Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall • Hacker News Board

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#21

Post by roshangry » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:33 PM UTC

americandesi333 wrote: post #14

This prediction only holds true if the market has enough viable options of electric cars. As for now, Tesla and Nissan are the only two all electric cars. I just purchased a diesel car and diesel fuel IS at around $4.40 per gallon... I would have gladly purchased a electric car. Tesla's price point is too high and their lower priced model is still a little ways away from release. Nissan Leaf can run only for 100 mile…

Ford will have an all-electric Focus available soon. I think automakers are gearing up for significant hybrid/electric vehicle demand.

http://green.autoblog.com/2011/01/10/ford-vp-electric-drive-...

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#22

Post by grannyg00se » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:37 PM UTC

A culture shift away from daily transportation of individuals would be much more significant than going electric. I'm all for a reasonable all electric alternative (I'm thinking motorcycle) but the reality is that until we stop having so many people traveling back and forth every day we aren't going to get away from the energy demand that such transportation requires.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#23

Post by ableal » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:39 PM UTC

ralfd wrote: post #3

Oh really? The current gasoline price in Germany is around 1.588 Euro per liter which is 6.01 Euro per gallon (stupid imperial unit) or glorious 8,57 Dollar. Still no electric cars.

The press has been drumming it up for the Opel Ampera (european badge of the Chevy Volt), but I don't think they're being delivered yet. My local Opel site has a configurator (mostly paint job ;-) with prices (over 40k euro).

Bumped into an interesting tidbit: an official blog post claiming 80% energy recuperation in the regenerative braking system http://opel-ampera.com/wp_en/2011/07/21/maximal-recuperation...

The other posts in the blog indicate that it's in the "presentation to the press" stage this month.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#24

Post by untog » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:42 PM UTC

crikli wrote: post #9

There is precedent, sorta, in aviation: 100LL hit $4.50 a couple years back and is now between $5-$8. Cessna started developing an electric 172 in 2010: http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-elect... I say "sorta" because it's not an industry-wide movement.

There's a sorta precedent in countries other than the US. Gas in the UK costs at least $9 per gallon, and there hasn't been a huge shift to electric cars: http://www.roadtransport.com/blogs/road-freight-industry-ann... (that link is for businesses only, but if anyone had an incentive...)

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#25

Post by Geee » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:48 PM UTC

iqster wrote: post #6

I don't understand why electricity must be generated at charging stations. "Electric charing stations must have charging equipment, generate their own electricity and have the capacity to distribute a lot of electricity." IMHO, the lack of a reasonable solution to the gas-station (err ... fill station?) problem is the key problem here. I was at the NYC auto show and saw the charging solutions for the Volt. They all s…

Lithium-titanate battery can be charged in 10min@250kW according to E-RA specs: http://www.raceabout.fi/era/

They have somewhat smaller capacity than conventional lithium-ion though.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#26

Post by kayoone » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:53 PM UTC

ralfd wrote: post #3

Oh really? The current gasoline price in Germany is around 1.588 Euro per liter which is 6.01 Euro per gallon (stupid imperial unit) or glorious 8,57 Dollar. Still no electric cars.

yeah, wanted to write exactly that. US citizen cry about gasoline prices while most europeans already pay around $8 per gallon. Different driving habits ? Different studies show thats not true (posted in the comments here as well)

Still i dont see electric cars becoming mainstream in the near future

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#27

Post by rysulliv » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 5:54 PM UTC

grannyg00se wrote: post #22

A culture shift away from daily transportation of individuals would be much more significant than going electric. I'm all for a reasonable all electric alternative (I'm thinking motorcycle) but the reality is that until we stop having so many people traveling back and forth every day we aren't going to get away from the energy demand that such transportation requires.

I completely agree. I think what we really need is some rethinking and innovating ideas on public transportation. I know that is a vague concept to a lot of American's that live in cities other than NYC and maybe Chicago and a few others, but it is a solution that works in other areas of the world. We have some obstacles to get it to work here for sure, but good old American ingenuity can surely solve those can't they?

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#28

Post by jcslzr » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 6:01 PM UTC

Has any of you seen "Collapse"?

Its a Documentary, and in it this guy states that there is no realistic substitution for oil, and once we run out of it society will collapse.

Pretty scary.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#29

Post by newmediaclay » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 6:02 PM UTC

I don't think it makes sense to term this prediction in price of gas. Even as they say in the study, one of the most weighted factors in a purchasing decision is the number of charging stations available. It's the cart and the horse, even if gas is $5/gallon, consumers won't be super motivated to buy cars b/c of a lack of charging stations, and charging stations won't be built due to a lack of existing demand.

These things need to happen together to make the change, not just the gas price hike. Like others have alluded to, there needs to be more of a cultural shift or incentives from the government.

I think it makes sense to do this study with more focus on number of charging stations or public/private investment in the space rather than gas price.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#30

Post by rajpaul » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 6:04 PM UTC

ralfd wrote: post #3

Oh really? The current gasoline price in Germany is around 1.588 Euro per liter which is 6.01 Euro per gallon (stupid imperial unit) or glorious 8,57 Dollar. Still no electric cars.

In the part of Canada I live in it's $1.33/liter, which is $5.00/gallon.

I don't see a rush to buy electric cars here. But smaller cars are more popular in Canada compared to the USA. For example, smart fortwo was introduced in Canada four years before it came to the USA. It's rare a product comes to Canada before the USA.

Americans don't have to go from gas to electric. They can go from gas guzzler to gas sipper.