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End of the Line for Uber

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11–20 of 42 posts

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#11
post #5

Having done work for a few cab company owners, Uber never made sense. Many of these guys, the owners, probably make $75k in a great year - and Uber’s genius path to billions was to undercut them? Just image search “cab company owner” and see if you can find the billions.

> Just image search “cab company owner” and see if you can find the billions.

I keep getting all these photos of Michael Cohen

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#12
I dislike uber, but given that they have meant to gone bankrupt a number of times already, I'm not keen to bet against them anytime soon.

Yes, they should have disappeared in a normal world, but uber didn't because its backed by people with a fucktonne of cash, enough might to distort lots of things about it that should have really killed it years ago.

But then again, in a normal world, Tesla's stock price should be 5% of what it is now, given how much money they loose on making cars.

But we are where we are. I expect uber will thrash about for a number of years yet. However I suspect that if/when uber goes pop, it'll bring lots of tech stocks down with it.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#13

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

Grab is already leader in Asia, Uber is lacking in Indonesia.

The difference? You have the choice between paying through the app or not (like a prepaid regular taxi). Uber designed its system to look as if drivers were employees, so they will die with the concept of HR fraud they created, but prepaid transport apps will remain.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#14

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

I’ve wondered this because I’ve “just not understood how they can lose money.”

I suppose during bankruptcy someone can buy their matchmaking tech and IP and relaunch without all that debt and overhead. Seems like a good target for someone to just run and pump cash out of as there should be a way to make money out of “market rate” * 15% fee for matchmaking.

I mean taxis were profitable and this is just a better taxi algorithm since the automate the multiple drivers sharing a cab process.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#15
While I quite like this post and agree with many of it's points, hasn't this been posted here 2+ times already? And made the front-page each time?

We've had this discussion about this exact text already. Let's agree or disagree with it and move on. Time will tell if Doctorow is right or not, and we can all feel smug when we're proven right then.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#16
post #15

While I quite like this post and agree with many of it's points, hasn't this been posted here 2+ times already? And made the front-page each time? We've had this discussion about this exact text already. Let's agree or disagree with it and move on. Time will tell if Doctorow is right or not, and we can all feel smug when we're proven right then.

[deleted]

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#17
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a medallion owner can earn $75K per medallion per year, it seems there's a lot of possible value in trying to take $5-10K/year times the number of full-time medallion equivalents while avoiding the cost of buying the medallion and car [and maintaining the car] in the first place.

They are talking about the owner of the whole cab company making 75k.

No, I don’t think so. That’s earnings for a single medallion.

Cab companies might own hundreds if not thousands of medallions.

For example, a single private equity firm owns about 4,000 New York medallions [0].

Most medallions are owned in pools by private firms.

[0] https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/04/01/private...

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#18
post #5

Having done work for a few cab company owners, Uber never made sense. Many of these guys, the owners, probably make $75k in a great year - and Uber’s genius path to billions was to undercut them? Just image search “cab company owner” and see if you can find the billions.

I’m not sure which cab company owners you are thinking of, but the one I know is worth in the $XXm range from a major US city. Uber has hurt his business a lot, and he’s totally unwilling to acknowledge that maybe taxicab companies offering terrible experiences has something to do with it.

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#19

Given the numbers of this article, we should expect Uber to go bankrupt within the next two years or so. I'm fairly cynical and find it a reasonable prediction, but even if you don't agree with me, please play along. My question then is, when Uber goes bankrupt, what happens then? Would it spook the market? There are after all many other companies that have floated on investor capital. Would this sort of event be eno…

They will easily raise more money via debt or equity financing. There is no way they just collapse into bankruptcy.

This article seems to dismiss how deep and liquid capital markets are today and easy it is to raise capital with even a sniff of cash flow..

Re: End of the Line for Uber

#20
There's a kind of dance that happens in arguments about the post office where somebody points out that the USPS is actually profitable, absent its pension obligations, and then somebody else responds that, yeah, but they actually do have those pension obligations, so you can't erase them from the profitability calculation, but then somebody else argues that, sure, but the point is that it's not critical to the functioning of a mail delivery service that they have so many pension obligations and the point is that such a service could very well be profitable, so it's a little silly to say, "the USPS can't be profitable" when what you mean is that any organization similarly saddled with historical pension obligations couldn't be profitable. You're not really saying anything interesting about mail delivery, in other words.

I feel like there's something similar happening here. It seems fairly clear that Uber's currently structured around burning a bunch of money, but...burning that money isn't critical to the functioning of a rideshare business.

People are just kind of talking past one another on this, I think.

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