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Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

theguardian.com

331–340 of 441 posts

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In order to reach 1.61 metric tons an individual would not be able to own a gas-powered car, could not regularly consume meat, could not live in remote areas only visitable by plane etc. Many things people don't even consider "luxuries" (like visiting family overseas) would be a non-starter. So literally what was normal life in Europe up to the 80's, even 90s for some regions. It's not difficult to imagine how to ac…

Are electric planes physically impossible or just not realistic with current oil prices and no carbon tax?

“Why Electric Planes are Inevitably Coming”

https://youtu.be/aH4b3sAs-l8

tldr: They’re already being deployed in some shorthaul routes.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, once again, over again, yet again, one more time, you have another of the alarmist, angst, anxiety statements with no science support -- all the attempts at science to support such statements have no predictive value and, thus, are not science. I gave a link to solid evidence of the lack of predictive value. And the doomsday predictions such as your "it'll already be 20-30 years too late" are irrational, irres…

Ah wonderful another rationalist with no ability to reason

The usual for bad Internet debating and communications: Attack the person and not the arguments. If you have some credible evidence, trot it out.

It is my writing here that is rational and the responses to it that are irrational -- my post was down voted and "flagged" out of view with no meaningful responses.

Again, the alarmist predictions of disaster were made and found wildly wrong; I referenced the data.

Bluntly no one knows how to take data on CO2 from human activities and accurately predict CO2 concentration and temperature or in any meaningful sense the effect of the CO2 on temperature. Nearly all the attempts to do this were wildly wrong.

The global warming alarmists are as irrational as using leach bleeding to forestall another eruption of Yellowstone, of old religions making "sacrifices" to ensure good climate. The Mayans killed people to pour their blood on a rock to keep the sun moving across the sky -- the global warming alarmists are following the same irrationality.

Since my post was "flagged" out of view, I will repeat the post here now:

There is a lot of hand wringing, worrying, blaming about evil, short sighted, negligent, irresponsible humans doing serious damage to the environment and the planet and causing disastrous, dangerous, destructive world wide climate change, global warming, rising sea levels, etc.

There is no end of what we can worry about, e.g., Yellowstone erupting, another Krakatoa, having the atmosphere of the earth blown off by the blast from a supernova, etc.

But just now the claim that human sources of CO2 are having significant effects on the climate, temperature, sea level, etc. are the source of a lot of angst and anxiety.

So, we need to filter, separate possible disasters for which we have good evidence and can do something about from the endless number of disasters for which we have no credible evidence.

For human sources of CO2: So far there is no, none, nichts, nada, nil, zip, zilch, zero credible evidence that human sources of CO2 have had, are having, or will have a significant effect on the climate, temperature, sea level, etc. No evidence that is credible.

All the credibility was lost, blown, thrown away, destroyed by the many predictions of significant temperature increases that didn't happen, as in the well known

http://www.energyadvocate.com/gc1.jpg

As a result, the alarm, angst, anxiety, hand wringing about human sources of CO2 is irrational, foolish, irresponsible, and supporting an industry of hysteria that is just a flim-flam, fraud, scam on the backs and in the pockets of billions of people and making a few people rich.

While we know very well how to measure temperature and how to average it, we don't even have meaningful measures of climate.

For the science that might be relevant, essentially all of it fails to be science because it has long shown to have no predictive value.

In response, until there is credible evidence that human activities can do good things for the climate, we should just junk the alarmists and forget about human sources of CO2.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A very vocal front sees this as an opportunity to do all the things the socialists and central planners wanted anyway What if they're right? Should we all go down with the ship just to maintain some sort of dogmatic pride in our preferred economic system?

That’s backward. The fact that they want to shovel union labor requirements into a bill dealing with climate change indicates that the climate change part isn’t a serious threat.

Why is it backward? Unions enable general strikes which enable wide-ranging policy changes.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#334

I think back to how we have responded to this pandemic. We were in denial until the pandemic was spreading unchecked wildly through the population, and even a good chunk of the population is still in denial after 100,000s of dead. We are a hopeless species when it comes to organizing effective collective action ahead of known disaster. We seem to only respond collectively once disaster has struck, and even then it ta…

That's because deep down inside on a subconscious level every human knows Earth is overcrowded and overpopulated I'm native American I see it everywhere I look North America can only support so many people only have so much fresh water everyone ignores it

