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Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

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Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#31

Post by petercooper »

roel_v wrote: post #7
Legion wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Different culture. Different daily life transportation realities.

This is claimed very often. I did some very basic research here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2766844 (in a related discussion). In short, I don't see a substantial reason to believe that Americans drive all that more than Europeans do, and certainly not enough to say that the US switch to electric would happen significantly below the current gas price in Europe. (there may be other factors - Americans' genera…

Along similar lines: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2765874

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#32

Post by jdietrich »

Here in the UK, gas (petrol) is well over $8 per US gallon (£1.30 per litre) and has been for some time. It hasn't been less than 79p a litre for nearly a decade. Most hybrid and electric cars are bought for use in London, where they are exempt from the $16 per day charge to drive into the city centre. I live in a large (>2 million population) city in the north of England and have never seen an electric car here.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#33

Post by fab13n »

There are many places where prices are higher than that, I would have liked them to explain why those places don't have electric cars.

As a concrete example, nowadays a liter of gaz is at about EUR1.50 in France. That's 1.50 EUR/L * 3.8 L/gal * 1.43 USD/EUR = 8.2 USD/gal.

Of course people drive less here: cities are less car-friendly, public transportation is more developed, and when choosing a house, people take transportation to work/shops/leisure into account. But there is virtually no electric car, despite significant tax breaks and nuclear electricity at 0.10 EUR/KWh.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#34

Post by tansey »

khafra wrote: post #19
roc wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "100 miles ... will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs." Most Americans commute 30 miles per day. 100 miles per day covers something like three quarters of all drivers. Range anxiety is a largely psychological concern; it has little to do with actual needs.

Renting a car sucks. I would not want to do that once every month, which is about how often I drive over 100 miles. Services like Zipcar will be strongly complementary goods to electric cars.

> Renting a car sucks.

Now that I don't quite understand. I find renting a car to be a lot of fun. The salespeople are always super friendly, they get you in and out quick, the price is relatively low (~$70/day after taxes), and you usually get to drive a brand new model.

Maybe doing it once per month would be a headache for some. Personally, I like it and if it saved me money to drive an electric car, I would happily take this deal.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#35

Post by khafra »

tansey wrote: post #34
khafra wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renting a car sucks. I would not want to do that once every month, which is about how often I drive over 100 miles. Services like Zipcar will be strongly complementary goods to electric cars.

> Renting a car sucks. Now that I don't quite understand. I find renting a car to be a lot of fun. The salespeople are always super friendly, they get you in and out quick, the price is relatively low (~$70/day after taxes), and you usually get to drive a brand new model. Maybe doing it once per month would be a headache for some. Personally, I like it and if it saved me money to drive an electric car, I would happil…

It's fun, if you're on a trip and have a lot of time. But as a semi-regular thing:

- I have to drive to the car rental place unless I live close enough for a pickup, in which case I have to wait around to be picked up.

- I have to arrange my trip so that I both depart and return during the rental place's hours. If I come back late, I have to pay a penalty and either take time off from work the next morning or drive the rented car a whole extra day.

- Unless I rent from a 24-hour airport location, which is usually twice as expensive and does not do pick-ups, so I also have to pay to park my electric car at the airport.

etc. Essentially, it's just not good for routine use.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#37

Post by hugh3 »

khafra wrote: post #35
tansey wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Renting a car sucks. Now that I don't quite understand. I find renting a car to be a lot of fun. The salespeople are always super friendly, they get you in and out quick, the price is relatively low (~$70/day after taxes), and you usually get to drive a brand new model. Maybe doing it once per month would be a headache for some. Personally, I like it and if it saved me money to drive an electric car, I would happil…

It's fun, if you're on a trip and have a lot of time. But as a semi-regular thing: - I have to drive to the car rental place unless I live close enough for a pickup, in which case I have to wait around to be picked up. - I have to arrange my trip so that I both depart and return during the rental place's hours. If I come back late, I have to pay a penalty and either take time off from work the next morning or drive t…

Heh. I live within walking distance of an Avis and a Hertz, so perhaps my perspective is different.

Most rental places will let you drop the car off after hours, though, for what that's worth.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#38

Post by MaysonL »

ph0rque wrote: post #16
iqster wrote: post #6

I don't understand why electricity must be generated at charging stations. "Electric charing stations must have charging equipment, generate their own electricity and have the capacity to distribute a lot of electricity." IMHO, the lack of a reasonable solution to the gas-station (err ... fill station?) problem is the key problem here. I was at the NYC auto show and saw the charging solutions for the Volt. They all s…

I've also encountered the idea of swapping batteries at the fill station. This idea has a lot of problems too but probably gives the best end user experience. You're probably thinking of a startup called http://www.betterplace.com . I wonder what their analysis on gas prices would be to come to the continental US (their strategy right now is to go for densely populated areas).

They just opened their first battery switching station in Denmark, of 20 they plan to open there in the next year.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#39

Post by kragen »

crikli wrote: post #9

There is precedent, sorta, in aviation: 100LL hit $4.50 a couple years back and is now between $5-$8. Cessna started developing an electric 172 in 2010: http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-elect... I say "sorta" because it's not an industry-wide movement.

I think the energy economics are different for planes and cars, though. There's no equivalent of regenerative braking, or for that matter stop-and-go traffic, for planes.

And adding weight to a car doesn't make it use more energy at high speeds, which is how an old van can get 15 miles per gallon while a fully loaded semi truck gets 10 miles per gallon. Adding weight to a plane does make it use more energy. The effect of adding weight is relevant because batteries weigh almost 500 times as much per joule as fuel does.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#40

Post by ansy »

roc wrote: post #15
americandesi333 wrote: post #14

This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric cars. I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon... I would have gladly purchased a electric car. Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 mile…

> "100 miles ... will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs." Most Americans commute 30 miles per day. 100 miles per day covers something like three quarters of all drivers. Range anxiety is a largely psychological concern; it has little to do with actual needs.

Note that 100 miles is the ideal range under ideal conditions. Consumer Reports did some preliminary driving tests [1] of the Nissan Leaf and found in extreme cold they barely got 8 miles of range on a full charge in 10 degree (F) weather. Typically they were seeing an average of 65 miles in 20-30 degree (F) weather. This is probably why the 2012 model will come with a built-in battery heater that keeps it warm while charging.

So I would definitely not recommend the Leaf unless you live in Hawaii or California. I believe range is also compromised in extreme heat as well. Basically, you've got to live in paradise to expect a 100 mile range year-round from the Leaf.

[1] http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/01/second-drive-20...

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