Live data from Hacker News

Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

cell.com

171–180 of 222 posts

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While they may stimulate some B and T, they aren’t close to the levels from infection. From what I’ve seen many coronavirus have durable immunity from infection, you’d need to cite that they vary. Also, from what I’ve seen the T and B cell response is not nearly the same effect, nor as durable. Further, like the Israeli report, there are a handful more reports of previously infected not getting reinfected at nearly t…

I think you added the links in an edit? The Science cite shows something that's very different than what people might take from your comment. Briefly, prior infection plus one mRNA dose induces a very good immune response, much better than a single dose without prior infection. It does not compare two mRNA doses against prior infection. I believe the cite I provided does support the idea that coronaviruses vary, in p…

The idea that two mRNA dose immunity is superior on average to those recovered with natural immunity is absurd. I haven’t reviewed your sources yet, but if you have such a source then you are cherry picking among numerous other results that disagree. Antibody levels can be lower but effective protection against re-infection is very high because memory cells can generate antibodies on demand. Natural antibodies target numerous areas of the virus and are more resilient to variants. Additionally recovered individuals who receive an mRNA dose have the highest levels of measured antibodies.

Why are you trying to arguing something that is clearly false? Do you have a political objective of some sort?

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#172
post #19

Its important to keep studies like this in mind when talking with people who refuse to take the vaccine because they "already had COVID". In a very real sense, if natural antibodies are durable, persistent, and effective; the vaccine is an unnecessary medical procedure. Doctors would not cut off your legs for no reason; that would be unethical. The vaccine is a medical procedure like any other; if the benefit is ques…

I know this thread is catnip for the antivax contingent that reliably appears, but this argument has several problems. First, our vaccines provide a stronger immune response than infection, as has been well documented by now[1]. Vaccination on top of prior infection boosts the response[2]. Second, the harm from the vaccine is minimal, and comparing it with an amputation is ridiculous (in spite of the large number of…

Why are you intentionally misleading people with dis-information.

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#173
post #19

Its important to keep studies like this in mind when talking with people who refuse to take the vaccine because they "already had COVID". In a very real sense, if natural antibodies are durable, persistent, and effective; the vaccine is an unnecessary medical procedure. Doctors would not cut off your legs for no reason; that would be unethical. The vaccine is a medical procedure like any other; if the benefit is ques…

Comparing it to an amputation is beyond ridiculous. If you have to make leaps of logic like this, you know your argument is extremely weak.

You're right; its a ridiculous comparison.

The risks of amputation are relatively well-known and understood.

The risks, especially long-term, of mass, imperfect vaccination, using an entirely brand new development technology; not well known. Not understood. Are there long-term, rare side-effects of the vaccine we don't know about? Will the imperfect nature of the vaccine and its rollout cause wider evolution of vaccine-resistant coronaviruses? We don't know.

Its a ridiculous comparison because one of these things is dangerous; the other has unquantified risk.

That's why "First, Do No Harm" is such an important foundation of medical ethics. We are dealing with systems more complex than you can even imagine; between the human body, multi-human interactions, and planet-scale resource allocation during a pandemic. There is a LOT we don't know.

This doesn't mean you shouldn't get vaccinated. I have. Many people should. The benefits are well-known and understood; they're pretty strong. But it does mean, maybe there's a middleground we need to find which doesn't involve demonizing and ostracizing the people who choose not to. We should be better at understanding each-other, and understanding how dangerous unknown risks can be, especially when we're put into a position of making decisions out of fear.

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#174
post #31

Immunity persists for a while but doesn’t seem to stop the new variants. Another study shows that re-infection with Covid is a lot more likely in unvaccinated people than in vaccinated.

Data from Israel shows that vaccinated people have a 6.72 times higher chance to get infected than previously infected people: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762

Do you have a moderately credible source on this? The linked is pushing a radical right-wing hard-line anti-vaccine agenda too hard to be considered remotely credible or trustworthy. It also does not link to primary sources.

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#175
If twenty percent of the population has had covid, and fifty percent has been vaccinated, say we assume half of the twenty percent isn’t an overlap. Wouldn’t that put us much closer to the herd immunity number of seventy percent than we’ve been thinking? And that if infections continue at a high pace, shouldn’t we reach that level very soon?

