It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record • Hacker News Board

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#361

Post by black6 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:40 PM UTC

lhorie wrote: post #14

SimeVidas wrote: post #9

What was the previous record?

FTA: > the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago. It was 0.02 of a degree F (0.01 of a degree C) higher than the previous record set in July 2016, which was then tied in 2019 and 2020

What's the error on that measurement? I have a hard time believing that the +- on global mean temperature is less than 0.02 degF.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#362

Post by ajross » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:40 PM UTC

xwdv wrote: post #275

ajross wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Life" will adapt. Ecosystems won't. It really sounds like you're expressing your feelings about a likely mass extinction event as "shit happens, what're you gonna do?"

Ecosystems are just a large collection of “Life”.

I don't know where you're going with this. No, that's wrong, they are separate concepts. There was "life" 320M years ago just like there is today. But the carboniferous forest mats that we saw then spanned the globe, with trees growing on tens of millions of years of their undecomposed ancestors. It was an entirely different environment, and we'll never see it again now that bacteria evolved the ability to digest lignin.

Closer to home, there is "life" on the deep ocean floor today. And most of it has evolved to exploit the oxygenated water of the environment, which is fed by an arctic downwelling off of Greenland (yes, all deep ocean water is fed from a "spigot" in just one place).

Well, guess what, with the reduction in ice cover over the last decade or so and the increases in temperature expected to accelerate that process, that downwelling is collapsing. All those ocean floor ecosystems are going extinct within the next thousand years, and it's probably too late to save them.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#363

Post by lp251 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:40 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #212

orf wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not the act itself, it’s the fact that there is a segment of the population that will spend thousands of dollars to modify their cars to pollute more, so that they can try and humiliate people driving hybrid and electric cars. That’s a symptom of a much, much deeper problem.

> so that they can try and humiliate people driving hybrid and electric cars I don't think that's really what they're trying to do. It looks more like garden variety virtue signaling. Just like flags in the back of the truck, etc. They're announcing membership in their tribe. I do wish they'd choose something that didn't pollute the air we all breathe.

Dunno, they sure are eager to roll coal when they pass cyclists (myself included). Really cool people.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#364

Post by lucky_cloud » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:41 PM UTC

throwitaway1235 wrote: post #208

What year does NOAA choose as the beginning for "record"? It's relevant to the discussion. Earth is 4.5 billion years old. Humans have existed for 200,000 years. This all comes off as political or quasi-religious because I can assure you that the author knows average people will read that headline and assume "begining of time". Hence I call bullshit.

You read the headline yourself and went off asking a dumb question that's answered in the article.

'On record' implies 'since we started keeping records' and that length of time is specifically stated in the article.

The headline isn't "July was Earth’s hottest month ever" - that's the clickbait headline that would justify your reaction.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#365

Post by anyfoo » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:41 PM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #295

tstrimple wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It sometimes seems the more data we have the more gloom and doom we get. Ignorance really is bliss isn't it?

Well to be contrarian: lies, damn lies and statistics...the scholarly arguments about the extent to which man is influencing our climate and the extent to which natural cycles and space weather are far more important is essentially a data war. Both sides have a plethora of data and statistics to make their case. I do wonder and worry about the damage this 'you did it' alarmism is very negatively affecting the human p…

I really, honestly wish the people believing it's not a big issue were right. Sadly, that does not appear the case.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#366

Post by dprice1 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:41 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #288

orf wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok then, people spending thousands of dollars to make their cars less fuel efficient and pollute more. It’s the same point. That doesn’t exist anywhere else in the world. It’s ridiculous. But the fact it exists in the country with the largest per-person capita of CO2 emissions points to a huge underlying social problem that is unlikely to be fixed in the near future.

>But the fact it exists in the country with the largest per-person capita of CO2 emissions I have a feeling that you're not talking about all the people rolling coal in Palau. US isn't even in the top 10 when it comes to carbon emissions per capita. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...

> US isn't even in the top 10 when it comes to carbon emissions per capita

I think you are correct when we use this very narrow measure. However, please see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_th...

