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Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

theguardian.com

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Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#261

Post by AJ007 »

WJW wrote: post #175
jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

I love the optimism here, everyone always states this like the tipping point is sure to be in the future. TBH, it seems equally likely to me that the last year we could seriously avoid major climate change was in the early 1990s.

James Lovelock's last books certainly would agree with this.

Perhaps we may get lucky and some event could throw things the other direction, like a large meteor impact or wide scale nuclear weapons discharge (leading to a lengthy nuclear winter.)

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#262

Post by nomel »

jacquesm wrote: post #163
rayiner wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting billions of people to work together cooperatively to do something was always a complete pipe dream. It’s the fantasy that, this time central planning will work, because this thing is so important. We should have been throwing money at carbon capture technologies decades ago.

It's called 'trees'.

Here's a fun challenge: Go to google earth and zoom straight in on the US. Try 10 random spots. How many spots had somewhere that trees could be placed, without tearing up crops?

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#263

Post by relax88 »

thewarrior wrote: post #257
ChuckMcM wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not wrong. It has been my position from the start that we should advocate for minimizing human impact on the climate and invest in surviving the change that those who will not heed that advice will create. I can recommend the book "Apocalypse Never" by Michael Shellenberger. While I don't agree with all of his points he does call out some of the factors that drive unnecessary hype. Perhaps one of the biggest…

Can we actually get knocked back into a feudal existence ?

Why not? Corporations are more powerful than ever. We have a vast technological surveillance and propaganda machine ready to go.

All that’s missing is a weakening of the state and a few private drone armies.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#264

Post by rationalist2948 »

_y5hn wrote: post #235
rationalist2948 wrote: post #202

There is a lot of hand wringing, worrying, blaming about evil, short sighted, negligent, irresponsible humans doing serious damage to the environment and the planet and causing disastrous, dangerous, destructive world wide climate change, global warming, rising sea levels, etc. There is no end of what we can worry about, e.g., Yellowstone erupting, another Krakatoa, having the atmosphere of the earth blown off by the…

When you accept evidence it'll already be 20-30 years too late.

Again, once again, over again, yet again, one more time, you have another of the alarmist, angst, anxiety statements with no science support -- all the attempts at science to support such statements have no predictive value and, thus, are not science. I gave a link to solid evidence of the lack of predictive value.

And the doomsday predictions such as your "it'll already be 20-30 years too late" are irrational, irresponsible, dangerous, destructive guesses that stand to do serious damage to our economy, hurt billions of people, and make a few people rich. It's a flim-flam, fraud, scam. We need to grow up, be adults, and not fall for such a brain-dead scam.

The potential damage to the economy is obvious and solid; that we are doing or even can do anything significant to the temperature, climate, sea level, etc. is just wild, irresponsible, dangerous, destructive guessing, shooting ourselves in our guts for no good reason.

Again, no credible evidence. Loss of credibility from alarmist predictions that didn't come true. No science with predictive value, that is, no science at all.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#265

Post by vegetablepotpie »

jjk166 wrote: post #234
WJW wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the optimism here, everyone always states this like the tipping point is sure to be in the future. TBH, it seems equally likely to me that the last year we could seriously avoid major climate change was in the early 1990s.

Climate change is not a binary "no harm" vs "worst case" situation where you cross some magical tipping point from one to the other. It is a continuum where the more damage you do, the worse things will be. Even if we are already doomed to some major troubles in the future, there is never a point where it makes sense to give up because it can't get any worse - it can always get worse.

Right, but it’s not completely linear either. There are tipping points, such as a collapse of the arctic ice sheets, savannaization of the Amazon, arctic methane release, which could kick off their own positive feedback loops that cannot be stopped by humans.

Certainly we can do things after that point, but we’ll see much more diminishing returns.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#267

Post by _tom_ »

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

> generation

species

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#268

Post by [deleted] »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #179
jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

You are not wrong. It has been my position from the start that we should advocate for minimizing human impact on the climate and invest in surviving the change that those who will not heed that advice will create. I can recommend the book "Apocalypse Never" by Michael Shellenberger. While I don't agree with all of his points he does call out some of the factors that drive unnecessary hype. Perhaps one of the biggest…

[deleted]

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#269

Post by sammalloy »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #179
jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

You are not wrong. It has been my position from the start that we should advocate for minimizing human impact on the climate and invest in surviving the change that those who will not heed that advice will create. I can recommend the book "Apocalypse Never" by Michael Shellenberger. While I don't agree with all of his points he does call out some of the factors that drive unnecessary hype. Perhaps one of the biggest…

> That aside, some of the early research in climate change actually pointed out that the result of this climate instability may in fact be another glacial period rather than a period of extremely high temperatures. Just as damaging to people and ecosystems but not what a lot of people think about when they think "climate change."

I'm afraid you are the victim of another popular climate denial myth that continues to spread like a virus.

* The 1970s Global Cooling Zombie Myth and the Tricks Some People Use to Keep it Alive, Part I https://skepticalscience.com/70s-cooling-myth-tricks-part-I....

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#270

Post by vegetablepotpie »

jacquesm wrote: post #32

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

I feel passionately enough about this issue to get involved. But I have not found that climate change groups are doing anything I can be involved in.

I signed up for 350.org and I got put on a mailing list. I signed up with Sunrise and there are events to support DC statehood and hand out blankets for the homeless. How do I find people working on GHGs? What now?

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