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me very reasonable to worry about long-term outcomes when we are talking about vaccinating every man woman child. Maybe its got precedence but damn if its not worrying, and honest skepticism ought to be treated with respect not derided.

I'm not deriding the honest worry. Nobody can know with certainty anything about the future. I'm worrying about the paralyzing effects of a meme that says that since it's technically possible for an adverse affect to happen at an arbitrary point in the future, we cannot consider an option to curb the effects of a known problem we have right now. Often I'm accused of dismissing the possibility of adverse effects like…

I will try to answer your questions from my point of view.

It appears "off" that there is no nuance to this vaccination strategy. It seems especially odd to advocate for vaccinating children who stand to benefit very little personally. I had planned to get vaccinated but have been pretty concerned by the totalitarian vibes I've been getting lately. So I guess I've decided to let my civics slide to match. I will get the vaccine for my own personal benefit (if I deem it so) and I expect that is basically what's motivated everyone else anyway. So far I've not seen a clear benefit to me. According to this page https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/ these are my stats:

"probability of catching COVID-19 through community transmission in a week is 0.027%" "If you get sick from COVID-19, the risk of hospitalization is 1.3% , the risk of requiring an ICU is 0.67% , and the risk of not surviving is 0.053%"

If I tell the calculator I'm vaccinated then most those stats go down by 2 which is good but my threshold for action is on an absolute scale and staying unvaccinated does not trip the sensor.

I choose to live life in rural America in some part to avoid such calamities. As an unvaccinated person I am less of a risk to other people person than a vaccinated person in da big city.

To me personally the main issue has little to do with vaccines and more to do with frankly unnecessary (in some cases) overreach. I'm not saying overreach has happened already, but recent overtures are quite alarming to me.

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me very reasonable to worry about long-term outcomes when we are talking about vaccinating every man woman child. Maybe its got precedence but damn if its not worrying, and honest skepticism ought to be treated with respect not derided.

Reasonable skepticism should not be derided. But I would say (a) the skepticism is borderline, and (b) poor decision making is what is being derided. So why is the skepticism borderline? Well we have over 100 years of data showing that vaccines I’m general are safe and effective. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has drastically improved during that century - especially in the last 20 years. mRNA vaccines is a…

Yes we have plenty of data about past vaccines:

https://www.chop.edu/news/long-term-side-effects-covid-19-va...

"The history of vaccines shows that delayed effects following vaccination can occur. But when they do, these effects tend to happen within two months of vaccination: ..."

Whenever I show this kind of info to my family/friends that are against vaccines the response follow the three categories I posted earlier above.

I categorically do not want to make fun of anybody. I really want to understand either:

a) what's wrong about my understanding of the safety of this vaccination campaign (i.e. can really the world governments conspire so efficiently to hide the real data, or other arguments above)

Or is it just a big identity politics problem, where we all think we engage in a rational discussion while each of us has already taken a stance that we cannot be moved out with arguments? (I'm putting myself into question too)

b) how can I understand and reach my family members and friends and engage in a discussion that is not shut off quickly by one of the aforementioned unfalsifiable positions

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#178
post #151

This paper further supports the fact that naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is 1) robust and 2) durable. 1) Robust means the immune response recognizes many different parts of the virus. 2) Durable means the immune response remains detectable - and likely effective at protecting the individual - for a long period of time. A robust immune response is important because it provides a certain degree of protection…

Reference [1] is applicable to how our body handles an immune response to the viral infection in general: i.e. whether naturally acquired, or through controlled vaccination. Natural infections were, naturally focused upon, in order to understand the baseline dynamics of viral infection. Reference [2] is...it says just as much about the efficacy of vaccination as the efficacy of natural immunity: > The cumulative inci…

Are you trying to refute the claim that natural infection confers immunity that is at least equally as protective as vaccination?

It's not clear to me that you've presented any counter evidence. I will try to outline my thoughts on your comment to help the discussion.

[1] is another primary source beyond the OP that demonstrates the durability of the immune response from natural infection. We are in agreement that in principle the immune response from vaccination should also be durable due to relying on the same underlying mechanisms of the immune system - in fact I am unaware of any literature which demonstrates otherwise. So your point about [1] doesn't seem particularly relevant to me.

