Anecdotally CalTRain ridership picks up at around $4.25/gal. more or less. So, it's possible they are on to something. Next car I get, I would like to get a hybrid --to insure [hedge] against future gas price increases, rather than a way to save now.
Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
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Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#12In Sao Paulo[BR] gas price hit US$5.5/gall a couple of years ago, and I just spotted 5 electric cars in my life, I know we're are so called emergent but Sao Paulo is more similar to some american metropoles than anything in europe or even US.
Our "cheap" alternatine, sugar cane Ethanol it's costing US$4.39/gall. I just filled my VW with gas today and it cost me US$7.20/gall.
Mankind will adopt alternatives as soon we drain global reserves.
I did all conversions because we buy gas in litters
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#13I paid $4.53/gallon for diesel in Boston yesterday, so I guess we're all good to go on the electrics. (I bought a diesel instead, which does get great mileage.)
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#14This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric cars.
I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon... I would have gladly purchased a electric car.
Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 miles before it needs to be charged. This makes it a difficult substitute for a regular gasoline car because it will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs.
Therefore, for this prediction to hold true, its important to have enough viable options in market.
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#15This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric cars. I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon... I would have gladly purchased a electric car. Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 mile…
> "100 miles ... will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs."
Most Americans commute 30 miles per day. 100 miles per day covers something like three quarters of all drivers. Range anxiety is a largely psychological concern; it has little to do with actual needs.
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#16I don't understand why electricity must be generated at charging stations. "Electric charing stations must have charging equipment, generate their own electricity and have the capacity to distribute a lot of electricity." IMHO, the lack of a reasonable solution to the gas-station (err ... fill station?) problem is the key problem here. I was at the NYC auto show and saw the charging solutions for the Volt. They all s…
I've also encountered the idea of swapping batteries at the fill station. This idea has a lot of problems too but probably gives the best end user experience.
You're probably thinking of a startup called http://www.betterplace.com . I wonder what their analysis on gas prices would be to come to the continental US (their strategy right now is to go for densely populated areas).
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
Different culture. Different daily life transportation realities.
This is claimed very often. I did some very basic research here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2766844 (in a related discussion). In short, I don't see a substantial reason to believe that Americans drive all that more than Europeans do, and certainly not enough to say that the US switch to electric would happen significantly below the current gas price in Europe. (there may be other factors - Americans' genera…
This supports your view: http://www.bsfrey.ch/articles/456_07.pdf
Suggests that the the average US commute time is comparable to Germany's (48 vs 42 minutes). Germany's time has an SD of 19 minutes.
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#18In Sao Paulo[BR] gas price hit US$5.5/gall a couple of years ago, and I just spotted 5 electric cars in my life, I know we're are so called emergent but Sao Paulo is more similar to some american metropoles than anything in europe or even US. Our "cheap" alternatine, sugar cane Ethanol it's costing US$4.39/gall. I just filled my VW with gas today and it cost me US$7.20/gall. Mankind will adopt alternatives as soon we…
litres, buy gas in litres ...
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#19This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric cars. I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon... I would have gladly purchased a electric car. Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 mile…
> "100 miles ... will not be able to satisfy most Americans driving needs." Most Americans commute 30 miles per day. 100 miles per day covers something like three quarters of all drivers. Range anxiety is a largely psychological concern; it has little to do with actual needs.
Renting a car sucks. I would not want to do that once every month, which is about how often I drive over 100 miles.
Services like Zipcar will be strongly complementary goods to electric cars.
Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall
#20I don't understand why electricity must be generated at charging stations. "Electric charing stations must have charging equipment, generate their own electricity and have the capacity to distribute a lot of electricity." IMHO, the lack of a reasonable solution to the gas-station (err ... fill station?) problem is the key problem here. I was at the NYC auto show and saw the charging solutions for the Volt. They all s…
I also don't understand the need for charging stations to generate their own electricity. I do, however, think the way which electric cars are filled/charged will be fundamentally different than how our current automobiles are filled with gasoline. I think every time an electric car is parked, it will be plugged in, either to charge or to send power back to the grid. Perhaps the net metering part is what they meant by the ability of stations to generate their own power. I think "stations" will be ubiquitous, with outlets in most major parking lots. This scenario still doesn't help people who want to take long road trips on their electric vehicle but it does cover most use cases.