conversations because they don't suit your browsing/reading habits. It's pretty frustrating. Please stop flagging and just scroll past next time, ok? It's ok if you don't wanna discuss this topic.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#30
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are talking about the owner of the whole cab company making 75k.

No, I don’t think so. That’s earnings for a single medallion. Cab companies might own hundreds if not thousands of medallions. For example, a single private equity firm owns about 4,000 New York medallions [0]. Most medallions are owned in pools by private firms. [0] https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/04/01/private...

Medallions sound like a truly bizarre and unfair system.

And if Uber operated exclusively in New York, we could accept they had a profitable-sounding business model: bypassing that system.

But given that Uber has expanded into many other cities and countries, 99% of which don't have medallions, it's pretty clear that merely bypassing the medallion system isn't their business model.

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