> Reference [2] is...it says just as much about the efficacy of vaccination as the efficacy of natural immunity

Yes you're right, and that is a relevant quote you pulled from the abstract. Again, I think we're actually in agreement here - the findings support my original claims.

> Read reference [3] to understand why natural immunity doesn't cut it. Note that widespread natural immunity causes the same positive selection pressure as widespread vaccine deployment

You seem to be missing the central thesis of [3], here are the relevant excerpts:

- "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control."

- "Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD?"

- "Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection."

- "The speed at which nAb resistance develops in the population increases substantially as the number of infected individuals increases, suggesting that complementary strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) or that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification) are key to reducing the risk of immune escape"

- "Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities"

We are in agreement [4] and [5] are not an indictment against vaccines - but again you seem to be missing the most important and highly relevant findings which support my claims.

For example from [4]:

- "The acquisition of the L452R substitution by multiple lineages across multiple continents, including the B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 lineages emerging in India (54), is suggestive of positive selection, which might result from the selective pressure of RBD-specific neutralizing Abs"

- "Our data support that the SARS-CoV-2 NTD evolved a compensatory mechanism to form an alternative disulfide bond and that mutations of the S signal peptide occur in vivo in a clinical setting to promote immune evasion."

- "Understanding the newly found mechanism of immune evasion in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as the signal peptide modification described herein, is as important as sequence surveillance itself to successfully counter the ongoing pandemic."

For example from [5]:

- "different individuals immunized with the Moderna (mRNA-1273) or Pfizer–BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccines produce closely related, and nearly identical, antibodies."

- "To avert selection and escape, antibody therapies should be composed of combinations of antibodies that target non-overlapping or highly conserved epitopes"

- "We speculate that these mutations emerged in response to immune selection in individuals with nonsterilizing immunity."

> Reference [6]...did you read it? It's about vaccines which protect the host(keep them alive), but still keep them infectious (capable of transmission). None of the COVID-19 vaccines do that...

You are incorrect - the current spike protein focused mRNA based vaccines do not guarantee sterilizing immunity - that means you can be vaccinated yet still get infected and transmit the virus to others. Please cite your sources if you're going to make such claims.

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#179

If twenty percent of the population has had covid, and fifty percent has been vaccinated, say we assume half of the twenty percent isn’t an overlap. Wouldn’t that put us much closer to the herd immunity number of seventy percent than we’ve been thinking? And that if infections continue at a high pace, shouldn’t we reach that level very soon?

The idea of being at or near herd immunity has been pushed so many times since the start of this pandemic, and each time those hopes have been dashed.

The threshold needed for herd immunity has been revised upward since the 70% figure was widely discussed. First, the R0 for the delta variant is almost certainly higher than for earlier variants. I am personally skeptical of claims in the 8 range, but they are widespread, especially by public health professionals, in contrast to, say, virologists, who tend to point to antigenic drift as a mechanism that could explain the rise in delta prevalence.

Also, vaccine effectiveness is a factor in the herd immunity threshold, and that is also reduced a bit off earlier high estimates, partly because of variants and partly because of antibody waning.

So my best guess is that herd immunity is now permanently out of reach. I'd love to be proved wrong on that, though.

Re: Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

#180
post #124
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Identifying the relative effects of two courses of action is nowhere near a straw man. Merriam-Webster definition of straw man: a weak or imaginary opposition (such as an argument or adversary) set up only to be easily confuted Stating the actual side-effects of one course over the other is neither weak nor imaginary.

There are two different buckets of people that OP is conflating: * Those who haven't been infected yet * Those who have already been infected They're ignoring the second bucket, which is what GP was pointing out - only talking about the first bucket and pretending it applies to both.

No. They are addressing the subgroup of the first group of people, who you are ignoring:

* Those who haven't been infected who are wondering if they should not bother with the vaccine if getting infected provides durable immunity.

The answer to that is: the vaccine is orders of magnitude less dangerous than contracting the virus.

Just because you don't address every single group of people in a response does not mean that response is invalid or unimportant.

Post reply on HN