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Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

theguardian.com

161–170 of 441 posts

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#161
post #153

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

The crazy thing is it _is_ hitting the wealthy parts, but that still hasn't galvanized sufficient response. A very partial list of headline impacts in the first world off the top of my head: - US West Coast droughts and fires - Pacific Northwest heat dome - Texas cold snap - Epic floods in Germany - Australian wild fires - European heat waves - Even when rich SF techies were under a terrifying orange sky, our behavio…

> it _is_ hitting the wealthy parts

Yes, but not the majority all at once.

As long as 51% of the electorate or more hasn't been personally inconvenienced you might as well be Al Gore shouting into the night.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#162
post #12

What would happen if the Gulf Stream did collapse? Would a different similar circulatory system emerge soon after? Would the lack of a dominant system lead to many more smaller chaotic systems? Do we just not know what would happen, so that it's concerning in that it's unknowable?

You can kiss Northern Europe as a habitable area goodbye. So yes, it matters quite a bit.

You can get a slight hint as to what it would look like by looking to the pacific northwest, Canada, Alaska. The northern pacific ocean has a "Gulf Stream" called the Kuroshio. However, there is no appreciable meridional overturning in the north pacific. Thus north-west portion of north america is colder than Europe at the same latitude. Roughly.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#163

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

Getting billions of people to work together cooperatively to do something was always a complete pipe dream. It’s the fantasy that, this time central planning will work, because this thing is so important. We should have been throwing money at carbon capture technologies decades ago.

It's called 'trees'.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#164
post #68

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

We’re inundated with folks screaming about danger and hyping up fear from every angle - everything from economic collapse, to stock market crashes, to apocalyptic visions from every angle about climate, etc. And what most people, especially younger folks, don’t realize is that it’s AlWAYS been this way. And most of the time, when something does blow up, there wasn’t a clear or unambiguous difference between the thing…

It has not always been this way. This is completely new territory for us.

Up until about 1900 nature was in control. Now, humans and domestic livestock are nearly all the land animals that exist. [1] [2]

Climate change is bad--very bad--but its main effect is going to be on other risks. Global thermonuclear war (which is also new in civilization terms) remains the biggest risk (probability x cost). Climate change ratchets up the probability of GTW.

1. https://www.ecowatch.com/biomass-humans-animals-2571413930.h...

2. Graphical representation: https://xkcd.com/1338/

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#165
post #91
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to remember that plastic waste is virtually unrelated to climate change. They both might be "green" issues, but plastic straws in our oceans aren't going to have any significant effect on warming the planet. They'll just end up causing ecological changes/damage. Malicious actors try to conflate the two. Carbon gas emissions pose an existential threat to the future of human society; plastic straws do no…

In fact, the plastic replacements often cause more emissions. Because of production or because more trucks are needed for the same products with thicker packaging. Supermarket chain in my country changed their packaging, the same amount now needs 2 trucks instead of one. Also glass bottles or cardboard are heavier so more fuel consumption.

Reusable "bamboo" cups are a fun example. I'm not sure if they are considered biodegradable anymore and then the fact that some countries in Europe had them remove from market... Due potentially leaching melamine and formaldehyde...

So I take it will take awhile for us to get these things right...

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#166
post #36

I often hear that as individuals we can't really be held responsible for climate change and that instead we should look to our government to impose laws that restrict carbon output. This made me curious: what is the "fair" amount of carbon dioxide that the average individual can emit? According to this article[1][2] published in Nature it looks like the answer is 1.61 metric tons of CO2/year. That strikes me as close…

> That strikes me as close-to-impossible for industrialized nations to achieve. A round-trip flight from NYC to SF emits 1.5 metric tons per passenger. In order to reach 1.61 metric tons an individual would not be able to own a gas-powered car, could not regularly consume meat, could not live in remote areas only visitable by plane etc. So? > Many things people don't even consider "luxuries" (like visiting family ove…

So this would require martial law to implement. Basically no one in the US would accept those restrictions. Doesn't seem politically feasible without a ww3.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#167

Makes me look back at the last 20-30 years of discourse in the United States and let out a deep sigh. Had CFC propellants emerged today, I highly doubt the U.S. would have been a signatory to the Montreal Protocol — just to own the libs or avoid hindering the market by a boogeyman of 0.0001% overhead or some other form of contrarian political identity differentiation.

> Makes me look back at the last 20-30 years of discourse in the United States and let out a deep sigh. George H.W. Bush ("Bush 41") actually had a decent track record on the environment and climate change: * https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/george-h-w-bush-underst... The craziness with the GOP started more recently (post-1990s).

Bush 41's immediate predecessor did not have a decent track record. The craziness started well before 1980. Bush 41 was an aberration.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#168
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can kiss Northern Europe as a habitable area goodbye. So yes, it matters quite a bit.

You can get a slight hint as to what it would look like by looking to the pacific northwest, Canada, Alaska. The northern pacific ocean has a "Gulf Stream" called the Kuroshio. However, there is no appreciable meridional overturning in the north pacific. Thus north-west portion of north america is colder than Europe at the same latitude. Roughly.

I've lived there. Let's say I like the European climate a bit better.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Northwest Russia is habitable. Not that pleasant, but habitable.

For a relatively limited number of people and with a standard of life that doesn't compare to western/northern Europe. It will be 'a bit of an adjustment' to put it euphemistically. I've lived in Northern Canada, which is somewhat comparable to Northwest Russia and sure, it's doable, but civilization as it currently exists in the countries that are exposed to this will cease, the present day number of inhabitants wil…

Novosibirsk, Russia is 1m+ city... with some effort you can live. Russians are obsessed about populating their country all over even in the most inhospitable places vs Canadians who are just fine with living south of 60th parallel.

Re: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Gulf Stream

#170
post #68

After seeing the global chaotic response to COVID I'm convinced that climate change will not receive a meaningful response until it is way too late. It apparently needs to hit the majority of the planet right in the gut (and then preferably the wealthy part) for people to get off their collective asses and do something about it. I'm just about ready to pack it in and hope the next generation is smarter than this one…

We’re inundated with folks screaming about danger and hyping up fear from every angle - everything from economic collapse, to stock market crashes, to apocalyptic visions from every angle about climate, etc. And what most people, especially younger folks, don’t realize is that it’s AlWAYS been this way. And most of the time, when something does blow up, there wasn’t a clear or unambiguous difference between the thing…

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