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#335
post #229

Before someone makes the inevitable joke, no this will not help offset climate change temperature gains and neutralize the risk of heat-waves. The summer temperatures will continue to get hotter. It's the winter temperatures that will get colder. Both require energy use to keep housing liveable. Which, unless we dramatically transition our energy generation to renewables, will just continue exacerbating the climate p…

Or, redesign houses to not need nearly as much energy for heating and cooling, preferring natural heating via the sun and cooling via breeze. https://www.codylundin.com/codys_house.html

The problem with that is in North America they used to build as much as they possibly wanted why because there were a ton of trees to cut down and build stuff with. That phase is over now we have to import wood. Redesigning stuff is not a good idea if you're talking about reconstruction. I always think about the fires of San Francisco completely decimated the whole city. They cut down the largest redwood trees the whole Forest of them to build all that and then it just caught on fire.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While I agree nuclear is the right way to go... it's frankly too late to put all our eggs in that basket. It takes over a decade just to turn on a new plant in the US due to all the regulations. We can work to improve that situation, but at the end of the day, solar and wind can be deployed much faster and at a lower cost. I've heard this exact same thing said for 20 years. I expect I'll be hearing it for another 2…

You will be continuing to hear about wind and solar for the next 20 years for good reason: they're finally taking off. Wind production in the US has grown from about 2 million megawatt-hours / month in 2005 to 33 million megawatt-hours / month today. Solar production in the US has grown from 1.5 million megawatt-hours / month in 2014 to 17 million megawatt-hours today. Building new wind and solar is now cost-competit…

Yes I'm sure I will, because that sounds exactly like what was being repeated 20 years ago. And I will keep hearing about it for a long long time while many new gas and even coal plants get built with their 50 year lifespans.

Funny thing about this movement. It's caused more greenhouse gas emissions than just about anything. Anti-nuclear "environmentalists" are just about the best friends the fossil fuel industry has ever had. You'd almost think the whole thing was orchestrated by them, that's how great the partnership has been for them.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess the joke flew over your head :P

I guess you're on the wrong website.

No worries, I don't usually joke much on HN. Sometimes jokes work here, maybe climate change is a bit too polarized.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah wonderful another rationalist with no ability to reason

The usual for bad Internet debating and communications: Attack the person and not the arguments. If you have some credible evidence, trot it out. It is my writing here that is rational and the responses to it that are irrational -- my post was down voted and "flagged" out of view with no meaningful responses. Again, the alarmist predictions of disaster were made and found wildly wrong; I referenced the data. Bluntly…

Raising the temperature in a pot on the oven will in time lead to the same state of boiling temperature. Especially if closing the lid. Greenhouse effect is also settled science (please see demo on youtube). So exact predictions are not required, unless you want specific detailed mitigation and weather reports.

There is scientific consensus, but it seems some people lack the bandwidth to process the information and the inherent uncertainty, objectively. Instead of emotional content, it's better to listen to experts on scientifically peer-reviewed basis:

https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet Reagan (with Bush as VP) signed the Montreal Protocol. And Bush 41 created the acid rain pact with Canada (PM Mulroney). A lot of blame goes to Bush 43 ("Dubya") for a lot of things, but I generally view him as a patsy for those around him that actually made the decisions and pushed them through.

When in doubt, always blame Congress and not the president. Newt Gingrich is a bigger player here than either Bush.

[deleted]

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In many cases, people are not willing to do the theoretically/physically best/most energy efficient solution because it’s much, much cheaper to not. My house is ~100 years old structural brick. The insulation on most of the vertical walls is just the plaster, air gap, and 9” of brick. As we remodel (very slowly), we insulate with spray foam, but that remodeling is never driven by energy concerns. It’s vastly cheaper…

>In many cases, people are not willing to do the theoretically/physically best/most energy efficient solution because it’s much, much cheaper to not. This is why we need to change the economics of the situation. If we raise taxes on the very wealthy, Jeff Bezos might not get to go to space, but we could insulate a few hundred thousand houses.

I don’t see a stable and effective long-term alternative to raising carbon-intensive energy prices.

If you create a large pile of government giveaway money but keep energy cheap, people will take the money and continue to use a lot of energy. (I’ll save money on heating and use it to keep the house 74°F instead of 69°F in the winter or to take a vacation to a tropical location.)

Bezos, Musk, and Gates aren’t the problem here. 100s of millions of Americans and a couple billion people worldwide who could all save 2-5% of their footprint are the problem. Incentives need to nudge them each a little rather than confiscation and redistribution of the wealth of a few dozen people. It can be comfortable to think “I don’t need to change; we just need to tax the ultra rich”, but the reality is closer to the opposite.

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