The US is (a) among largest polluters and (b) from that club it is up at or near the top of per-capita pollution. Quoting the article:

The United States produced 6.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2019,[3] the second largest in the world after greenhouse gas emissions by China and among the countries with the highest greenhouse gas emissions per person. In 2019 China is estimated to have emitted 27% of world GhG, followed by the United States with 11%, then India with 6.6%.[4] In total the United States has emitted 400 billion metric tons, more than any other country.[5] This is over 15 tonnes per person and, amongst the top ten emitters, is the second highest country by greenhouse gas emissions per person after Canada.[6] Because coal-fired power stations are gradually shutting down, in the 2010s emissions from electricity generation fell to second place behind transportation which is now the largest single source.[7] In 2019, 29% of the GHG emissions of the United States were from transportation, 25% from electricity, 23% from industry, 13% from commercial and residential buildings and 10% from agriculture.[8]

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#367

Post by adam_arthur » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:41 PM UTC

Any policy should be evaluated on the basis of costs and benefits. Too much of the conversation on global warming is either broadly dismissive or exasperatingly alarmist.

Fundamentally policy changes to curb global warming will have economic consequence, those of which will be borne disproportionately by the poor. E.g. efforts to curb oil and coal extraction will naturally result in the price of energy going up.

I can tell you it makes no difference to me if gas is 3 or 4 dollars a gallon, but it matters a lot to those who live paycheck to paycheck. And especially to those impoverished and living in emerging markets.

Im not suggesting a specific policy course of action (at least in this comment), but we'd be a lot better off if there was more of an effort to quantify impact of action/inaction using real numbers.

Temperature is projected to be X by year Y (we have varying projections of this), and the cost to humanity is Z.

What level of economic sacrifice is justified to address this and how much should we frontload that effort?

Should the poor bear the largest burden, or should we normalize the cost somehow? (Energy subsidy, remittances to emerging economies to use cleaner energy)

I have no doubt people have run these numbers, but I don't see the connection being made to specific policy proposals.

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#368

Post by actually_a_dog » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:41 PM UTC

bobbylarrybobby wrote: post #177

eli wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Humans didn't cause it so it's not our problem" has gotta be the weirdest take. No... it's definitely a problem either way.

Same thing with covid. "The China Virus is sent from China so we shouldn't have to deal with it because it's not our fault". Oh, had the virus arisen naturally in the US, we could fight it, but because it's (supposedly) an act of Chinese biological warfare, we should just take it lying down? I don't get people.

People were actually saying we shouldn't have to deal with covid because it came from China? In what world does that make the tiniest lick of sense?

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#369

Post by bpodgursky » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:41 PM UTC

Jtsummers wrote: post #354

bpodgursky wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, sure, it's dumb, but choosing to take a weekend flight to Vail to hit the slopes emits more carbon than a year of rolling coal, and nobody is seriously trying to crack down on recreational travel. I think the deeper problem is that even "concerned" people have emissions deeply baked into their lifestyles but don't realize it because they check all the right cosmetic boxes.

I think you missed GP's point. Rolling coal itself is not the problem, but it is indicative of a larger systemic and cultural problem. When people are willing to deliberately pollute their local environment to "stick it to the man" or whatever, then there are a lot of other policies and changes that they will never consider or support. And a lot of other, more impactful, actions that they are likely to participate in…

Yes, and I'm not sure it's worse than the people who think they've already done enough (but in practice have comparable emissions to those who don't care).

Re: It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

#370

Post by jdavis703 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:42 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #256

SigmundA wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have never been able to get my head around the religious paradox of God has a plan and free will. Can we make choices that effect the outcome of things or is it all part of Gods plan? It can't be both right? Did God create everything including free will or does it exist outside of his control? I don't blame my program when it does something wrong, I mean I wrote the code that tells it how to behave.

It is extremely hard for people who are working on facts based stuff to get their heads wrapped around people who are religious, let alone those who are religious and who are working on facts based stuff at the same time (there are plenty of those). Suffice to say that it is very well possible to have different 'modes' of operations, where one moment you are fact based and the next you are belief based. So when you a…

> It is extremely hard for people who are working on facts based stuff to get their heads wrapped around people who are religious, let alone those who are religious and who are working on facts based stuff at the same time (there are plenty of those).

It is also hard for religious people to wrap their heads around facts and certainty. Before I was atheist I would debate Christians on the merits of theistic evolution vs. intelligent design. Intelligent design proponents will literally accuse Christians who believe differently of blasphemy.

My mom even lost a science teaching job over something more minor. She was unwilling to say with 100% certainty if the story of creation happened in 7 contiguous days, or may have happened over 7 non-contiguous days. While she believed it was most likely 7 contiguous days she didn’t have enough evidence to be sure.