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How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

nature.com

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Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#11

Post by vsef »

InvertedRhodium wrote: post #9
mattkrause wrote: post #7

In vaccinated people who become infected . Since the vaccines cause fewer people to be infected, the unconditional viral load is lower.

Wait, I thought the general consensus is that the current vaccines reduce the severity of the infection but provide little defense against contacting and spreading it? At least, this has been used to explain why infection rates are still increasing even among vaccinated populations.

No, the consensus is that they reduce severity but also protect against contracting, just at lower efficacy rate than against earlier variants. They still reduce cases versus not having them.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#12

Post by didibus »

InvertedRhodium wrote: post #9
mattkrause wrote: post #7

In vaccinated people who become infected . Since the vaccines cause fewer people to be infected, the unconditional viral load is lower.

Wait, I thought the general consensus is that the current vaccines reduce the severity of the infection but provide little defense against contacting and spreading it? At least, this has been used to explain why infection rates are still increasing even among vaccinated populations.

I haven't checked in a while, but does the data show that the efficacy against delta is less than the 90% we thought the vaccines were going to be?

I mean, we all knew some vaccinated people would still get Covid, about 10% of them, so do we know that there is a higher number of breakthrough cases than even that?

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#13

Post by dabfiend19 »

didibus wrote: post #12
InvertedRhodium wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, I thought the general consensus is that the current vaccines reduce the severity of the infection but provide little defense against contacting and spreading it? At least, this has been used to explain why infection rates are still increasing even among vaccinated populations.

I haven't checked in a while, but does the data show that the efficacy against delta is less than the 90% we thought the vaccines were going to be? I mean, we all knew some vaccinated people would still get Covid, about 10% of them, so do we know that there is a higher number of breakthrough cases than even that?

sure we did. that ~90% number came before the south African variant, and many others. that's arguably why the j&j had a much lower rate than Pfizer, as it was tested amongst test pools with different variants circulating.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#14

Post by klipt »

kaczordon wrote: post #3
nanis wrote: post #2

> vaccinated people who become infected with Delta SARS-CoV-2 can carry as much virus in their nose as do unvaccinated people. This means that despite the protection offered by vaccines, a proportion of vaccinated people can pass on Delta, possibly aiding its rise. Which seems in line with I had speculated about earlier[1]. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28003932

It looks like viral load diminishes faster which is a plus. However, I’d be willing to bet that almost all transmission happens when people are at their peak viral load. And so if peak viral loads are not differing between vaccinated and unvaccinated I’d guess we’re pretty much going to see unabated transmission amongst vaccinated.

At this point are the symptoms among vaccinated people any worse than other common colds?

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#15

Post by musha68k »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #8

At least we can protect ourselves now, N95s are available, vaccines are available, this is very different than a year ago.

Not true for very young children though, we can only protect them by proxy (us/others wearing masks plus social distancing).

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#16

Post by rejectedandsad »

musha68k wrote: post #15
mensetmanusman wrote: post #8

At least we can protect ourselves now, N95s are available, vaccines are available, this is very different than a year ago.

Not true for very young children though, we can only protect them by proxy (us/others wearing masks plus social distancing).

Children are not at risk like adults are.

I say get back to normal and let the unvaccinated adults suffer the consequences of their own actions.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#17

Post by kaczordon »

mattkrause wrote: post #10
InvertedRhodium wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, I thought the general consensus is that the current vaccines reduce the severity of the infection but provide little defense against contacting and spreading it? At least, this has been used to explain why infection rates are still increasing even among vaccinated populations.

They're certainly less effective vs variants, but I haven't seen any convincing data suggesting that vaccines are totally ineffective against them. In fact, the article also quotes one of the authors as saying: "The bottom line is, this can happen — it can be true that vaccinated people can spread the virus. But we do not yet know what their relative role in overall community spread is."

Looks like against delta the vaccines could have as low as 39% efficacy against preventing symptomatic COVID.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-v...

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#19

Post by HWR_14 »

dabfiend19 wrote: post #13
didibus wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't checked in a while, but does the data show that the efficacy against delta is less than the 90% we thought the vaccines were going to be? I mean, we all knew some vaccinated people would still get Covid, about 10% of them, so do we know that there is a higher number of breakthrough cases than even that?

sure we did. that ~90% number came before the south African variant, and many others. that's arguably why the j&j had a much lower rate than Pfizer, as it was tested amongst test pools with different variants circulating.

> that's arguably why the j&j had a much lower rate than Pfizer, as it was tested amongst test pools with different variants circulating.

J&J was tested in populations that didn't have the SA variant, and Pfizer was tested in populations that did (in addition to the other combinations you mentioned). Tests were done worldwide and we had natural experiments due to different tests in different time in different (relatively) isolated populations.

That effect exists, but only covers a small percentage of the difference in efficacy.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#20

Post by musha68k »

rejectedandsad wrote: post #16
musha68k wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true for very young children though, we can only protect them by proxy (us/others wearing masks plus social distancing).

Children are not at risk like adults are. I say get back to normal and let the unvaccinated adults suffer the consequences of their own actions.

Unfortunately there is increasingly more data that shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not benign in children.

For example this rather early analysis from 2020 included more than 2,000 children who got infected. 10.6% of infants under 1 year of age had severe or critical symptoms. All of these infants survived but a small number of infants in the United States have died following diagnosis with COVID-19 even then before Delta (or even Lambda and other variants).

https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/ea...

I have rolled too many d10 not to worry a lot about this.

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